With two weeks to go, what do we know about Budget 2024?

The prime minister has made it clear this is a no frills budget, in all but name.

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, May 16 produced in partnership with Blind Low Vision NZ.

In today’s edition: A landmark human rights case involving a transgender man and the Department of Corrections, it’s one year on from the Loafers Lodge fire, and suspended Green MP Darleen Tana passes an unpleasant milestone. But first, a look at this year’s budget with two weeks to go.

A budget of managed expectations

We’re now just two weeks away from Budget 2024, which means the pre-announcements and the teases are ramping up day by day. Yesterday, prime minister Christopher Luxon addressed the Auckland Business Chamber where he laid out some further breadcrumbs about the budget. BusinessDesk’s Jem Traylen has a good rundown of the speech here, while Newshub published it in full. Most of it we’d heard already – this was mainly an exercise in managing expectations. One thing Luxon did make clear is we shouldn’t get too excited. He could easily have called it a “no frills budget”, but that was last year’s moniker under a different government. Instead, the PM said that it will be “basic”, with “no bells” and “no whistles”. This year’s budget, he said, shouldn’t be “a surprise”. So have we heard it all?

We’ve already been promised a lot

While yesterday’s Auckland Business Chamber audience, who each forked out over $100 for lunch and to hear from the PM, were promised a “significant” announcement, that didn’t eventuate. But there have been a few big ones in recent weeks. Judith Collins unveiled a $571m defence spend. Mark Mitchell announced new corrections funding for Waikeria. David Seymour confirmed a pared-back school lunches programme. And Erica Stanford announced funding for structured literacy to be taught at all schools. All of this comes out of Budget 2024, with Luxon reiterating yesterday that the government had achieved its aim of $1.5bn in savings courtesy of the public sector cuts. What the government is keeping close to its chest is details of its long-promised tax cuts. Luxon and Willis have both maintained that this will not require new borrowing, and the prime minister reiterated this yesterday, but the precise details won’t be known for another fortnight. Earlier in the year, former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told RNZ that tax relief in the face of the current financial circumstances didn’t make sense and the coalition should focus on balancing the books first. I looked at that claim and more on the coalition’s fiscal challenges back in March for The Spinoff. 

What the budget won’t be

Much like her boss, finance minister Nicola Willis has also been clear that this month’s budget won’t contain “big spending”. During a speech in the Hutt Valley last week, she said this would be a “moderate, responsible budget”. And it won’t be austerity either, as Luxon told yesterday’s audience. Dan Brunskill at Interest noted that while both Luxon and Willis are focusing on restraint, across the ditch, Australians have just been thrown several major treats in Anthony Albanese’s latest budget. “Luxon's speech contrasted against the newly-released Australian budget which lifted net spending by AU$24 billion and will shift the federal government from a surplus to deficit,” wrote Brunskill. Luxon did offer a glimmer of optimism about the state of the economy in this speech, noting “promising signs of progress”, as The Post’s Thomas Manch reported. We’ll find out next week whether our official cash rate changes, but the latest predictions are that it won’t – all the more reason for the government’s cautious approach. Sticking with the economy, the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan looks at the warnings over a “structural deficit”, which he calls a “a very serious, very bad thing”.

Why should we care?

Budget Day is a landmark event in the annual political calendar, but that doesn’t make it any less confusing – or explain why it’s something that garners so much attention. The Herald’s Liam Dann wrote a handy explainer a few weeks back looking at what a budget actually is and why it matters. It’s paywalled, but the most basic detail, Dann wrote, is that the budget outlines the government’s spending plan. Given the ongoing cost of living crisis, that makes it important for everyone – where the government chooses to invest our money has a ripple effect. And we’ll find out more about all of this in just 14 days.

Behind the roller door: what’s happening in the humble New Zealand garage?

As it turns out – way more than just cars. New national research commissioned by AA Insurance looked into how New Zealanders with garages are using them.

What they found was colourful and varied. From textile workshops, to fermentation stations many hobbies and intriguing items are contained within. And when you add family heirloom pianolas in the mix, the contents of the Kiwi garage truly know no bounds.

