It's the end of the UK election campaign. Can we learn anything from it?
It’s been a while since Labour winning was a genuine possibility, let alone a likelihood.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, July 4.
In today’s edition: Labour’s battle to win back Auckland, the plan to end our housing crisis, and standardised testing for primary schools is on the way. But first, the final hours of the election campaign in the UK.
The final hours of campaigning
It’s election day in the UK, or it will be in a few hours anyway. By this time tomorrow, polls will be about to close and we’ll learn the initial results shortly after. It’s not expected to be a hugely surprising election result, with many pundits and polls predicting something close to a Labour landslide. Nevertheless, any election in the UK is an important one and a change of government after 14 years would be significant. A Google search of “what would Labour mean for the UK” brings up dozens of articles covering everything from the significance of a change in government for the economy, for the EU, for investors, for beneficiaries – and beyond. It’s been a while since Labour winning was a genuine possibility, let alone a likelihood.
The lessons for New Zealand
I’ll leave a deeper analysis of the election itself to The World Bulletin, and I recommend the latest episode of The News Agents podcast for a whirlwind trip through a busy few days in UK politics, but it’s worth pondering what all of this could mean for New Zealand. The last time Labour was in power in the UK was under Gordon Brown in 2010. The world was a very different place, though there were some parallels – it was the tail end of the global financial crisis and Brown’s government was charged with keeping the economy stable.
Back in May, when the election date was announced, UK-based New Zealand journalist Henry Cooke took a look at what New Zealand MPs will be keeping an eye on this week as the UK heads to the polls (Cooke will be joining The Spinoff’s editor-at-large Toby Manhire to breakdown the election result next week). One element, he argued, is whether inflation coming down can result in a boost for the governing party. Our government will be hoping that if the economy improves throughout 2025, it can ride a wave of positive fiscal winds into the election the following year, an argument made by the NZ Initiative’s Oliver Hartwich in March. In a Herald column this week looking at lessons for New Zealand from the UK election, former Labour minister and Act leader Richard Prebble similarly argued that losing control of inflation is a quick way for voter trust to decline.
The UK-NZ relationship
At his post-cabinet press conference on Monday, Christopher Luxon was asked whether he’d be prepared for a possible Trump presidency in the United States. He gave the typically diplomatic answer that he’d be able to work with whomever was in office, as his job was just to represent Aotearoa. Luxon would have given the same answer if asked about the UK, of course, but a Labour government does not quite so naturally fit with the politics of our current government. Prior to becoming prime minister, Luxon visited the UK on a tour to, as he told Newsroom at the time, “nick and steal” policy ideas. It was on this trip in 2022 that he infamously labelled New Zealand businesses “soft” while speaking at a rightwing thinktank, but he was also due to meet with several high-profile Conservative MPs until Boris Johnson’s resignation as prime minister saw these meetings cancelled.
But regardless of the party governing in the UK, New Zealand’s relationship with the “motherland” remains strong. It was under Labour that New Zealand launched its free-trade deal with the UK, an agreement negotiated first between Jacinda Ardern and Boris Johnson (a leader Ardern once referred to in a tweet as the “gaffe man”, showing politics goes well beyond who is in charge). Luxon affirmed the state of our relationship during a call with UK PM Rishi Sunak back in February, and not long after, when celebrating one year of the free-trade deal, trade minister Todd McClay said the UK was our fastest-growing export market. A change in government isn’t likely to damage this.
The state of the race
To finish, a brief look at the state of the race itself. I noted up the top that there’s seemingly no route to a Conservative victory, and that’s true, but it’s more complex (and interesting) than that. On the latest episode of The Rest is Politics, co-host Rory Stewart observed that, on recent polling, the combined results for the Conservatives and Labour would be a mere 63% – while “historically at the elections in the 50s and 60s, the parties were getting close to 50% of the vote on their own”. It means almost half of voters are heading to smaller parties, a narrative that has parallels to our election last year when Labour and National’s combined result was also around 63%. Meanwhile, as is traditional for a party behind in the polls, a former leader headed onto the campaign trail this week in the form of Boris Johnson – though as The Guardian reported, he didn’t lump praise on Sunak’s premiership.
I’ll leave you with this simply cursed election night graphic from Sky News, shared on Twitter. If there’s one exciting thing about a dull election, it’s tuning into the TV analysis and seeing the creative and sometimes creepy visual effects (remember our own election night Laser Kiwi?)
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The plan to build more houses and make them cheaper
We’ve talked a bit about house prices in recent days, and minister Chris Bishop’s honest (and entirely correct, but politically contentious) view that they’re too expensive. Today, reports Luke Malpass on the front page of The Post, the housing minister will announce a series of reforms to zoning and land rules in an effort to free up land for developers. Bishop will make the announcement in a speech to the Real Estate Institute, setting zoning targets for councils, scrapping urban-rural limits and ditching minimum floor sizes and balcony requirements for apartments.
