Where it all went wrong for Labour – and how the Greens could be partly to blame

Did the government allow itself to be too easily outflanked on the left?

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, October 24, by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: Coroner’s inquest into March 15 attacks begins in Christchurch; ED nurses sign protest letter over unsafe staffing; Auckland Anniversary forecasting failures due to ‘unprecedented’ rainfall. But first, with accusations that Labour is acting like the Greens’ “handmaiden”, how deep are divisions on the left?

Is Parker readying a leadership bid?

The gossip about Chris Hipkins messaging with new partner Toni Grace was the most shared tidbit from Andrea Vance’s merciless dissection of Labour’s loss (paywalled), but the real issues identified by a litany of anonymous insiders ran much deeper. Blame is cast in all directions: from the “sluggish” response to the cost-of-living crisis in 2022, to the response to the parliament occupation, to Jacinda Ardern’s “selfish” decision to quit. Among the more likely culprits was the abandonment of a wealth tax, which had been championed by then revenue minister David Parker. Now he’s gunning for Hipkins’ job, reports the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan (paywalled), who says Parker’s potential challenge is “far more advanced than Labour is publicly letting on”. 

Labour has a Green Party problem – and vice versa

Another of the issues identified by Vance’s Labour sources is a perceived capitulation to the Green Party, particularly in the central Wellington seats (there’s an inside look at how the Greens won Wellington this morning in The Post, paywalled). “The Labour Party are acting like the handmaiden of the Greens,” one insider tells Vance. “We have not even attempted to give the Green-curious demographic – Gen Z, urban, younger voters – a reason to vote Labour over Green.” It’s an argument expanded on this morning on The Spinoff, in a must-read column by Ollie Neas. While the Greens are rightly celebrating their increased haul of MPs, the veneer of success is actually a mirage, he argues. The Greens and Labour are each caught in a catch 22: “Unless and until Labour veers left, the Greens have little hope of winning the radical changes that are central to their vision. But the diversion of left wing organising energy into the Greens prevents that shift from happening, leaving Labour hostage to the conservative, poll-obsessed factions that the Greens decry as sell-outs.”

The ‘Belgian waffle’ makes an unexpected return

On Sunday Vance was back with part two, this time looking at how National achieved victory. The party capitalised on the widespread mood for change with a “formidable, old-fashioned, ground game” and a disciplined approach to messaging, she reports. The campaign wasn’t without its stumbles, of course, including the controversy over its foreign buyers tax policy. Some spoken to by Vance blame former minister Todd McClay, “who they say was given responsibility to check for loopholes” in the policy. The man nicknamed the “Belgian waffle” (a reference to McClay’s years as a diplomat in Brussels) was demoted by Luxon but has since “relentlessly worked his way back in” – potentially all the way back into Cabinet. A Toddnaissance would be a surprise, but not half as big a shock as James Shaw joining a National government. That’s the prospect raised by Dileepa Foneska in BusinessDesk (paywalled), who thinks National will try to reach a “creative accommodation” with the Greens to make up for its lack of expertise in the climate change arena. 

David Seymour and race relations: a shifting perspective

When a policy is as central to a party’s current identity as opposition to co-governance is to Act, it’s easy to assume it’s always been the case. Not so, says Eugene Bingham for the Sunday Star-Times (paywalled), in a story tracing David Seymour’s apparent change of heart on the Treaty and race relations. The David Seymour of 2014 sounded like “someone who is optimistic about the direction of Crown-Māori relations”, and “seeking to take Act in a different direction” from the racially divisive positions of former party leader Jamie Whyte, Bingham writes. Today, Seymour denies it’s him who’s changed; instead he says he’s responding to the troubling direction taken by state institutions, particularly the courts, over recent years. It’s an issue that Seymour passionately believes in, says commentator Ben Thomas, but that doesn’t mean the Treaty referendum is a non-negotiable: “There are always compromises to be made, that’s what politics is.”

