The edge of a knife, six months to voting day
Hipkins announces a hold on Covid changes and the last big reprioritisation as an election heaves into view
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, April 12, by Toby Manhire, tagging in for Anna who is crook but getting better. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: a 50/50 split in cabinet; Google pulls McCullum betting ads; the hour of television everyone is talking about; but first, the rebranding of the waters, a review of Covid rules and the state of play and polls with half a year to the election
The end of a long weekend
There was a post-long-weekend mood in the room at the prime minister’s weekly press conference yesterday. So relaxed was Chris Hipkins that he forgot even to mention in his opening remarks the cabinet decision we were most anxious to hear: whether or not the rules on Covid isolation are changing. (They’re not, for now. More on that later.)
The languor won’t last long. Parliament has just begun its chunkiest recess, all of three weeks, before the house rises for the election at the end of August. This Friday marks six months until election day. “An event in October that I have an interest in,” was what Hipkins called it yesterday in response to a question from Thomas Manch about whether he would attend a Nato summit in July. (The PM confirmed he had been invited; more on that from Thomas for Stuff here.)
Hipkins wants to make water boring again
The next “reprioritisation” exercise is due any day, with parts of the Three Waters reforms on the block. Pattrick Smellie (BusinessDesk, paywalled) says it will centre on binning the four-entity plan in favour of 10 groupings. Co-governance, Smellie suggests, will remain, though the term will be Twinked out. In fact, “Three Waters” is up for a find/replace, too, with the reform as a whole rebranded to – stay with me here – “Affordable Water Infrastructure Improvements”, as Hipkins put it today. Why the change, given the reams of material out there under the “three waters” heading? “I think it’s a term that has become somewhat confused,” he said, with a smidge of a grin, as eyelids grew heavy.
Whatever you call it, there will be “significant changes” to the water reforms, said Hipkins. Is that it for the great reprioritisation, I asked. “The next big reprioritisation process is during the budget.” Would that see more of the existing work programme incinerated? “It will be more of a business as usual approach.”
The knife-edge
A couple of new polls popped up in recent days, from Roy Morgan and Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union. Both tend to suggest the next six months will proceed on knife edge. To get a sense of just how close it looks, below are the latest numbers from each of the published polls.
Plenty of water – three to begin with – to go under the bridge yet, but eesh, how close is that? Averaged across the five polls, the presumptive blocs stand at National-Act on 45.8% versus Labour-Green on 45.1%. Translated into seats (and assuming Te Pāti Māori wins at least one electorate), such numbers would give the right 59 seats and the left 58, with TPM holding the balance of power: three.
Last night Hipkins confirmed he’d talked recently with the Māori Party co-leaders. “It was largely a meet-and-greet, and acknowledgment that we can work together,” he said, swiftly adding, “in this term of parliament.” Discussions hadn’t gone further than that, and there’d been no chat on anything like electorate deals. But it does suggest a warming of relations with the potential Chris-maker.
Mandatory isolation for Covid continues
“Pleasantly surprised,” said Dion O’Neale when I called to get his response on the decision to keep in place Covid rules requiring seven days isolation for those who test Covid-positive. Work by O’Neale and colleagues at Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa had suggested that dumping mandatory isolation could bring bring an increase in hospital admissions and deaths of around 13%-25% across six months.
Hipkins said the government would look at how the “test to release” approach was working around the world over the next couple of months and review the decision. O’Neale thought such a scheme could work if properly implemented. “Rapid antigen tests are pretty darned good at measuring whether you’re infectious or not,” he said. Research suggested people around 85% of people spent some time in “excess isolation”, while around 9% exited isolation after the seven-day period while still being infectious. A rigorous approach that saw people leave isolation on a negative test at any point between five and 10 days after infection would overall be better, too, for employers facing shortages, he said.
The decision also meant “we get to see in two months’ time whether we’re in another terrible wave of infections and hospital admissions”, said O’Neale.
Kirk Hope of BusinessNZ told Newstalk ZB he was keen on a test to release scheme and disappointed that the government hadn’t yet studied the way it works overseas. The cabinet decision was criticised by the opposition, as Newshub reports. Mildly by the National Party and vehemently by Act.
