The promise of a hot and dry summer
The promise of a hot and dry summer
Meteorologists suggest we may experience one of the strongest El Niños seen in the past 80 years.
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, September 12, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: National could comfortably form a government with Act according to new poll; Labour pledges free cervical screening; a Prefu preview for you; but first a break in the election campaign for some weather
A break in the weather
Like many people this year, I have frequently blamed my recurrent bad moods and irritation this year on the absent summer of 2022/2023. According to meteorologists, I may soon find out whether it was the wet summer or a more permanent problem with my disposition that’s made this year feel less than sunny at times. As the Herald’s Jamie Morton reported on Sunday, Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll says New Zealand’s climate is about to take a “rapid turn”, giving us a taste of the hotter, drier summer much of the country will experience under El Niño. There’s now also a good chance this El Niño will sit among the strongest El Niños seen in the past 80 years. Officials are already warning of fire danger and a heightened risk of drought.
Risk of drought and threats to global food supply
I freely admit to punching the air when I skimmed the “hot, dry” headline on Sunday but the implications of El Niño, in combination with climate change, relegated that to a fleeting gesture pretty quickly. The El Niño summer of 1997/1998, regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in recorded history, caused severe drought in New Zealand and was later estimated to have caused a loss of $618m to the economy. There are already rising concerns about the impact of El Niño on global food supplies. Across south and south-east Asia, unpredictable weather is threatening supplies of rice, a staple food for more than half the world’s population. The Northern Hemisphere is still emerging from the deadly heat waves and temperatures of its summer, with firefighters in Greece continuing to battle pockets of wildfires. Media in Europe have been exploring what the double whammy of a strong El Nino and rising global heating might mean. As this Guardian explainer outlines, the science around relationships between human-caused climate change and weather patterns like El Niño or La Niña remains unsettled.
Global warming will make the hot and dry years even hotter and drier
In Australia, alarm bells have been ringing early, with memories of the devastating bushfires in 2019 and 2020, still fresh in people’s minds. The ABC has put together this brilliant data visualisation that explains the complexity of the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña and the uncertainty about whether El Niño conditions will lead to bushfires and drought. As the authors write, what is becoming clearer to researchers with every passing year, though, is that global warming will make the hot and dry years even hotter and drier.
Report card on global emissions reduction goals issued
The United Nations issued its first report card for the goals laid out by signatories to the 2015 Paris climate agreement a few days ago. “The Paris Agreement has driven near-universal climate action,” the report notes, but “much more is needed now on all fronts.” As Stuff’s Olivia Wannan reports, globally, emissions must peak by 2025 and then rapidly fall to achieve the Paris climate targets. Massey University’s Ralph Sims said New Zealand’s greenhouse footprint may have peaked already but another couple of non-pandemic years are required to confirm the trend. After peaking, emissions must nearly halve by 2030. Sims says the solutions are largely well understood “but need political will to urgently increase their uptake.” “This involves individuals, families, businesses, local governments et cetera significantly reducing their carbon footprints however they can. This is not yet happening in New Zealand,” he says.
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Labour drops to lowest result since Andrew Little was leader
The National party could comfortably form a government with Act according to last night’s Newshub Reid Research poll. The poll was conducted between 3 - 9 September and takes into account recent policy announcements by the major parties, including National’s tax plan and Labour’s pledge of free dental care for under 30s. National is on 40.9%, up 4.3 points. Labour is down 5.5 points to 26.8%, the lowest it’s been since Andrew Little was leader. The Greens are on 12.3% up 2.7 points, Act is down 2 points to 10.1% and New Zealand First is just outside the 5% percent threshold at 4.6%. Newsroom’s Jo Moir pins the result to a mood for change. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie argues (paywalled) National should’ve been in the 40s months ago and asks what Act’s David Seymour is playing at with his “no coalition” rhetoric, noting he’s now presiding over a slump from support in the mid-teens to 10% or less.
Labour pledges free cervical screening
Labour is promising it will make cervical screening services free to all women and people with a cervix aged 25-69 years if elected. Research done for the National Cervical Screening Programme in 2019 found over 85% of people who develop cervical cancer in New Zealand either have never been screened or have been screened infrequently. Alex Casey did a great job explaining the current situation, in March this year. Unlike breast and bowel cancer screening, which are free for those who are most affected by the diseases, the lack of fully funded cervical screening costs has persisted as an anomaly. “The current screening programme is delivered by primary care and has never been fully funded with most people making a co-payment that can be up to $100,” said Labour’s women’s health spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. Te Whatu Ora is also rolling out the new cervical screening self-test today, called HPV Primary Screening, which has been proven to identify those at a higher risk for human papilloma virus (responsible for 99% of all cervical cancers) much earlier than the current test. Casey has you covered again, with this explainer on how it works.
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Click and Collect
Prefu is out today. One of the more mellifluous fiscal acronyms, the Prefu (pre-election economic and fiscal update) will reveal Treasury's forecasts for inflation, unemployment, government debt and operating balance and economic growth for the next couple of years. Here’s a preview (paywalled)
The number of people able to speak more than a few words and phrases of te reo Māori has increased from 23 to 30% since 2018
Dunedin’s deputy mayor resigns over working relationship with the mayor
Gore District Council looks set to ditch an independent review of its governance
How Elizabeth Bell’s “very unusual childhood” in New Zealand helped hone techniques being used to create predator-free zones on islands from the Caribbean to the United Kingdom
Click and Elect
National reiterates view that the superannuation age should not rise before the year 2044
The Council of Trade Unions says National's tax policy would require much deeper cuts to core services than the party is letting on
Advertising complaint laid against Labour MP over housing claims
Dave Dobbyn’s manager steps in “over use of Loyal’’ in post promoting Liz Gunn’s party
A bit of formality on Sunday as the Governor-General issued the writ to allow the general election to be held, and the Electoral Commission says it’s expecting keen interest in advance voting, which starts on October 2.
Potential and current prime minister eat pies
Maddie Holden reports on a band of wild horses that have descended on the small town of Ahipara in the Far North. Toby Manhire on why Labour is so keen to paint this election as 2005 all over again. Tommy de Silva explains the proposal to have Māori seats on Auckland Council. Kendra Marston asks why it took her eight years, plus a move to Australia, to get a vulvodynia diagnosis. Sam Brooks reviews a ‘revolutionary leap in entertainment’ that shows the possibilities – and limitations – of AI art.
Sporting snippets
Dylan Cleaver has some early thoughts on the Black Caps team for the World Cup, a useful round-up of the weekend in sports and, following Duncan Greive’s investigation on where “Up the Wahs” came from, punts a further theory
Erin Routliffe becomes the first New Zealand woman to win a grand slam tennis title in 44 years
Luis Rubiales, the head of Spain’s football federation who forcibly kissed Jenni Hermoso after the World Cup final, has resigned after previously refusing to step down
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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