Verdicts on National’s tax policy roll in
As the last sitting day of parliament dawns, National’s tax policy is being assessed from all angles. From Voodoo costings and vote winning, here's how it landed
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, August 31, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: $107.7m shortfall forecast for tertiary education providers; government commits to a nationwide rollout of successful mental health response model; Rotorua mayor’s DIY solution in lieu of being provided with more police but first, the last sitting day of parliament as verdicts on National’s tax policy roll in
The last sitting day has arrived
Congratulations, we’ve made it to the last sitting day of parliament. A number of bills were referred to Select Committee yesterday and last night, including the bill to lower the voting age for local government elections. Jono Milne at Newsroom has a read on the fiscal implications of that as raised by councils. We’ll get into the assessment of National’s tax policy shortly but I just want to touch on the first reading of one bill last night that has been championed by Ashley Jones. Jones left her abusive marriage in January 2020 but found herself in separation limbo for two years before she could file the divorce papers. Jones has written about her experience for The Spinoff twice, documenting her advocacy and the way divorce laws allow abusive partners to continue to control those who leave. Jones spoke to The Post about the bill’s first reading, describing it as a “momentous occasion”. The adjournment debate will be held today and that will wrap up the 53rd New Zealand parliament.
‘Voodoo costings’ says finance minister
Onto the waterfall of news and commentary on National’s tax policy released yesterday. Newsroom’s Marc Daalder has a good topline explainer. National has proposed four new lines of revenue to cover the cost of its $14.6 b plan over four years. These include a 15% foreign buyer tax on the purchase of houses worth over $2m, ending the commercial building depreciation tax break, closing an online gambling loophole and immigration levies. Newsroom’s Matthew Scott has more on the immigration levies this morning. Finance minister Grant Robertson took particular issue with the $740m per year National cited as resulting from the foreign buyer tax, calling them “voodoo costings”. Robertson said “The plan relies on more and more foreign buyers coming into the New Zealand market every year, despite putting a tax on them. It also beggars belief that there are that number of homes available every year to be bought up by foreigners to fund National’s tax cuts.” Robertson was going for it yesterday, calling National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis, “Tricola Willis”, which I presume is a nod to trickle-down economics.
The fishhooks
RNZ’s Jane Patterson has a good rundown on the plan’s potential fish hooks. Patterson notes that “the headline figures National is offering to New Zealanders are enticing and would stack up for many families” but that if you dig a little deeper “there are some fishhooks that may take off the some of the gloss - namely, scrapping half price and free public transport and little extra direct support for low-income families.” In addition to the new revenue lines National is proposing, it is also looking to reprioritise funding from other initiatives. It will revoke funding for free public transport for children, while also effectively doubling the price of fares for youth under 25 if it wins the election. National will also redirect all future Emissions Trading Scheme proceeds to fund the tax bracket indexation at the heart of its policy, implementing what they call a “carbon dividend”. Marc Daalder has reactions from economists, who are somewhat sceptical of the plan.
How it might play for voters
Assessing it from a political point of view and its potential to garner votes, Business Desk’s Pattrick Smellie declared the plan “electorally competitive” (paywalled). The Herald’s Liam Dann labelled the policy a “vote winner” (paywalled). Newshub’s Jenna Lynch described it as “a masterclass in political marketing”, with a particular nod to the use of the fortnightly figures and smashing together of childcare credits to get to the billboard-friendly figure of $250 a fortnight. To end, reaction to the plan from people on the street. It’s a mixed bag, but “free money is free money” might nail how it’s being perceived by those who stand to benefit.
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$107.7m shortfall forecast for tertiary education providers
As The Post’s Gianina Schwanecke reports this morning, a Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) briefing to education minister Jan Tinetti forecasts a $107.7m shortfall for tertiary education providers off the back of falling student enrolment numbers. TEC will cut its funding to the institutions by $52m as a result of the fall in student numbers, despite Victoria and Otago universities asking the commission to hold off. As RNZ’s John Gerritsen reports, the TEC briefing also revealed that the commission thinks previously announced plans for 400 job losses at Te Pūkenga did not go far enough and it’s more concerned about the national polytech’s long-term plans for transformation than about its most recent and current deficits. The Tertiary Education Union said the commission had overstepped its brief and its statements about job losses had alarmed its members.
Government commits to a nationwide rollout of successful mental health response model
The government announced yesterday it would commit to rolling out a mental health response plan nationwide. The model involves a multi-agency response from police, ambulance staff and mental health experts to emergency calls when they’re coded as coming from a person in mental distress or threatening suicide. As Newsroom’s Emma Hatton reports, the National party allocated $8 million to police to trial co-response models in Auckland, Christchurch and Palmerston North in 2017. Labour wound the plan back when it came into government. An evaluation of a pilot of the approach by the University of Otago found fewer than a third of people in distress ended up in the emergency department on days when the co-response team was working a shift compared with close to half when it wasn't.
Rotorua mayor’s DIY solution for community safety
Rotorua’s mayor Tania Tapsell has been asking for more police on the beat, saying the council has been spending up to $1.8m a year on security guards because there weren't enough police available. Her concerns about police numbers come after a spate of attacks on young people. Tapell spoke with police minister Ginny Andersen on Tuesday about initially raising her concerns on RNZ that morning. Andersen told Newsroom following the meeting that it was for the Police Commissioner, district, and area commanders to make calls about police deployment – not her. RNZ reports this morning that the police minister has promised more officers but Tapsell says she was not confident that was going to happen, and in the meantime, she’s announced a new community safety hub. Tapsell says it’s about ensuring the city “has a place in the middle of the CBD focused on safety but also focused on community support.” She said the hub would coordinate community patrols, security guards, police, and Māori wardens in one place and would be established in about two months.
Click and Collect
A year of grocery prices, tracked
Direct flights between New Zealand and India (paywalled) move a step closer
Australian Voice referendum will be on the same day as the New Zealand general election - here’s a good explainer on the referendum
US president Joe Biden privately admitted to feeling ‘tired’, a new book reports. I mean, who among us has not…
Is August too early to start selling advent calendars? Is $14.50 too much to pay for a sausage roll? Is three times too many times for “Up the Wahs” to be entered into Hansard?
In the final instalment of The Side Eye, Toby Morris investigates a small town mystery and uncovers a hidden gem. Dylan Cleaver reports on the organisational revolution that could be on the cards for NZ Rugby. Gabi Lardies launches our new election series ‘Shop the Fit’ with a breakdown of a recent ensemble worn by Chlöe Swarbrick. Jan Tinetti tells us which book she thinks is overrated in the latest The Spinoff Books Confessional. I ask why the possibility of two women leading a political party in New Zealand is considered radical.
Sporting snippets
New Zealand Rugby executives labelled “out of touch” ahead of the release of the review of its governance structure today (see Dylan Cleaver’s story above for more on that)
1987 Silver Ferns reunite, travelling to Dame Lois Muir so she could attend
“Court 17 definitely smells like Snoop Dogg’s living room” — a pungent marijuana smell is stinking up the US Open
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