The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan has also seen a copy of Bishop’s speech, noting that some of the proposed changes – such as those around apartment size – are “bound to be controversial” but Bishop will defend them by saying the current rules increase the cost of new apartments and limit the supply of cheaper properties. “You know what is smaller than a shoebox apartment? A car or an emergency housing motel room,” Bishop will say.
Meanwhile, as RNZ reported, the government has confirmed its refreshed board for Kāinga Ora and laid out new expectations following the damning Bill English review.
Labour’s Auckland challenge
A few weeks ago in The Bulletin, I looked at the challenge facing Labour as it hopes to woo back lost support in Auckland in time for 2026. This week, leader Chris Hipkins and much of the party’s caucus are in the super city to do exactly that, writes Stuff’s Glenn McConnell. They’re here for a two day hui as part of Hipkin’s nationwide mea culpa tour. As McConnell writes, Labour’s support across Auckland almost halved between 2020 and 2023. Hipkins will meet today with mayor Wayne Brown and Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei.
Reflecting on the election result, Hipkins blamed the 2021 lockdown for Labour’s drop in support, but also acknowledged his government had failed to address issues like crime and the cost of living. For a helpful backgrounder on why Auckland is a challenge for Labour going into the next election, I suggest this piece by Duncan Greive on how the city felt forgotten.
Listen to episode 4 of Juggernaut – Quantum Leap
Roger Douglas’s radical overhaul of the NZ economy kicks through the gears. A new investor class gets high on champagne and shares. What could go wrong? A bonfire of subsidies leaves farmers on their knees. Corporatisation sends thousands of state workers to the dole queue. Labour is returned to power in 1987 despite a campaign with starkly contrasting messages. For Lange, victory is bittersweet. When the global crash smashes New Zealand, Douglas seizes the opportunity to go harder, and go faster.
Follow now to make sure you get every episode. Juggernaut was made with the support of NZ On Air.
Plus: On The Spinoff this morning, Juggernaut host Toby Manhire writes on how Richard Prebble tried to save the Lange government with Human Synergistics.
Click and Collect
Could the coalition government’s proposed RMA overhaul get cross-party support? Maybe, reports the NBR’s Brent Edwards (paywalled).
A review has been launched into Wairoa’s flood response as the government adds another $500,000 to the relief fund.
We’ve talked a bit about the potential end of greyhound racing in New Zealand as we wait for Winston Peters to make a call. For her Substack, Emily Writes debunks some of the myths around the controversial industry.
The education minister has announced standardised testing for primary schools, with a phonics test for first year students and progression monitoring for children in years three to eight. You can listen to Erica Stanford discuss this with Newstalk ZB’s Heather du Plessis-Allan here.
Following on from yesterday’s issue of whether inflation is over, The Spinoff’s Shanti Mathias and Joel MacManus reveal how you can host your very own end-of-inflation party.
I’d like to dive deeper into the issue of scams for a future Bulletin (let me know in the comments if this is a subject of issue). In the meantime, Stuff has reported on the latest sophisticated scam circulating – one that threatens court action if you don’t pay up.
The Interislander’s Kaitaki ferry has been missing a stabiliser fin since September 2022, affecting sailings, reports Georgina Campbell for the Herald.
For Newsroom Pro (paywalled), are community groups being pressured to pay for a social return on investment report from a favoured consultancy? Or, as one minister claimed, is that just a “conspiracy”?
Max Rashbrooke writes that life in Aotearoa is increasingly precarious – and young people shoulder the burden. Hera Lindsay Bird visits Dunedin's Kmart, back from the dead. Gráinne Patterson has ideas about how to manage conflict better from the "Love Lab". Gabi Lardies talks to nurses describing “horrible” conditions amid a staffing debate. Hannah Patterson reviews mixed-race anthology Everything That Moves, Moves Through Another.
Pop culture picks, with Alex Casey
Our senior writer shares what you should be reading from the world of entertainment.
I am hugely looking forward to sobbing my way through Inside Out 2 later this evening and even more so after reading this piece about the anxiety about writing about anxiety.
If this story didn't make it screamingly obvious, I am still not sick of the gut-punching Lorde x Charli XCX remix. I loved this piece on Ensemble where 10 women yarn about how it made them feel.
If you ever wake up in the middle of the night and wonder "hmm what happened to serial killers?" and then never sleep again, here is the interview for you. Sweet dreams.
This was a fascinating read about the painstaking process of getting an Air NZ safety video across the line – and makes some of the flubs from over the years seem even more gobsmacking.
That’s it for The Bulletin today, thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow.
Let me know in the comments, or get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz, if you have any feedback on today’s issue or anything in the news.
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The idea that UK Labour and NZ National are hugely ideologically divergent parties is flat out wrong.
For a Government that purports to favour decentralisation and putting decision-making in the hands of communities, they sure do love their central-invoked education mandates! While the current approach is not National Standards (thank goodness), it appears the lessons have not been learnt. Increasing testing will do nothing to lift educational achievement (just as weekly reporting on attendance won't reduce truancy), especially without an increase in learning support and similar resourcing (e.g., an increase in SEG and ORS funding).