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Coroner’s inquest into March 15 attacks begins in Christchurch

Over 600 people are expected to attend the first stage of the coronial inquest into the Christchurch mosque shootings which begins today, report Anna Leask and Katie Harris in the Herald. The hearing, which was delayed by the gunman’s prosecution and then by the Royal Commission of Inquiry, is focused on the events of March 15 itself. Families hope it will answer a number of lingering questions, especially about the actions of emergency response teams. Some of the questions families want answered include whether victims could have been triaged more quickly, whether an emergency exit door at Al Noor Mosque failed to function, and whether the gunman acted alone. “The evidence before Coroner Windley runs, so far, to nearly 3000 documents, nearly 4750 images, 2720 audio files and more than 80 hours of video,” Leask and Harris report.

ED nurses sign protest letter over unsafe staffing

Urgent meetings about improving safety in Auckland Hospital’s emergency department (ED) took place this month after more than 150 ED nurses signed a letter of complaint, the NZ Herald’s Alex Spence reports (paywalled). Staffing limits are being “consistently breached” and it’s affecting the quality of care on offer, said the letter which was signed by most of the department’s nurses. At the subsequent meeting, nurses were told fulltime staffing numbers will increase from 170 to 194 by March as a result of a recruitment drive and new graduates joining the department. National Party MP Dr Shane Reti, who is expected to become health minister, has said that emergency medicine is one of two areas of the health system which he wants the new government to focus on, along with aged care. 

A message from Spinoff editor Madeleine Chapman

Thanks to the generous support of Spinoff Members, we were able to cover this election more expansively than ever before with writers reporting from Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, New Plymouth, Wairarapa, Gisborne, Auckland and Northland. With the results in, we will continue to interrogate and report on those who lead this country with rigour, range and humour. If you value The Spinoff’s political coverage, now is a great time to join the thousands of people who support The Spinoff by becoming a member or making a donation.

- Madeleine Chapman, Spinoff editor

Auckland Anniversary forecasting failures due to ‘unprecedented’ rainfall

MetService has defended its overall handling of this year’s extreme weather events, after an internal review found its models for the Auckland Anniversary floods were “poor”, failing to forecast the amount of rainfall or degree of severe flooding caused by the deluge, RNZ’s Krystal Gibbens reports. MetService chief executive Stephen Hunt says the “unprecedented” amount of moisture in the atmosphere made it very hard to forecast Auckland’s extreme rainfall in January. The forecasting models for Cyclone Gabrielle the following month worked well, he says. AI-informed weather models are being developed to help address situations like the one in January, he says. The Auckland floods also highlighted a need to focus on MetService’s alerting service, he added.

Click and Collect

• The embarrassing skeletons in Labour’s closet that a new National government is likely to expose (paywalled). 

• Residents of Auckland’s Eastern Bays say “no thanks” to a proposed drive-through McDonald’s.

• Kiri Allan is writing a book.

• Canterbury University students say they’re feeling shaken after weapons and ammunition were found in a halls of residence in Ilam (paywalled)

Right now on The Spinoff

Edward Miller and Craig Renney have an idea to help Chris Luxon cure New Zealand’s ‘productivity disease’. Toby Manhire has some advice for Labour to avoid the bedlam and bloodletting that’s all too common among losing political parties. Tara Ward talks to the producer of Shepherdess, a new documentary about the lives of rural women. David Hill writes in defence of Labour Day. Monica Evans reflects on why emergency C-sections can feel like failure. Allen & Unwin NZ’s Jenny Hellen reveals how to publish a bestseller. Calum Henderson finds out why a New Zealander has written a book investigating the notorious “owl theory” in the Staircase murder case.

Sporting snippets

• World Rugby is investigating an allegation that Springboks hooker Bongi Mbonambi used a racist slur during the semi-final against England.

• Afghanistan have pulled off another Cricket World Cup upset, “thumping” Pakistan by eight wickets.

• The NZ Warriors have extended Andrew Webster’s contract as head coach through to the end of the 2028 NRL season.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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