The era of AI political campaigning is here

It arrives not with a robotic roar, but with the leader of the National party being unsure whether his party is using AI while a spokesperson confirms they are

Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, May 24 by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: today’s OCR announcement; Hipkins talks tax bracket change; just how miserable are we?; but first, National party using artificial intelligence in attack ads

Image created using Bing Image Creator - a clearly fake, if not a beautiful imagined future

National using artificial intelligence to create attack ads 

As Stuff’s Andrea Vance writes, “It’s the wonky eyeball that gives it away. In the Instagram photograph, a woman stares out the window into a dark street.” Vance is referring to an image posted on the National party’s Instagram account attacking Labour’s “soft on crime” approach and it’s been generated using artificial intelligence (AI). Vance reports that in the last month, National has published at least four images generated by AI to its social media accounts with a spokesperson confirming they were using it as “an innovative way to drive our social media”. Yesterday, party leader Christopher Luxon was unclear about National’s use of AI in its attack ads saying, “No, not that I’m aware of,” when asked if the party was using it.

AI image and text generation now in the hands of everyone

On Monday, a fake image which CNN describes as bearing “all the hallmarks of being generated by artificial intelligence” purported to show an explosion near the Pentagon. It was shared by multiple “verified” Twitter accounts on Monday, leading to a brief dip in the stock market. It was fake. This is a confluence of problems. “Verified” on Twitter now means nothing more than someone paying for a “verified” account — it is no badge of authenticity. The capacity to create these kinds of images now lies in the hands of everyone. I used Bing Image Creator to create today’s feature image. It took me five seconds using the prompt: “a happy dog being prime minister of New Zealand in front of the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand holding a New Zealand flag”. As you can see, it’s not the Beehive, nor the New Zealand flag and that suit fit is a travesty. I chose not to enter prompts that might bear a resemblance to reality for the sake of trust and truth. It’s just me imagining a beautiful future.

AI being explored by Electoral Review panel here

As this AP news piece highlights, AI experts can very quickly name a number of scenarios in which AI is used for the purposes of confusing voters, slandering a candidate or even inciting violence. The news cycle is awash with these stories and warnings. Two months ago, psychologist and AI commentator Paul Duignan said there was every reason to think AI would be used in the New Zealand election and so it has come to pass. It’s a topic being explored by the Government's Independent Electoral Review panel. The first report from that review is not due until June. Far be it from me to suggest that once-in-a-generation review of electoral law be rushed, but to quote the Gershwins, some might suggest it’s time for them to “put on some speed”. 

Should we be asking for disclosure from our political parties?

In the US, a bill was introduced at the beginning of the month that would require political groups or campaigns to disclose the use of content created by AI in political ads. Here, our educators and education officials are being proactive about developing guidelines and policies for how generative AI is being used in the education system. The Ministry of Education just published a set of guidelines. In the absence of any formal regulation of the use of AI in political campaigns, a set of cross-party guidelines or an agreement about disclosure might be a decent stop gap with the election only five months away. Discussing it in the context of US law and the 2024 US election,Matthew Ferraro, a cybersecurity lawyer suggested it was a good way to go.

A message from Jane Yee, head of podcasts at The Spinoff

All the work we do here at The Spinoff, including our audio content and newsletters, is only possible thanks to the support of our members. We’d love you to help us keep delivering independent media that’s free for everyone. If you value what we do and have the means to do so, please make a donation today.

Most “politically consequential rates decision of Adrian Orr's tenure”?

Stuff’s Luke Malpass describes today’s offical cash rate announcement as the “most politically consequential rates decision of Adrian Orr's tenure”. One of the key questions being asked is whether last week’s budget and the government’s fiscal track make it more difficult for the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) to do its job in getting inflation down? Malpass writes that it is precisely the situation where the independence of the RBNZ is at its most important. “It’s Adrian Orr’s job to stand askance the political process, and where appropriate say ‘please stop’”, he writes. Most economists are picking a hike today with the budget and, as covered yesterday, migration figures making things more challenging than previously predicted for the RBNZ.

Not now but in the future

As Stuff’s Glenn McConnell reports, prime minister Chris Hipkins said yesterday that sometime in the future, the government will look to “reset” income tax brackets, adding that any tax cuts would need to wait until inflation cools. The National party has been calling for the income tax brackets to be indexed to inflation. This morning, the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reports on calls for National to front up with costings for its proposed tax cuts. Council of Trade Unions’ economist Craig Renney has run some numbers. According to Renney, when Treasury’s most recent forecasts are factored in, the cost of the main policy in National’s tax plan will be $8.2b over a four-year period.

Where we sit on the misery index

Sorry, a lot of political economy news today but this year’s misery index has been released and suffice to say we’re more miserable than we were two years ago. Despite it sounding like a measure of our general disposition as a nation and a good excuse to spin up lists of things that might make us “happier”, the misery index is actually an equation that involves economic measures. It is the sum of unemployment (multiplied by two), inflation, and bank-lending rates, minus the annual percentage change in real GDP per capita. New Zealand came in at 104th. In 2021 we were ranked 151st out of 156 nations. At number one, or the most miserable, is Zimbabwe due to endemic inflation. Our lending rate was highlighted as the major factor influencing our ranking. Guess we’ll all just have to wait to see how much more miserable we might get this afternoon.

Click and Collect

• Assaults on police nearly double, averaging three a day

• Employment Court throws out bid by Te Whatu Ora to stop a one hour strike at Gisborne Hospital on Wednesday

• More job losses announced at Auckland council

• Miami zoo to stop mistreatment of kiwi after concerns raised over welfare

• Good sorts alert - coffee shop owners gave away hundreds of coffees after Eftpos machine broke, they’re hopeful they’ll get paid by loyal customers, seemingly ok if they just ended up giving coffee away

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

If you liked what you read today, share The Bulletin with friends, family and colleagues.

Right now on The Spinoff

Shanti Mathias asks whether e-scooters are a transport saviour or ‘death machine’. Toby Manhire finds out whether anyone has been prosecuted under the law banning conversion therapy. For the cost of being, a blind job seeker wonders if their situation will change without reforms to the benefit system. Māori medical student Chloe Fergusson-Tibble reviews the new book, There's a Cure for This. Venetia Sherson asks what aging means in a society where you could simply opt out.

Sporting snippets

• Major partnership between TAB NZ and a British betting company approved, government considering prohibiting online betting outside of TAB

• High performance sports in New Zealand will need to seek corporate sponsorship if they want to maintain their current level of competition

• “Knee-length knickers and tasselled caps” — Tony Smith looks into the history of women’s football in New Zealand just under two months out from the Fifa World Cup starting

• Two high-profile stalwarts of Team New Zealand speak out against a decision to host a preliminary America’s Cup regatta in Saudi Arabia

Where have all the celebrities gone?

Absolutely loved this read from Metro editor Henry Oliver. It’s proof a theory you’ve been musing on for a while is sometimes worth pursuing. Oliver asks where all the celebrities have gone. Fifteen years ago someone who’d been on Shortland St for six months would be a magazine cover star and star power could be built via monocultural media landscape. Now, with media habits so fragmented, the very idea of celebrity is diluted. Oliver also spoke to The Spinoff’s Alex Casey about the impact of never-ending cycles of local reality TV casting which creates a quantity problem — the more there are, the less anyone seems to be able to keep up with, or even care, who they are.