What happened in the Māori seats and what could happen after specials

The season of electoral maths continues as number crunching of past special vote tallies suggest Te Pāti Māori could add a fifth seat to its election haul

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, October 18, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: Winston Peters returns to Wellington; Medsafe approves over-the-counter CBD sales; complaint about the leaking of information at Wellington city council leaked; but first Te Pāti Māori have claimed four seats out of the election and the special votes may yield another

Youngest new MP stops by to see great, great, great, great grandfather

New Zealand’s youngest new MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke arrived in Wellington, and one of her first stops was a wall of photos that hangs in parliament. Maipi-Clarke’s great, great, great, great grandfather Wiremu Katene, served in the House of Representatives, and she stopped by to acknowledge him. Maipi-Clarke won the Hauraki-Waikato seat and, alongside Tākuta Ferris, who won Te Tai Tonga and Te Pāti Maori (TPM) co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi, will make up the party’s contingent in the 54th parliament of New Zealand. Katene served in the fifth parliament between 1871 and 1875 and again in the ninth parliament in 1887. The Spinoff’s Tommy de Silva provides an introduction to both Maipi-Clarke and Ferris.

TPM campaign was ‘intentional from the get-go’

It’s fair to say that TPM’s success surprised people but was perhaps less surprising to the party, its volunteers and supporters. Mihingarangi Forbes spoke to party president John Tamihere in the latest episode of Mata, who said the campaign was intentional from the get-go. It’s a crude, slightly unformed parallel to draw, but for me, it’s prompted memories of the Covid vaccination era. As many looked to highly visible, centralised national campaigns to lift vaccination rates, all eyes on central government, it turned out one of the most effective approaches was a far less visible effort. By now, most people should be familiar with the success of TPM’s candidates in four of the seven Māori seats. Based on provisional results, the party has also, in all instances, doubled its share of the party vote on 2020 election results. Turnout looks to have been lower, which may be yet another example of the story that’s shaping up about Labour voters staying home.

Will Winston Peters and NZ First be needed to form a government?

As Christopher Luxon said on Tuesday, pressed once again to shed some light on coalition negotiations in this post-election information vacuum, many people will be “interviewing their typewriters” at the moment. I think it’s evident to all by now that election limbos breed speculation and guessing games. As I set out to type “that may change after the specials” yet again, some people with far better data skills and longer memories than I have had a crack at answering the immutable question MMP elections in New Zealand pose: will Winston Peters and NZ First be needed to form a government? The Herald’s Chris Knox and Julia Gabel have not only presented data about the impact of special votes on past elections but created an interactive tool where anyone can have a go at answering the NZ First question. You have to take a punt on how many electorate seats you think Te Pāti Māori will get and how many special votes there will be. The question that precedes the NZ first question is whether TPM will pick up another electorate seat once special votes are counted and final results are announced on November 3. There were 39,938 special votes cast in the Māori electorates in 2020.

Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau in play for TPM

The seats in play for TPM are Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau, where just 400 or so votes separate Labour and TPM candidates. Graeme Edgeler has had a go at looking at those seats and the possibility that Te Pāti Māori may cause an overhang by gaining an extra seat and change the overall shape of parliament. As he notes, Te Pāti Māori did 66% better on special votes in 2020. As Mihingarangi Forbes notes in that episode of Mata, most parties are talking up their special vote prospects. Edgeler says he is making no predictions, and nor am I. Fifteen days to go, and we can all down tools on the guessing games and the graphs!

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Winston Peters returns to Wellington

More of the very little news out of Wellington. NZ First leader Winston Peters returned to the capital yesterday and, as clearly signalled by Peters, answered exactly zero questions. Members of the public at the airport were more vocal, yelling, “Go Winston, we love you, woohoo” and “Give those Act party bastards hell”. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie argues (paywalled) that Christopher Luxon’s desire to “conduct government formation negotiations discreetly” is not a failure of transparency. The Green party caucus assembled, and co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw refused to confirm whether they intended to remain in their roles for the entire term. Stuff has a breakdown on the gender and ethnicity mix of the new parliament. Shanti Mathias continues her noble work of introducing all the new MPs to us, this time focusing on the Act and Green parties.

Medsafe approves over-the-counter CBD sales

Good pick up from Newsroom Pro’s Andrew Bevin on the evolution of New Zealand’s medicinal cannabis regulatory regime. Bevin reports (paywalled) that the Ministry of Health’s medicine safety unit Medsafe has reclassified cannabidiol (CBD) products from prescription only to a restricted medicine, meaning pharmacists could sell it. The ministry’s Medicines Classification Committee had previously advised against over-the-counter CBD sales. The CBD compound doesn’t have psychoactive effects like the more commonly known THC and is used to treat pain, anxiety and sleep disorders. Hold your horses, though, as there are no CBD products currently approved for use in New Zealand. It’s a bit complicated. A medicinal cannabis product that was not approved by Medsafe but did meet the minimum quality standards of the Misuse of Drugs (Medicinal Cannabis) regulations has been able to be accessed via a prescription from a registered medical practitioner.

A message from Spinoff editor Madeleine Chapman

Thanks to the generous support of Spinoff Members, we were able to cover this election more expansively than ever before with writers reporting from Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, New Plymouth, Wairarapa, Gisborne, Auckland and Northland. With the results in, we will continue to interrogate and report on those who lead this country with rigour, range and humour. If you value The Spinoff’s political coverage, now is a great time to join the thousands of people who support The Spinoff by becoming a member or making a donation.

- Madeleine Chapman, Spinoff editor

Click and Collect

• Complaint about the leaking of information to media at Wellington city council and details of external inquiry about leaking leaked

• Tradies are unhappy with the training apprentices have been getting from Te Pūkenga

• We will be able to talk about inflation every month soon as Stats NZ is launching a new monthly inflation tracker

• Auckland Museum asked for Harbour Bridge to be lit up in solidarity with Israel

• Erin Brockovich was in town (the real one, not Julia Roberts) and had a message for communities trying to tackle the issue of water pollution

• Perversely enjoyed watching Patrick Gower attempt to simulate a menopausal hot flush and then do a live cross about a sinkhole. Quite poetic.

Right now on The Spinoff

Stewart Sowman-Lund reports on an Electoral Commission investigation following a complaint of inappropriate behaviour by a polling booth worker on election day. Claire Mabey sketches out a plan to increase turnout on election day. Joel MacManus reports on plans by the Green party to fill the council seat vacated by Tamatha Paul. Alex Casey reviews Netflix’s Beckham. Gabi Lardies recaps the fashion of election night for a final glorious instalment of Shop the Fit. Author and illustrator Giselle Clarkson recalls a hilarious moment of pubic speaking (not a typo) for The Spinoff Books Confessional.

Sporting snippets

• The Black Caps have now won four matches in a row at the Cricket World Cup after beating Afghanistan

• All Blacks side named to face Argentina at Rugby World Cup semi-finals

• Insufficient evidence to conclude drugs were used during Hawke's Bay post-match celebrations where the Ranfurly Shield was split in two

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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