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A 50/50 split in cabinet
The other newslines from the post-cabinet press conference were a list of more than 40 health roles to be added to the direct-to-residency pathway for immigration and the promotion of Willow-Jean Prime to cabinet, filling the vacancy created by Stuart Nash’s sacking, a change which creates a 50-50 gender split around the top table. Prime keeps the same portfolios (conservation and youth) with Nash’s other jobs going to Barbara Edmonds (economic development) and Peeni Henare (forestry). Rachel Brooking becomes a minister outside cabinet, taking the oceans and fisheries portfolio.
As for Nash, in an interview with Hawke’s Bay Today, the now former minister suggested that his downfall was a result of “gotcha politics”, which is a curious way to describe repeated breaches of the Cabinet Manual.
McCullum betting ads pulled by Google
Advertisements for a Cyprus-based betting company starring Brendon McCullum, which were in high-rotate on YouTube, have been pulled by the platform’s parent company Google. The former New Zealand cricket captain, now coach of the English Test side, was the centrepiece of 22Bet ads which prompted complaints from the NZ Problem Gambling Foundation. A spokesperson told 1News, they were "the most aggressive marketing I've ever seen".
Overseas gambling operations circumvent a ban on marketing in New Zealand by placing ads on offshore digital platforms. Google told 1News it had removed the advertising, however, because it violated policies which include being licensed to operate in the place of viewership.
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Everyone’s talking about Succession
The third episode of the final series of Jesse Armstrong’s acclaimed TV monster Succession aired at the start of the week to slack jaws around the world – and if you’re in the tiny group of people who watch the show and haven’t seen this episode yet, spoilers follow; close this email or throw your device into the ocean.
While most of us were expecting an episode centred on a toe-curling wedding, we got a big old death. Among the best reads are thoughtful appreciations of the character (RIP) and series so far (soon to be RIP) in the Hollywood Reporter and the Ringer. The Los Angeles Times ran a deadpan obituary for “one of the most ruthless and polarising media barons of his generation”, though pissed off plenty of people for posting it not long after the episode first aired.
The HBO podcast was a cracker, with Kara Swisher talking to Armstrong and director Mark Mylod, followed by a chat with Brian Cox, who is in top, sweary form on subjects ranging from how he found out he was being killed off (he was “fine about it”, after being assured he’d still get paid) to the pirate Captain Kidd’s Dundee roots. He also attempted to seed a conspiracy theory that Logan faked his own death to test his kids, and is currently kicking back in the north of Scotland.
Click and collect
Given six to eight weeks to live, told it would be a 12-week wait to see oncologist — investigation highly critical of wait times to see cancer specialists
The Kaitaki gearbox is repaired, meaning the Interislander ferry will return to full service today
Record high sea temperatures are partly to blame for a spate of tornadoes
The mayor of Auckland, Wayne Brown, is threatening to “go feral” if the major parties don’t play ball
The mysterious journey through the online undergrowth of leaked classified Pentagon documents
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with Anna at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
Why not share The Bulletin with friends, family and colleagues? They might even like it and give you a biscuit.
Do New Zealanders really pay more than Australians for groceries? Emma Vitz crunches the numbers. In other painful but necessary reading, Chris Schulz relates his own experience in the Auckland housing market. The Platform reported yesterday that Jacinda Ardern had secretly embarked on a lucrative new career. But really? No, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund. And Charlotte Muru-Lanning on bread, bugs and an intriguing new theatre show.
Sporting snippets
The Silver Ferns will play Australia in four Constellation Cup netball tests in October
The Football Ferns winless streak continues after they were beaten by Nigeria in a friendly in Turkey this morning
Following a record number of sackings of managers from the English Premier League, we are now in the age of the owner, chairman, state, oligarch, and investment fund executive, writes The Guardian’s Jonathan Wilson
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LEAO is a musical project grounded in fa'a Sāmoa – through language, spirit and tonalities – but flanked by the alternative sounds of indie-pop. It takes inspiration from various branches of the whakapapa tree of moana music, primarily Sāmoan pop and Hawai'ian, Sāmoan and Tongan string music. The talent behind LEAO is Sāmoan indie artist David Feauai-Afaese. He doesn't fit neatly into the traditional Sāmoan box, though, describing himself as a weird Sāmoan who embraces unconventional ways. As such, LEAO is Feauai-Afaese's attempt to rebel against rigid cultural norms through joyous expression. See Feauai-Afaese's musical nexus in the latest episode of Amplified, out now.
