What will be making headlines in 2025?
Treaty issues will dominate the first six months, but that's not all.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, January 13.
In today’s edition: LA wildfires continue to rage, the prime minister heads to the UAE, and a look back at some of our summer reissues on The Spinoff. But first, welcome back to The Bulletin for another year.
Happy new year
Welcome back and happy new year to all of you. I hope you managed to have a peaceful summer break. I spent as much time as I could in the sun and with my puppy, often at the same time, and am ready to dive back into the headlines with you every morning. Today, we’re going to take a little look at some of the issues we can expect to see a lot more of over the year ahead. If you’d like some more outlandish predictions for 2025, you can find our January 1 piece here – it includes my (quite) tongue-in-cheek suggestion Winston Peters may choose not to give up the deputy prime minister’s role to David Seymour and Toby Manhire’s slightly more realistic call that incoming US president Donald Trump could make his way to New Zealand in the next 12 months. You can listen to Toby expand on that claim in a special Gone by Lunchtime here.
Speaking of Trump and New Zealand, Newsroom’s Sam Sachdeva has an interesting piece looking at how our government may choose to navigate increasingly complex international issues this year.
Treaty issues to dominate first half of 2025
Unsurprisingly, race relations are going to dominate the first few months of the political year. As Toby Manhire reported last week, submissions on the controversial treaty principles bill briefly closed due to technical issues and were extended through until tomorrow afternoon. That will have pleased both sides of the debate, each seeking to prove they have the support of the general public. Ahead of the extension, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer told Newstalk ZB that the technical disruption to the process had broken peoples’ “trust and confidence” in the system.
There’s still a lot of water to flow under the bridge. While the deadline for submissions is now tomorrow, those submissions still need to be heard – many of them in person. This will overlap with the traditional start of the political year: commemorations at both Rātana and Waitangi. The PM, Christopher Luxon, has already he confirmed he will not be in attendance at the latter. The Guardian’s Eva Corlett reports that record crowds are expected to gather at the treaty grounds next month.
But it’s not just the treaty bill. As Daniel Perese reported for Te Ao Māori News, consultation will also close tonight on another proposed bill that has flown somewhat under the radar: the Regulation Standards Bill. Critics claim it “threatens to entrench a framework that marginalises Māori voices and undermines Aotearoa’s founding partnership”.
Coalition tensions
It felt at times as though the treaty bill threatened to break apart the coalition in 2024. Expect those tensions to be even heightened over the next 12 months. For starters, as aforementioned, there will be a change in deputy prime minister in May. In reality, it shouldn’t mean much, but given it also signals the half way point of the government’s term in office it also means we’ll just be 18 months away from the next election. It opens up a clearer pathway to campaigning for Winston Peters, who told The Post he intended to “hit the ground running” from May. David Seymour and Act will also be jockeying for political capital. Late last year, reported RNZ’s Anneke Smith, Seymour was already arguing that his party had wielded “disproportionate” influence in government.
In an illuminating report for the Herald last year (paywalled), Claire Trevett reported on the state of the relationships between the three major party leaders. The PM, it was said, had developed a positive working relationship with Winston Peters since taking office, while his relationship with Seymour was described by one insider as “transactional”.
Local politics back in the spotlight
If you felt like you were missing something in 2024, it was probably an election. Aside from a mayoral race in Tauranga and the largely ignored Entrust election in Auckland, we weren’t given any opportunities to head to a polling booth last year. Bring on the local elections, then. In the main centres, one would think that Auckland’s Wayne Brown is likely to have a pretty clear run at this point, though we’re yet to learn whether any high profile challengers will step forward. TVNZ’s Q+A noted that the five local elections over the past 14 years of the super city have not featured an incumbent losing, only retiring.
The race with the most interest is likely to be Wellington. Mayor Tory Whanau has had a troubled time in office, with council facing the wrath of the government over the failure to approve an annual budget. In better news for the council, Whanau has welcomed the sale of the city’s Reading Cinema complex, which comes ahead of plans to revitalise Courtney Place.
More reading:
Greater Auckland’s look at some of the things we can expect to see this year.(Greater Auckland)
What else do you think will be making headlines this year? Any topics you’d like to see me cover? Let me know in the comments.
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PM heads to the UAE, but cuts trip short
Christopher Luxon is kicking off the year with a brief visit to the United Arab Emirates. As the Herald’s Adam Pearse reports, the prime minister will hold an official meeting with UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan as well as other ministers and members of the royal family and attend the signing of a free trade deal with the nation. But the trip will be shorter than originally planned as Luxon heads back to New Zealand on Thursday to attend the funeral of killed Nelson policewoman Lyn Fleming.
More reading:
Mining sector eyes gains from UAE trade deal (Newsroom)
Name suppression extended for man accused of murdering Nelson police officer (1News)
LA fires still blazing and could grow
At least 16 people have now perished in the large wildfires still raging in Los Angeles, The Guardian reports. The biggest fires remain less than 20% contained and officials have warned that strong winds in the coming days threaten to see the blazes grow. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, said on Sunday the fires would be the worst natural disaster in US history “in terms of just the costs associated with it, in terms of the scale and scope”.
More reading:
Gavin Newsom slams Trump's disinformation about California wildfires (NBC)
How likely is NZ to get wildfires like the ones in LA? (The Post)
Two fires in same day near Tiwai Point (Star News)
Listen: One final Newshub bulletin for Sam Hayes and Mike McRoberts
A summer reissue of The Fold that’s well worth listening to. On the day Newshub came to a close, Duncan Greive spoke with long-serving hosts Samantha Hayes and Mike McRoberts. The pair look back across the history of 3 News and assess its singular culture and some crucial moments from its past.
Inside the urgent race to solve homelessness in Aotearoa
On The Spinoff this morning, a republish of one of our most in depth pieces from 2024. As homelessness hits an all-time high, New Zealand’s frontline organisations are embracing unconventional and innovative strategies. Joel MacManus takes a closer look at the crisis and meets the people who claim to have the cure.
To support work like this, consider becoming a Spinoff Member.
Click and Collect
A must read from The Spinoff over summer: Miriama Aoake pays tribute to the co-founder of Te Pāti Māori, Dame Tariana Turia, who died at the start of the year.
Appointment wait times for children seeking ADHD assessments are “a hell of a lot faster” in the Bay of Plenty and Lakes public hospitals than most of the country.
Value of student loans written off at death triples over a decade.
For Herald Premium subscribers, Audrey Young writes on the forgotten protests of the 1970s and how Labour PM Norm Kirk interfered in her arrest. (paywalled)
Hollywood stars have been spotted around Ōamaru as filming gets under way for the Netflix adaptation of John Steinbeck’s East of Eden.
The Desert Road between Tūrangi and Waiouru will close for maintenance for two months from today.
Our summer reissues continue this week. Toby Manhire revisits the Moment of Truth after 10 years. Shanti Mathias asks when stripy polyprop disappeared. Hera Lindsay Bird shares a taste of what’s being lost with the end of funding for Archives New Zealand’s digitisation programme. Nick Iles finds the remarkable pie shop hidden in a Porirua industrial estate.
That’s it for another day – and welcome back. Thanks for reading and see you tomorrow.
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I’ve missed your morning summaries - the holidays are such a boring dead zone, so welcome back!
Welcome back team... but now I feel even more blah! Still looking forward to intelligent analysis and equally intelligent commentary from my fellow "Spinoffers"