The key shifts four months out from election

From a landslide majority in 2020 to a landscape of bottom lines and cross-benches, the major to minor party shift looks set to define this year's election

In today’s edition: government faces dilemma and court battle over ocean sanctuary; migration levels return to near pre-pandemic levels; which main party leader is the most chipper of them all?; but first, with four months to go until the election, get ready to add cross-benches and bottom lines to your bingo card as the minor parties carve out their territory

The party leaders, major and minor (Photos: Getty, Compilation: Anna Rawhiti-Connell)

The indefatigable Winston Peters 

Today marks four months to go until election day. This week in ancient history (four months out from the 2020 election) we were primarily concerned with whether two women, who got lost on an Auckland motorway, had hugged or kissed other people on their travels. New Zealand First were in government, applying a handbrake to gun reform measures. Since failing to get back into parliament after Labour’s big win in 2020, many pundits have looked in the mirror and wondered if this is the year they can confidently rule out NZ First leader Winston Peters. Not according to Peters based on a recent Grey Power meeting attended by Duncan Greive. This is, Peters said “the most critical election that any of us have ever faced.” In a very colourful write on The Spinoff this morning, Greive catalogues the furious concerns of attendees and notes that for Peters to get back to parliament, he will “need to find a way to turn their fury into his votes.”

National’s latest moves a bid to stem tide and sell something ‘less politically scary’

As Stuff’s Andrea Vance outlined in her Sunday column, this year is the year of the minor parties. “Minor” might now underplay the role they may play in the upcoming election and subsequent formation of government. Vance writes that “the political establishment that has rotated power for decades has finally run out of ideas to make things better” and so we turn to Act, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and possibly the Opportunities Party. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie casts his eye over National’s recent abandonment of bipartisanship (paywalled) on housing density and agricultural emissions and judges it as both politically cynical and pragmatic. He writes that “National’s hope is that it will translate not only into a slide back from Act to National, but a slide from the undecided centre towards National on the grounds that a centre-right government less dominated by Act is less politically scary.”

Cross-benches and bottom lines 

In the most recent polling snapshot catalogued by Toby Manhire, the average across the latest polls would create what looks like a dead heat with both National and Labour reliant on support from. As Vance wrote, cross-benches is this year’s buzzword. Act has already said that if it doesn’t get what it wants from National in coalition negotiations, the party is prepared to sit on the cross-benches and negotiate everything, vote by vote. Stewart Sowman-Lund notes that “bottom lines” is also something to add to your election year bingo card. Prime minister Chris Hipkins used it yesterday morning when asked about the Green party’s tax policy and whether he’d be prepared to lead a minority government, should the Greens choose to sit on the cross bench. 

What do voters actually care about?

All of these machinations and calculations aside, Toby Manhire writes that the latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor gives us a sense of the “crunchy” terrain ahead for the election. Topping the list of things we deem most important is the cost of living. Whether or not we’ll feel better or worse about things after GDP numbers are released on Thursday remains to be seen. As Liam Dann notes (paywalled), the figures are retrospective so if we have been in a recession, the correct question to ask is “How was it for you?” The latest retail card spending data from Stats NZ suggests that recession or not, the economy is in a bit of a slump. Second on the list was law and order. In July 2020, it was seventh. I have mentioned this before but tough on crime/soft on crime rhetoric is very typical pre-election territory and crime data, as demonstrated in this excellent work from the Herald’s Michael Neilson and Chris Knox (paywalled), is a tricky thing but it’s clear people are deeply worried about what they’re observing and experiencing. Third was perennial fav, housing. Have a read of Greive’s piece this morning to gauge how these concerns stack up against the concerns of last week’s Grey Power meeting attendees.

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Government faces dilemma  and court battle over ocean sanctuary

As Stuff’s Andrea Vance reports, the dream of the one of the largest ocean sanctuaries in the world could be dead. In 2015, then prime minister John Key made an announcement at the United Nations General Assembly that proposed turning 620,000 km2 in the seas north-east of New Zealand in the Kermadec region into an ocean santuary. It’s been controversial since the get-go, with the Māori Party threatening to walk away from its support deal with National over it in 2016. Stuff understands the government was planning to green-light the sanctuary if it secured an agreement from Te Ohu Kaimoana, the organisation representing iwi fishing interests, and mana whenua Ngāti Kuri, and has been blind-sided by a vote rejecting the latest proposal by Te Ohu Kaimoana. A proposal paper from the group says the organisation will consider pursuing court action if the government moves to establish the sanctuary.

Migration surge was likely due to pent-up demand

Stats NZ released the latest net migration figures yesterday and they’re nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. In the year ending in April, net migration climbed to 72,300 with a net gain of 98,400 non-New Zealand citizens. Monthly net migration gain fell to 5,800, less than half of the gains seen in February and March. You’ll recall there was a fair bit of talk just before the last OCR announcement about the impact of net migration on inflation, with predictions running both ways — we could be seeing a big sustained spike or we could be seeing pent-up demand that would even out. Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara says the surge over the past few months was likely due to pent-up demand, and she expected flows would ease over the coming year. For those us using the departure gates with the intention of returning, we’re taking fewer holidays but they’re longer. New Zealand travellers spent an average of 24 days abroad in the April 2023 year compared with an average of 19 days in the April 2019 year.

Sam Conniff's journey to embracing uncertainty

Here for the Spark Lab Festival of the Future, Sam Conniff is a British expert in uncertainty and author of the 2018 book 'Be More Pirate'. His new creation is the world’s first interactive documentary that up-skills people in dealing with uncertainty and making it their advantage. He joins Simon Pound in the latest episode of Business is Boring to talk how uncertainty became his greatest power, and gives his tips on how to harness it.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the most chipper of them all?

Despite this week’s “wet, whiny and negative” comments from National leader Christopher Luxon, which he now says were about the government and not the country, analysis from RNZ’s Guyon Espiner and Farah Hancock suggests Luxon is more chipper than prime minister Chris “Chippy” Hipkins. Luxon used a greater percentage of positive words in his media interviews between July 2022 and May 2023 than either Hipkins or his predecessor Jacinda Ardern. Positive vibes or not, Stuff’s Luke Malpass writes that Luxon, a now self-described “big patriotic Kiwi”, may well ride the wave of people who whinge about the whinging to office on October 14. He will not be travelling there in a state-owned Tesla however, after ordering, then cancelling one, while criticising Tesla subsidies.

Click and collect

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• What will happen to fuel prices when the 25 cents-a-litre tax cut ends at the end of the month?

• The promise of cheap public transport from July 1 for five to 24-year-olds has hit a major snag with some of the biggest councils still figuring out a system for checking a passenger's age

• Kim Dotcom-founded crypto business faces liquidation

• Former US President Donald Trump pleads not guilty in Miami court to charges of hoarding secret documents

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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