What should the population of New Zealand be?

A fork in the road appears for New Zealand as views on population growth and pandemic recovery diverge

In today’s edition: government set to force supermarkets to supply rivals; Gaurav Sharma now facing expulsion from party; Trevor Mallard to formally step down today; but first, the immigration conundrum.

How big should New Zealand be? (Getty Images)

What should we call the current state of immigration affairs? 

Many nouns have made an appearance after the word immigration in government announcements and commentary. We’ve had an immigration reset and an immigration rebalance recently. Bernard Hickey has called Sunday’s announcement of changes to the settings for short-term migrants, a backslide. As an everyday woman on the street who can see we have workforce shortages, a problem with economies of scale, a problem with a reliance on low-wage migrant labour, a problem with productivity and a $104b infrastructure deficit, I’m running with immigration conundrum. Ultimately the question is how big should New Zealand be and how do we accommodate that?

A population of nine million?

Newsroom Pro’s Jono Milne has talked to a few people to ask them exactly that question. Some have even been willing to take a punt. Kirdan Lees of consultancy firm Sense Partners doesn’t want politicians or bureaucrats setting population targets but believes that if you opened up immigration settings fully, the market would determine that the population would grow by four million in 10 years. As Milne writes, last week's Reserve Bank monetary policy statement indicated more immigration would help address workforce shortages, which it says is impeding economic growth and contributing to inflation. I linked to this on Monday but Liam Dann (paywalled) at the Herald agrees.

It’s hard to go cold turkey on low-wage labour

In Hickey’s piece on the Spinoff this morning he says we’re “discovering all over again how hard it is to go cold turkey on our economy’s addictions to imported low-wage labour and leveraged-and-tax-free gains on residential land price appreciation”. He is scathing of what he sees as the government reversing course on one of its main economic policies. He’s referring to Sunday’s announcement where exemptions to the median wage minimum for temporary work visa holders were extended, 102 days after May’s “immigration rebalance”. Newsroom’s Matthew Scott also covers concerns about that and outlines how it's at odds with the Productivity Commission recommendations, also made in May.

An endless three point turn

The immigration rebalance was announced ahead of a Productivity Commission report. That report concluded that immigration doesn't threaten jobs for New Zealanders but public infrastructure has not kept up with population growth. The commission also recommended that the government create a policy statement on immigration. That’s due this year. The Infrastructure Commission also presented an infrastructure strategy to the government in May. At the time finance minister Grant Robertson said closing our infrastructure gap would cost $31b over 30 years. Economic growth is impeded by a lack of in-bound migration. More migration is impeded by a lack of infrastructure. Infrastructure investment is impeded by a lack of economic growth. There’s a scene from Austin Powers in my head right now in which Powers finds himself stuck in a real conundrum. You could play it on a loop.

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Announcement on supermarket regulation set for today

Another pick up from Monday’s piece by Stuff’s Luke Malpass. Malpass indicated that there would be an announcement on supermarket sector regulation this week. That has come to pass and Stuff’s Tom Pullar-Strecker has the news this morning that the government is expected to announce today that it will make a law change forcing supermarket groups Countdown and Foodstuffs to wholesale groceries to rival retailers. Competition advocate and Monopoly Watch spokesman Tex Edwards have previously invoked the classics, describing any such move as a “pyrrhic victory’, named for King Pyrrhus who suffered heavy losses in victory against the Romans.

Guarav Sharma expelled from Labour caucus, Brian Tamaki announces political party

Somehow these two things ended up crossing streams yesterday so I thought I’d just round it all up for you. The Freedom and Rights coalition protest thankfully passed without serious incident. The “people’s court” sat and as Toby Manhire writes, the least surprising verdict imaginable was handed down. Brian Tamaki announced that he is forming an umbrella party made up of three other parties. The Outdoors party has since said Tamaki jumped the gun and they are not yet standing under his umbrella. Tamaki spoke after the news about Gaurav Sharma being expelled from the Labour caucus broke, and he subsequently invited Sharma to call him. Sharma is now an independent MP and his actions have been referred to the Labour party's governing council which will decide whether to expel him from the party. Audrey Young (paywalled) writes that Sharma will become “a footnote in history”. 

Speaker Trevor Mallard to formally step down today

Something of a Dr Sharma multiverse yesterday, as the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reports. I feel like I’m standing in front of a board covered in interconnected string and some mugshots explaining this but bear with (or just read Coughlan). During question time yesterday, National attempted to get another question time and debate added this week. It’s thought National were considering giving Sharma one of its spots to speak. Sharma would be protected by parliamentary privilege, meaning he could make defamatory statements without being liable for what he said. Mallard will formally step down as Speaker today and is off to Ireland. Such are the formalities of parliament that it adjourns for a day after a new Speaker is elected, meaning the debate and question time for today are cancelled, hence National’s motions to get additional ones allocated. The motions weren’t successful. 

Click and collect

• Wellington mayoral candidates open to idea of Wellington super city.

• Auckland mayoral candidate now using former candidate’s digital campaign agency, bill disputed with former agency. 

• Plans to develop four offshore wind projects in Waikato, Taranaki and Southland.

• Strawberries all year round a possibility.

• First Air New Zealand plane back from its time in the desert wilderness.

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