The news that will matter in 2022
The final Bulletin of 2021 looks ahead to what we might need to consider next in these interesting times
MÅrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Friday, December 17, by Justin Giovannetti. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
This is the final Bulletin of 2021. The newsletter will return in mid-January.
(Image by Tina Tiller)
For the final Bulletin of the year, weâll once again look ahead to the next one. Weâre ending the year on a cliffhanger, and while that might make for good television, it can fray nerves. Many of the major storylines from the past year are unresolved. However, thereâs a case to be made for optimism in the months ahead. After two years of pandemic, thereâs pent-up demand across the world for action. At both the individual and institutional level, thereâs much that needs doing and people impatient to get on. We first need to deal with the one word that best captures where we stand at the end of 2021: fatigue.
Hereâs some of what will matter to New Zealand and the world next year.
The pandemic enters a third year. Until a few weeks ago, there was a growing expectation that Covid-19 would fade away over the coming year under the weight of new antiviral treatments and better vaccines. The omicron variant has upset plans around the world, bringing back restrictions and fuelling surges in infections that mirror the first days of the pandemic. Thereâs much we donât know about omicron but we know this: we arenât restarting Covid-19. The worldâs governments have an incredible array of tools and medical interventions that werenât available in 2020. There will be dark days with scary projections, but I like our chances in the fight against the virus.
New Zealandâs future without elimination. Itâs unlikely the Labour government will deviate much from its plan to relax border restrictions in the coming months. There may be short delays, but with 90% of the eligible population vaccinated, New Zealanders have massively responded to the governmentâs call. A mass programme of inoculation for children, along with an ongoing booster effort, will keep vaccination clinics busy. New Zealanders are already getting used to the messy world of dealing with Covid-19 through the traffic light system, expect that new reality to continue in the coming year as we live in the wake of the pandemic.
New Zealandâs new politics. New National leader Christopher Luxon has had about as good a first two weeks as could be expected. Two weeks is a very short time from which to draw conclusions on his long-term chances. However, he should be safe. Unlike the short-lived leaderships of his two predecessors, the opposition doesnât have anywhere else obvious to turn. Voters have also responded by boosting Nationalâs poll numbers to within fighting distance of Jacina Ardernâs Labour. The country might finally have the strong official opposition it deserves. Expect the prime minister to respond by shuffling her cabinet in the first few months of the year. Some ministers have underperformed while others are clearly overworked. Ardern's senior staff might also need a refresh as she starts looking ahead to a possible 2023 re-election.
The housing market doesnât care. A year ago, writing a similar look ahead, Alex Braae predicted that the government would introduce measures to bring the housing market back into line. The government dutifully âpulled on the leversâ to make housing purchases more difficult and help first home buyers. In that sense, Braaeâs prediction was spot on. But the housing market seemed to ignore it, soaring by nearly 30%. The levers have now been pulled. The Reserve Bank will keep hiking interest rates, pushing up the cost of mortgages. Predictions for future house prices are somewhere between another year of double digit increases and a slight fall. Iâll be keeping an eye on the rental market, where the Greens are agitating for a rent freeze and the government will need to respond if weekly rents keep increasing rapidly.
The cost-of-living challenge. Inflation is now expected to be at the highest level in a generation for the next year, as snarled supply chains struggle to move goods around the world. Forget what top-line economic figures say, the global economy is being weird. Some sectors are growing like it's 2018, while others are sputtering and misfiring. Lumber prices were soaring months ago, then it was microprocessors and used cars. Expect the disruptions to keep moving around the world. When you see the word inflation in headlines, and youâll see it a lot, think of your cost-of-living. Prices will go up a lot over the next year on many of the products you buy, but you likely wonât get anything close to a wage increase to match. While richer New Zealanders might be able to shrug it off, this will be a real problem for many across the motu.
The year of the climate. The prime minister has promised sheâll be serious about climate change in 2022 â with a renewed programme receiving billions in a climate change budget being tabled in a few months. The Greens want climate change action to be the string that helps deal with many of the countryâs problems. More efficient cars and better insulation can help reduce costs for disadvantaged households, while providing a new focus to improve all of New Zealand. Climate change doesnât cut cleanly across society â some are worried about the climate, but donât want to give up their suburban home with a yard or ride the bus. Handled poorly, the challenge of the next year could divide people. Iâll be upbeat, because thereâs a strong bipartisan consensus in New Zealand to make this work.Â
A reckoning for the social media giants? Facebook, Google and other tech empires are now facing immense pressure across the world to pivot and become forces for good. The time for delay and slow reform is passing quickly. Old arguments about free speech are falling away as governments on the left and right are increasingly convinced that these companies, clustered in a small part of California but with the resources and cash of nation-states, need to be regulated.
Destabilised international relations. Thereâs mounting political unrest around the world. The global slide towards authoritarianism was well underway before Covid-19 was discovered, but the pandemic has made politics more turbulent, even in robust democracies. Then there are relations between states. New Zealandâs defence and intelligence communities are warning that the Pacific is coming under strain from an increasingly assertive China. In Europe, Russian troops are massing on Ukraineâs border. An increasingly unstable world does present a golden age for diplomats ready to convince east and west to work together â perhaps from small countries that are seen as somewhat neutral. Isolated island nations. Often left off maps. Know anyone who might be up for the job?
2021 will be remembered for the spread of delta, creating one of the most challenging storiesâand commercial environmentsâin recent memory. It made us rely even more heavily on the support of our members. If you love what we do, please consider donating today. Want another way to support us? Invite your friends and whÄnau to subscribe to The Bulletin and keep them across Aotearoaâs biggest stories.
Right now on The Spinoff: Catherine Woulfe makes good on a reckless vow by ranking every cold dessert in the Edmonds book. Tara Ward ranks all the celebrity cake portraits from the Kiwi Bake Off Christmas Special. Toby Manhire looks for clues in all the unexpected appearances by childrenâs books in Succession. Naomii Seah dives into the new world of restaurant booking fees. Shaneel Lal explains why New Zealand wonât ban conversion therapy in 2021. Finally, Madeleine Chapman writes that Stuart Nash was right when he bet 90% of eligible New Zealanders would be fully vaccinated before Christmas. That goal was met this week. Nash is now owed 24 bottles of wine, half by Nationalâs Mark Mitchell and half by Mike Hosking.
A final note. Iâm comforted on a daily basis by the thought that weâre all in this together. This country might be divided in a thousand ways, both big and small, but it comes together every day. One of the joys of being at parliament is the stuff the public doesnât see â the many ways politicians who argue in question time then work together for a better New Zealand. They are united in wanting to improve this country and leave it a better place for the next generation.
Iâd like to thank my colleagues at The Spinoff for their support over the past year. Z Energy for making The Bulletin possible. The talented journalists of New Zealand whose work I read daily to form these newsletters. And you, the readers of The Spinoff and The Bulletin. You were warm and accepting when I took up this post and I thank you for the support youâve shown.
Finally, a deep thanks to my partner and our dog Tupper. Youâve both sacrificed a lot for The Bulletin, especially Tupper, who is still confused when I wake up before him to type every morning. Weâre going on a long holiday to see more of this country. I hope you have a good summer and a merry Christmas.
MÄ te wÄ,
Justin
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