Three Waters gets put out of its misery
The name is gone, but how much have the government's much-maligned water reforms really changed?
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Friday, April 14, by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: why Uber is loving the public transport crisis; inflation looking worse here than in many other countries; and can NZ double our electricity industry over the next 30 years? But first, a rebrand for one of the government’s biggest political headaches.
So farewell then, Three Waters
By the time prime minister Chris Hipkins stepped up to the mic yesterday morning, word was already out. As revealed earlier this week by BusinessDesk and others, Three Waters has gone to the big policy bonfire in the sky. In its place is Affordable Water Reform – a rebranded Three Waters, minus the now-politically toxic name and with a few major tweaks including an increase in the number of water management “entities” involved. The original plan for just four to cover the entire country had attracted widespread criticism from the start. Now there will be 10 entities, largely drawn over regional council boundaries, giving local communities more control over their own water – but also increasing the overall cost to the ratepayer. Still, the government says the reforms will bring substantial savings compared to doing nothing at all: between $2800 and $5400 on average per household, per year by 2054.
Mayors split on new plan
The government is also de-emphasising “co-governance” as part of its rebrand, in the hopes of ameliorating public opposition to the reforms. But councils are the main target audience for the announcement, writes Stuff’s Thomas Manch. Some of them still aren’t convinced. Mayor Nigel Bowen tells the Timaru Herald the changes are once again “a case of Wellington thinking it knows what’s best for South Canterbury” while Mackenzie District mayor Anne Munro says the real issues are “assets being expropriated without compensation, and no real property rights over these assets”. Those voicing support include Local Government New Zealand and Ngāi Tahu which says while it preferred the previous plan, the new one is still “a significant improvement on the pre-reform status quo”. Another group no doubt cheering the change: all the long-suffering journalists (like yours truly) who can finally stop caring whether Three Waters should be capitalised or not.
Meanwhile, the water crisis continues
They might differ on policy specifics, but nearly everyone agrees that water reform is desperately needed. The crisis was highlighted this week by the release of Our Freshwater 2023, a damning report on the state of our waterways from the environment ministry and Stats NZ. It found that 46% of all our lakes larger than 1 hectare are in poor or very poor health, while 45% of rivers are unswimmable. According to Greenpeace, the government’s water reforms are missing a crucial step by failing to regulate the dairying and fertiliser industries – “the industries that are polluting drinking water in the first place”. But farmers say they’re doing their best. “We all want the same thing,” Federated Farmers’ Colin Hurst tells Stuff. “Farmers are part of the community as well, and we want good, clean water quality as well. It's not going to happen overnight.” It’s an uphill battle given the explosion in dairying over recent decades. In Canterbury, for example, the dairy cattle herd increased by a staggering 973% between 1990 and 2019, from 113,000 to 1.2 million animals.
Water – and the lack of it – an international concern
New Zealand is far from the only country confronting hard choices on water usage. While aging infrastructure, safe drinking water, and better wastewater and stormwater services are the urgent needs driving reform here, in the western US it’s the water supply itself that’s at risk. With the Colorado River Basin experiencing a 23-year drought, its worst in 1,200 years, the states that rely on the river are being threatened with massive government-mandated cuts to their water supply. It’s hard to overstate the impact on cities like Las Vegas, which gets 90% of its water from the river and whose residents are now facing huge and permanent changes to their way of life.
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Who wins when bus services are withdrawn?
It might seem like everyone’s losing out from the current public transport crisis, but as Shanti Mathias points out today on The Spinoff, that’s not entirely true. Rideshare services like Uber and Ola are big winners, seeing major jumps in usage when buses and trains are cancelled. And while that’s nice for them, it’s sucking more cash from the pockets of the very people who need affordable transport the most. The combination of fewer buses and more rideshare cars makes traffic worse, too. “As more vehicles are on the road, it creates more traffic, and buses you might rely on are stuck behind a bunch of cars,” author Paris Marx tells Mathias. “It’s sold as this promise of efficiency, but it’s not really that efficient.”
Inflation likely to be worse here than in other countries – forecast
A new economic forecast predicts inflation will be at 6.6% by the end of this year and 3.8% by the end of next year, still well above the Reserve Bank’s target of 1% to 3%. Infometrics’ chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan says that while inflation pressures are reducing internationally, New Zealand is not feeling the benefits. “The problem in New Zealand is that we’re just not getting any of the real good bits [of economic data] through here so our problem still seems to be more acute than what you’ve got overseas,” he tells Stuff, adding that he believes the official cash rate will increase to 5.75% in the next few months. A decrease in interest rates from mid-2024 will likely be slower than the pace of increases had been, he says.
Listen: Three Waters? Never heard of it
As Chris Hipkins rebrands water reforms, making four entities into 10,Gone By Lunchtime asks whether the changes will be enough to mollify the critics. Plus: Jacinda Ardern’s valedictory speech, reviewed; the Covid-19 settings decision, assessed; crybabygate; and the confiscation of lobbyists’ swipe cards.
What we need to do to meet our climate goals
Aotearoa needs to double the size of its electricity industry over the next 30 years to meet our emissions reductions targets. We've done it before in 1945 to 1985 but can we do it again? With a myriad of privately and publicly owned companies waiting for market and regulatory signals, it seems unlikely. In the latest episode of When the Facts Change, Bernard Hickey talks with electricity expert John Hancock about the prospects of doubling our power industry again and explains how we can get it done.
Click and collect
Use the wall socket, not the USB port, next time you’re in a public place and need to charge your phone, a cybersecurity expert warns.
The government has allowed Auckland Council to delay hearings on new housing density rules by a year due to ongoing flood cleanup.
Nearly 2000 probation officers and other Community Corrections staff went on strike yesterday afternoon, and plan to do so again on April 20 and 27.
The Dominion Post is losing “dominion” from its name.
The 21-year-old US armed services member suspected of leaking highly classified defence documents has been arrested by the FBI.
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Claire Mabey traces how crime writer Anne Perry built success from the catastrophe of crime perpetrator Juliet Homes. It's actually really easy to switch to the Māori electoral roll, finds Tommy de Silva. The Moana Pasifika rugby team are about to play their first game in Sāmoa, and for some players it's a family affair, writes Sela Jane Hopgood. And students are frustrated with inconsistent rules for graduating when they have Covid, Stewart Sowman-Lund reports.
Sporting snippets
After an all-male coaching team was announced for the Black Ferns, Alice Soper argues (paywalled) NZ Rugby should set a target for a woman as head coach within 10 years.
Concussions in the NRL are up 60% on the same period last year, despite the introduction of tougher rules that have stood down 16 concussed players since the start of the season.
Test matches may end up being played by as few as five or six nations, acting as a “shop window” for cricket as Twenty20 continues to grow in global popularity, the ICC predicts.
It’s Friday, so…
Still on a high from that remarkable episode of Succession on Monday? I have the perfect chaser: Vanity Fair’s deliciously gossipy account of what’s going on with Rupert Murdoch, aka the real-life Logan Roy, and with Murdoch’s kids Lachlan, James and Elisabeth.
Among the revelations from media reporter Gabriel Sherman: the 92-year-old broke up with wife Jerry Hall by email, and has just abruptly called off his new engagement to a 66-year-old QAnon-supporting radio host. “One source said Rupert got word to James that it would mean a lot if James attended his 90th birthday party, but James didn’t go” (sounds familiar), and “according to another source, Lachlan told Rupert that James was leaking stories to the writers of Succession”. Stranger than fiction, indeed.