Enter the garage, here. (sponsored)

Trans Corrections officer brings landmark human rights case against employer

An exclusive long read from The Spinoff’s Alex Casey today looks at a landmark human rights case involving a transgender man and the Department of Corrections. It represents the very first time that a transgender person will be at the centre of a discrimination case based on sex, and will test whether or not gender diverse people are adequately protected under the Human Rights Act, which has remain unchanged since 1993. “The case exposes a current gap in protection, particularly in the public sector, which needs to be addressed with input from the trans community,” Nicole Browne, senior solicitor at the Office of Human Rights Proceedings told The Spinoff. “Ultimately, the Human Rights Act 1993 is about the inherent dignity of all of us, and that must include being safe at work.”

One year on from the Loafers Lodge fire, what’s changed?

In the early hours of May 16, 2023, the first call to emergency services came through about a large fire at Wellington’s Loafers Lodge on Adelaide Road. It later became clear that not everyone had made it out, and five residents of the 92-room hostel were later confirmed to have perished in the blaze, while 20 others were injured fleeing the burning building. One year on, The Post’s Rachel Thomas looks at what’s changed and whether it’s enough to prevent another disaster like this. “We had hoped the fire would generate a response from the community that actually, we’re going to do better for people,” said Wellington city missioner Murray Edridge. “I don’t believe a whole lot has changed.” In a media statement this morning, building and construction minister Chris Penk said the government was working hard to improve building fire safety. “I’ve prioritised a full review of the fire safety provisions in the Building Code. This is the first full review of the fire safety provisions in more than a decade and focuses on how we better protect people and property.”

• More reading: I highly recommend this Sunday Essay about the lodge and the fire published on The Spinoff a few months ago by Kristin Kelly.

Can you help?

We're keen to get to know listeners of The Fold podcast better! Please complete our short survey and help us tailor our content to your preferences.

Click and Collect

• Suspended Green MP Darleen Tana has now spent more sitting days out of parliament than in it this year, despite continuing to earn her full MP pay check. It’s been nine weeks since an investigation into claims against Tana was launched.

• Stuff has acquired the Wairarapa Times-Age newspapers and website. It follows NZME’s recent purchasing of the Gisborne Herald, as the two biggest online publishers expand their regional presence.

• The Cancer Society is warning the government will need to substantially increase the medicines budget otherwise its promise of quickly approving medicines will be a “dead end” for patients.

• Ground control to major Fogg: A great headline and a great story from BusinessDesk about Fix and Fogg’s recent space expedition, and the “nuts” marketing ploy.

• The Warehouse Group has switched another 34 stores and sites across Auckland to solar energy.

Right now on The Spinoff

Liv Sisson reports that while you can eat food past its best-by, the reason these dates exist is complex. Claire Mabey has all the winners from the Ockham book awards, where Emily Perkins took home the top prize for fiction. Alice Neville argues that if the police minister loves gang numbers so much, he should be upfront when asked about lowering them. Helmut Modlik explains why Ngāti Toa is standing up against the fast-track bill. Matariki Williams talks to Ngāhuia Te Awekōtuku about her new book Hine Toa. Shanti Mathias explains why the new version of charter schools will probably be as controversial

Pop culture picks, with Alex Casey

The Spinoff’s senior writer gives you some must reads from the world of pop culture.

• It is tools down for The Block NZ, as the eleventh season of Three's juggernaut reality show has been cancelled. “It is disappointing to see the end of The Block and what it means to the industry," said host Mark Richardson. "It was a cool show and people loved watching it." Three remains on the hunt for contestants to join the new property series On the Ladder.

• The trailer for the second season of The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power has dropped and I really enjoyed Polygon's breakdown of all the confounding moments and creatures, including "Chekhov's Balrog" (never forget which beloved local personality loathed this "dreadful" series)

• Huge week for Childish Gambino/Donald Glover fans – he's making a trip down under to perform in Auckland in January 2025 AND Mr and Mrs Smith is returning for a second season. More new Prime Video content announced this week included a Legally Blonde prequel and a Tomb Raider series helmed by Phoebe Waller-Bridge. What a time to be alive and watching screens.

• For more, subscribe to The Spinoff’s Rec Room newsletter.

That’s it for today, thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow morning.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

If you liked what you read today, share The Bulletin with friends, family and colleagues.