What was achieved on climate under Ardern and what challenges remain?

Described as a generation’s nuclear free moment by Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins says it's a major intergenerational challenge. Progress on climate was made under Ardern but a long list remains

In today’s edition: Politicians head to Rātana today; university looking into impact of ChatGPT; additional funding sought for lifeguards; but first, what to expect from climate policy and the weather this year

The Mercury Bay Boating Club, Coromandel (Image: supplied/RNZ)

Fewer set pieces, more debate

I want to look at one of the big issues I meant to cover last week before the political year got started earlier than expected. Thankfully it ties in nicely with a comprehensive rundown this morning from Stuff’s Eloise Gibson and Olivia Wannan on what was and wasn’t achieved on climate under Jacinda Ardern and what the next prime minister/prime ministers will do. Marc Daalder also has a summary of what to expect on climate policy this year. With fewer policy set pieces and an election, Daalder expects there to be more debate on climate change. Up for discussion are the role of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the prioritisation of adaptation and mitigation, the fitness of our methane targets and the obligation (financial and otherwise) we owe to the rest of the world for our historic emissions.

Climate change initiatives unlikely to go under Hipkins

Asked about climate change at his first prime ministerial press conference on Sunday, Chris Hipkins replied: “Climate change remains one of the major intergenerational challenges we face as a country and as a planet and we owe it to future generations to continue to work to make sure we are tackling the challenge of climate change. That’s not going to change.” Re-reading yesterday’s article by Thomas Coughlan (paywalled) about which policies may be on the chopping block, Coughlan doesn’t expect major energy, transport and climate adaptation policies – including light rail in Auckland and the ongoing work on investigation into building a huge hydroelectric scheme in the South Island – to get the axe.

Last year was the warmest on record

Niwa has calculated that 2022 was the warmest and eighth wettest year on record since meteorologists started to measure temperatures in 1909, beating out the last warmest year on record, 2021. As we know, 2023 started with Cyclone Hale, estimated to have caused millions of dollars of damage. The Mercury Bay Boating Club in Whitianga is the latest organisation dealing with the issue of managed retreat after coastal erosion caused by the storm carved out six metres of sand in 24 hours. It’s unlikely they’ll be the last. Unveiled last August, the country’s first national adaptation plan was released and there are still plenty of questions about cost and timing to address. La Niña weather patterns had a big role to play in the cyclone and we may shift into an El Niño pattern this year. Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll says that, combined with global warming, it’s a recipe for a concerning picture from late 2023 onwards.

Marine heat waves and glaciers melting

The west coast of the South island is currently experiencing a marine heat wave. Jamie Morton outlines what that means, with an alarming note on the impact it may have on our glaciers. I haven’t put two and two together before but this 2018 RNZ article schooled me, with research showing a strong connection between sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea and temperatures in the Southern Alps. Warm temperatures reduce the potential for any of the snow that fell in the previous winter period to be retained through summer and into next year. We will know more about the state of the glaciers once scientists conduct their aerial survey at the end of summer.

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Rātana: Poroporoaki for Ardern expected, Adrian Rurawhe to announce election intentions

Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon head to Rātana Pā today. The Herald’s Michael Neilson and Adam Pearse have a good rundown on what we can expect. That trip usually signals the start of the political year, especially for Labour politicians after an alliance was signed between the party and the Rātana church in 1936. A poroporoaki is a farewell and it’s expected that Ardern’s time as prime minister will be acknowledged, while Hipkins will be welcomed and challenged. Significantly, Adrian Rurawhe is the first Rātana member to be Speaker of the House. Rurawhe has said he will announce his intentions for the 2023 election today. It’s expected he will stand aside from the Te Tai Hauāuru seat and go list-only.  I think 1News’s Maiki Sherman was the first to clock this last year, but it potentially offers Te Pāti Māori an opportunity. Gone By Lunchtime’s Annabelle Lee-Mather shared her thoughts on that on last year’s GBL round up (about 52 minutes in).

A chatbot didn’t write this but academics are worried about “the internet on steroids”

It’s probably time we covered ChatGPT in the Bulletin. ChatGPT is a natural language processing tool driven by artificial intelligence (AI) technology. AI is one of those things that either inspires a panic spiral of foreboding or wildly unfounded enthusiasm. The truth probably lies in the middle. Dylan Reeve asked ChatGPT to write an explainer on itself for The Spinoff. Technology news site CNET has been using it to write financial explainers, although they are riddled with errors. ChatGPT does raise the very real spectre of cheating and plagiarism for teachers and academics, but as this New York Times piece highlights, they are getting their heads around it and thinking differently about the future of education. The University of Otago is currently collaborating with Australian and Canadian universities to address ChatGPT’s impact. Otago Business School dean Robin Gauld asked ChatGPT to deliver a 1500-word essay. It was “fairly well-written” but struggled with citations. ChatGPT may dream of one day writing an early morning newsletter but for now, I think I’m safe.

Funding request for more lifeguards

As the Herald reports, the unpatrolled beach at Tawharanui Regional Park where a person drowned recently is one of two beaches that will get paid lifeguards next summer if a funding application is successful. Surf Life Saving Northern Region is seeking an extra $455,000 from the Auckland Regional Amenities Funding Board (ARAFB). That funding comes via a ratepayer levy that’s been in place for over a decade which funds culutral and recreational amenities in Auckland. It wouldn’t require an additonal pot of money to be found - just more from an existing one. There have been six drownings at Auckland beaches since last Friday.

Click and collect

• Nine out of 10 hateful posts tracked in darkest corners of the internet targeted Jacinda Ardern

• New Zealand Council of Trade Unions survey shows that majority of workers don’t think income has kept up with the cost of living

• Decline in national home values slowing but investors remain cautious

• The “7.0 earthquake” that New Zealanders never felt this month

• The partying penguins who escaped their pens in Dunedin

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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