Trump attack could help former president return to the White House
The day the US presidential race changed forever.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, July 15.
In today’s edition: A trip through the Cook Strait could soon take even longer, have we beaten inflation, and how Te Anau rallied behind tennis star Lulu Sun. But first, the day Donald Trump was shot and what it could mean for the White House race.
The day everything changed
Yesterday started off as any normal Sunday, but will now forever be remembered as the day that an attempt was made to kill Donald Trump. This piece on The Guardian breaks down the key events of July 13 (US time) and includes footage of the dramatic moment Trump was pulled off stage by the secret service, appearing to mouth the words “fight, fight” while pumping his fist into the air, blood running down his right cheek. The photos of the alleged assassination effort were quickly shared around the world, upending the already contentious race for the White House. It’s the first attempted assassination on a US president in more than 40 years. At least one attendee of Trump’s rally was killed and two were left seriously injured, while the gunman, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by law enforcement.
Politicians unify in condemnation
The attack has seen lawmakers around the world unify in their condemnation of political violence. In the US, president Joe Biden, who has been under pressure from members of his own party to step aside from the presidential contest, spoke to Trump by phone. Earlier, Biden told reporters there was no place in America for violence like this. “It’s sick, it’s sick,” he said. “It’s one of the reasons why we have to unite this country.” Speaking today, Biden reiterated this call, saying “nothing is more important” than unity at this point. The shooting has seen efforts to replace Biden as the Democratic candidate for president put on pause, reported NBC, while the Biden campaign has stopped television ads attacking Trump.
Closer to home, New Zealand’s prime minister Christopher Luxon, who has just been in the United States, condemned the attack. “No country should encounter such political violence.” With Luxon on personal leave this week, the acting prime minister David Seymour said that “non-violence” was essential to democracy, sentiments echoed by others like foreign minister Winston Peters and Labour’s Chris Hipkins.
Trump supporters rally behind former president
While the immediate aftermath of the attack was centred around how the gunman was able to pull off his attack, and how serious the former president’s injuries were, discussion now turns to what it could mean for the US presidential election in November. Everything has changed, the Daily Telegraph’s Tony Diver wrote in this piece republished by the Herald. “The attempt on Trump’s life is a stark reminder of how a single, groundbreaking, moment can upend an already tempestuous campaign.” The Post’s Luke Malpass makes a similar argument this morning, noting that Trump will be emboldened by this attack and capable of engineering it to his political advantage.
It’s not just commentators making these claims. This report from Politico suggests that some Republicans view the attack as giving Trump a leg up for the presidency. “This will energise the base more than anything,” said one Republican congressman. Photos of the former president cover newspaper front pages around the globe. The image of Trump, fist raised in defiance, is an “indelible portrait of our era of political crisis and conflict”, writes Benjamin Wallace-Wells for the New Yorker. It’s in many ways akin to the president’s mug shot from last year. Both are shocking in distinct ways, and both may see fans of the former president rally behind him with greater intensity. This report from the Washington Post earlier in the year looks at how the image of Trump’s scowl as he was indicted became a powerful image for his supporters, even being printed on merchandise.
Attack symbolises a peak in political tension
The moment Donald Trump was shot feels like it will be one of those events that you forever remember where you were when you found out. But should any of us be surprised that the political temperature in the United States hit this dramatic boiling point? RNZ’s Tim Watkins argued no, writing that while it’s inarguably a shocking moment, “we reap what we sow and the bitter division and cynicism apparent in America's public debate has been all too obvious for some time”. Even as politicians from across the spectrum unanimously condemn the attack on Trump, some have decided now is the moment to blame Biden, reports the New York Magazine. One Republican, Mike Collins of Georgia, outright accused the incumbent president of sending “the orders”. It illustrates the divided time we live in.
