Your no-frills guide to Budget day
Expectations have been as carefully managed as the day itself but it is still an election year - here's what we can expect from Budget day and what to look out for
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, May 18 by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: police confirm Loafers fire being treated as arson and a homicide investigation is underway; a softening on proposed cuts to council funded services in Auckland; the New Zealand Book Awards winners; but first, your essential Budget day reading
The day ahead
Budget day. One of the most ritualistic days in the political year. The finance minister has already posed with a copy of this year’s budget and as with last year, the photo on the cover was taken by Grant Robertson himself. Robertson understands Hipkins will gift him a tie as Jacinda Ardern did but opted for “no comment” when asked if he trusted the prime minister’s fashion sense. RNZ has this very good guide on what to expect today. Journalists will enter a lock up at 11am and The Spinoff’s Duncan Greive will be there. We’ll have live updates and reactions from 2pm once the embargo lifts.
Not too much, not too little but just right
This year, expectations have been even more carefully managed than last. Before its “Support for today, Building for tomorrow” title was revealed yesterday, Budget 2023 has been ascribed the no-frills moniker for a few weeks now. Writing for The Post, Luke Malpass describes (paywalled) Robertson’s dilemma this year as the "goldilocks” problem. The cost of living must be addressed but it mustn’t be inflationary. We very clearly have some large infrastructure demands with an estimated $210b infrastructure deficit but right now, the focus is on the basics of cyclone recovery. Describing “the iron law of New Zealand politics where the National party will make an impossible promise to cut taxes while maintaining services as is; and the Labour party will make an equally impossible promise to maintain taxes as is while increasing services”, Morgan Godfrey writes that while the well-signalled restraint of this year’s Budget is sensible in the short-term, the continued deferral of infrastructure spending is reckless.
What’s been announced and a few picks on what to look out for
The government has already announced a nearly $1b flood and cyclone recovery package, as well as funding for climate change, the New Zealand Defence Force and education. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie has a very good rundown (paywalled) on what to look out for in the fiscal and economic forecasts that accompany the Budget. The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan makes his picks on what to expect today across a range of areas including health, transport and infrastructure, housing and climate change. Also on the Herald, Simon Wilson (paywalled) has a list of six rabbits he thinks Grant Robertson needs to pull from the hat, one of which is former Te Whatu Ora chair, Rob Campbell. Wilson also makes a final bid for tax reform but we’ve been told many times, tax is off the agenda for today’s Budget.
Tax will still be a major election issue
It might be off the agenda for today, but as Stuff’s Susan Edmunds writes, tax will still be a major issue for this election. Edmunds has a good rundown of seven tax proposals that are likely to be in the spotlight this election including the need to adjust tax brackets. Deloitte tax partner Robyn Walker said “if tax thresholds weren’t addressed in the Budget, there would be pressure on the government to reveal a policy on the issue soon after.” The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll showed more than half of voters want a wealth tax. Following National’s fiscal discipline measures announcement on Monday and requests for more detail, National party leader Christopher Luxon has said he is waiting for the latest economic figures before the party releases its tax and fiscal plan.
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Loafers fire being treated as arson and a homicide investigation is underway
Yesterday afternoon, Acting District Commander Dion Bennett confirmed a homicide inquiry was under way and the fire at Loafers Lodge was being treated as arson. Police also said “fewer than 20 people remain unaccounted for” and Bennett’s “gut feeling” is that the death toll may rise although nothing further could be confirmed with the scene examination still underway. Prime minister Chris Hipkins has asked housing minister Megan Woods to look at whether building regulations for high density accommodation are fit for purpose. Newsroom's Jo Moir has spoken to Green party co-leader James Shaw who has pushed back on suggestions that now isn’t the time to be asking questions. “That’s exactly what you hear out of the National Rifle Association every time there’s a shooting in the United States,” he said. If you haven’t read this account of the day of the fire from Stuff’s Nikki Macdonald and Mike White, I recommend it. “A roof over your head is better than no roof, except when it burns down and kills you,” said Loafers resident Simon Hanify.
Auckland’s mayor backs down on arts and social services funding cuts
Wayne Brown says he’s listened to public feedback and will suggest reducing proposed cuts to arts and social services as part of the council’s budget. Programmes that will receive funding in the proposed budget include Citizens Advice Bureau and funding for regional events, arts, and culture. Newsroom’s Matthew Scott highlights that Brown reiterated that softening those cuts relies on councillors supporting a budgetary approach that uses a range of levers including asset sales, debt, rates hikes and service cuts. As BusinessDesk’s Oliver Lewis reports this morning (paywalled), the council has appointed an Australian consultant to provide advice on the possible sale of its 18.09% shareholding in Auckland airport.
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Ockham New Zealand Book Awards winners announced
The Spinoff books editor Claire Mabey has all the details of the book awards winners, announced last night in Auckland. Catherine Chidgey won the fiction prize for The Axeman’s Carnival. The audience was told the star of that book, Tama the magpie, had been due to make an appearance but had been removed by security. It’s the second time Chidgey has won the fiction prize after a win in 2017 for The Wish Child. Alice Te Punga Somerville won the poetry prize for Always Italicise: How to Write While Colonised. Ned Fletcher won the general non-fiction prize for The English Text of the Treaty of Waitangi and Nick Bollinger, who many will know as the voice of RNZ’s The Sampler for a long time, won the illustrated non-fiction award for Jumping Sundays: The Rise and Fall of the Counterculture in Aotearoa New Zealand. In other literary awards news, Himali McInnes, a family doctor in Auckland has won the Commonwealth Short Story Prize for the Pacific region for her story, Kilinochchi.
Click and collect
The government has largely agreed to eight of the nine recommendations made by the Commerce Commission in its residential building supplies market study - this morning’s editorial from the Herald (paywalled) says the Commission’s response to the issue was inadequate
National says the prime minister must explain ‘brain drain’ targeted ads that were running in Australia
Are you unwittingly helping to train your AI replacement?
More wet weather expected for the top of the North Island today
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Duncan Greive assesses TVNZ as broadcasting minister Willie Jackson stares down a generational opportunity for change. The Loafers Lodge fire is the product of twin crises of housing and poverty, writes Bernard Hickey. For The Quarter Million, dancer Lusi Faiva describes her experience in an institution for people with intellectual disabilities. Stewart Sowman-Lund explains why low measles vaccination rates are so concerning. Mad Chapman argues that shitty memes, as referenced in an indepth piece from RNZ on Topham Guerin’s Covid contract (see below), can be an effective communication tool but the ones in question were just bad work.
Shitty memes
RNZ’s Anusha Bradley has the story Mad Chapman has referenced about advertising agency Topham Guerin’s very short-lived stint working on Covid communications. The agency, known for its work with Australian Liberal Party, the British Conservatives and hired by the New Zealand National party for the upcoming election, were brought on to work on the Covid campaign by former Police Commissioner Mike Bush for a $500,000 contract making memes. The contract was meant to last three months but the work only lasted a few weeks. Bradley has spoken to those working for police who felt uncomfortable about the request to post 20 “shitty memes” in one day.