We’ve seen flickers of that polarisation here in New Zealand too, like in the fiery scenes outside parliament during the 2022 occupation or the horrific abuse and imported conspiracy theories targeted at some of our political leaders. But even in those moments, New Zealand avoided gun violence. The alleged shooter in the US reportedly used an AR-style semi-automatic rifle. They were outlawed here in the wake of the 2019 Christchurch terror attack, but some could return to gun ranges under the coalition government. The attempted assassination of a former president should be an opportunity to try and bridge any political rifts, but perhaps it threatens to tear them wide open as we head towards November 5. Trump’s initial response to the attempt on his life was posted on social media platform Truth Social, in calm and concerned language – whether he remains that way as he returns to the campaign trail, we’ll soon find out.
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Review of Tory Channel safety could mean longer, more scenic trip
The trip across the Cook Strait could soon be longer (but more scenic) following a review of ferry safety. It comes after the dramatic grounding of the Aratere ferry, since believed to be caused by human error. The Post’s Tom Hunt reports that three options are on the table as the Marlborough District Council harbourmaster considers allowing ships to continue using the “higher risk” Tory Channel or making ships go via Queen Charlotte Sound, which could add an hour to travel times. The solution to safety concerns was previously going to be the arrival of new, larger ferries, but this was scrapped by the coalition government. Since the grounding, it has recommitted to new ferries but aims to keep costs well below previous expectations.
Have we really beaten the battle with inflation?
We’re due to find out later in the week, writes the Herald’s Liam Dann (paywalled). In the year to March 31, the annual rate dipped to 4%, well below the 7.3% peak in June 2022. But it’s still higher than the Reserve Bank’s target of 1-3%, meaning interest rates have stayed elevated. Expectations suggest we’re well on track for inflation to dip below 3% in the latter half of the year, though maybe not this week. ANZ and ASB have picked annual inflation will be at 3.3%, while Westpac has more cautiously predicted 3.5% (about where the Reserve Bank has previously forecast).
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While all eyes are on the Trump campaign, the assassination attempt also leaves Joe Biden in a tricky position: can he bring the country together?
I recommend this week’s Sunday Essay for The Spinoff which ties into our new political podcast Juggernaut (find that here). Ross Vintiner was David Lange’s press secretary from 1983 to 1988. On the 40th anniversary of the election that swept Lange into power, he reflects on one of the most beloved – and complex – figures in New Zealand politics.
Kelly Dennett at The Post looks at Winston Peters’ history of promoting conspiracies in the media (in this case, nautical conspiracies).
On The Detail, how Te Anau rallied behind tennis star Lulu Sun.
Reading Cinemas is for sale – but the Wellington City Council has ruled out making a bid.
Buy now, pay later providers to start doing credit checks under crackdown.
Auckland Council wants to fast-track flood prevention work that would save 51 Māngere homes.
In his latest Windbag column, Joel MacManus explains why Wellington is considering a switch to land value rates. Amid a rental shortage, the increased threat of eviction will make tenants think twice before complaining to their landlord, write a group of housing researchers. Venetia Sherson revisits her hometown, Te Aroha, nearly 60 years on. For the latest My Life in TV, Rhiannon McCall on making guilt-free reality TV. Hera Lindsay Bird reviews the immersive debut novel from The Spinoff’s own books editor Claire Mabey. And Just Janie shares her perfect weekend playlist.
That’s it for this morning, thanks for reading. I’ll see you back here tomorrow.
Let me know in the comments, or get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz, if you have any feedback on today’s issue or anything in the news.
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Hoping that past is precedent & the only thing that happens to the US Presidential race from the failed assassination attempt is that his rabid supporters stay rabid supporters - it is not going to convince anyone to change allegiance & there is a lot of time for the immediate effects to be well gone by Nov. I do note that the unhinged chaos agents on the right are already bringing conspiracy theories about the white Republican male who was using an AR-style weapon favoured by the gun lobby/Republican gun fanatics. If I didn't want to ensure I didn't descend to the same mentality & lack of humanity as his rabid supporters, I would be tempted to say "pity the shooter didn't at least disfigure him so he stepped down due to his enormous vanity "
Certainly, if the media keep showing/talking about and beating it up the way they are, it might have an effect. I hope not. And let's not run off into conspiracy land either. Political assassination is a horrible thing.