The coalition's priorities, and the challenges it faces, in year two
Reflections and predictions for the sixth National government.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, November 26.
In today’s edition: More cuts hit the local media scene, plans to investigate extending our parliamentary term to four years will soon be made public, and is the government playing “fast and loose” with gang numbers? But first, the coalition celebrates its first year in power – and looks to the future.
Happy birthday to the sixth National government
This week marks one year of the National-led coalition government. In a series of interviews marked to commemorate the milestone, prime minister Christopher Luxon made clear he has no regrets and believes the government has made significant achievements. In an interview with RNZ’s Craig McCulloch, the prime minister offered up only short responses when asked for reflections on the first 12 months of his tenure, and had little to say when pushed on contentious issues. "I don't think there's any value in that sort of exercise,” he said, when asked whether he would renegotiate any parts of the coalition arrangement. On the Treaty Principles Bill, which has become a consistent thorn in the prime minister’s side, Luxon stands by it being worth compromising to form a government. "You have to do deals, you have to do compromises, you have to do trade-offs. It's naive, I think, to think otherwise."
PM won’t wade into haka debate
Luxon may not be keen to talk about it, but his coalition partners clearly are. In a media statement yesterday, Act leader David Seymour listed the opportunity for New Zealanders to have an “overdue debate” over Treaty of Waitangi as one of his party’s achievements from the first year in office. And the Act leader was also willing to respond to a “controversial” All Blacks haka led by outgoing player TJ Perenara, who used the opportunity to call for support of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. "Because someone is very good at rugby, for example, doesn't mean that they have any extra expertise,” said Seymour, while Luxon refused to be drawn on the matter. The Spinoff’s Liam Rātana has written on the issue this morning, noting that haka has long been used as a vehicle of political protest.
As I wrote last week, the prime minister won’t be able to shy away from the debate forever. And in an opinion piece for the Herald (paywalled), Thomas Coughlan noted that the influence of last week’s hīkoi will be felt for years, though to measure that by “success in parliament and at the ballot box would be to miss the point”. He added: “Forty-two thousand people don’t march through the streets of Wellington simply to call for a quicker pathway to a second reading”. At the very least, the government (and subsequent governments) will have to contend with the after effects of the protest well beyond the death of the Treaty Principles Bill early next year.
Seymour, speaking to RNZ’s Anneke Smith, believed his party had wielded a disproportionate amount of influence over the first year in office. "If you look at these quarterly plans, often half the ideas come from the party that has only one sixth of the MPs in the government,” he said.
‘Consciously worried’
It’s clear that the prime minister is most acutely focused on the state of the economy. That’s an area he is happy to engage in some debate. In that same RNZ interview with Craig McCulloch, he took credit for inflation dropping back to 2.2% from a high of 5.6% (though would not take credit for the rise in unemployment over the same period). Speaking to The Post’s Luke Malpass, the prime minister said his focus was now shifting from controlling inflation to economic growth. “I'm consciously worried about the state of the economy and the decisions that we can take as a government to get growth in jobs. That's going to be my big focus as I go through the next 12 months,” he says.
This Thursday will mark another key milestone in the country’s post-Covid economic journey as the Reserve Bank makes its final Official Cash Rate decision for 2024. Interest’s David Hargreaves noted that most economists were picking the central bank would make another hefty 50 basis point cut this week, though some reckon a 25 point cut is also possible. In good news for the government (and mortgage holders), the chances of it being left as is are virtually nil. But the year ahead isn’t without potholes, with Hargreaves writing that the global economic outlook for 2025 has become murkier, raising the possibility that the Reserve Bank will opt for a more measured approach to keeping inflation in check.
Crime still high on the agenda
Meanwhile, crime remains a core focus for the government going into its second year. Hot off the heels of implementing its anti-gang legislation last week, the prime minister was on hand yesterday to announce a new police counter in central Auckland. Flanked by the police minister Mark Mitchell and fresh police commissioner Richard Chambers, Luxon said the new base would be ready by the middle of next year, allowing the public 24/7 access to police, reported 1News. While the government has previously celebrated a drop in serious assaults in the Auckland CBD, Labour has questioned whether the coalition’s focus on the city centre could see crime rise in the suburbs. Auckland mayor Wayne Brown told the press conference yesterday that the city stretched far beyond just the CBD and he would continue to remind the government of that.
Towards the end of his press conference yesterday afternoon, the prime minister was asked to comment on a Spinoff Cover Story we published yesterday morning about severe stalking. "How is this happening and have you requested an explanation from police over it?" a reporter asked the PM. “These are harrowing stories,” said Luxon. “That is exactly why we wanted to pass stalker legislation." Luxon did not say whether or not he had spoken to police about the story.
If you missed the report, I highly suggest you set some time aside to read it – though I must caution that it covers, in significant depth, some truly horrific details.
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What could change with a four-year parliamentary term?
Plans to investigate extending our parliamentary term to four years will soon be made public, reports the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan (paywalled). As part of the coalition deal between National and Act, the government has agreed to pass Act’s Constitution (Enabling a 4-Year Term) Amendment Bill through first reading in the first 15 months of the term. The agreement between National and New Zealand First agreed to support legislation to a select committee enacting a binding referendum on a four-year term. It’s possible a referendum on the issue could be held alongside the next election.
Interestingly, however, the proposal may not just be to simply give the government a longer runway in office. As Coughlan reports, the government’s bill is likely to be similar to a previous Act Party proposal that would also see greater select committee control from opposition parties, allowing for more scrutiny.
Opposition MPs would have to choose between making life difficult for the government or working cooperatively. That might sound unlikely — politicians, after all, are not known for working cooperatively. However, cooperation is not unknown, even in the most fractious political systems.
The government has already made moves to increase the perception that it’s legislative agenda is being fairly looked at by opposition MPs – next week will mark the second “scrutiny week” of this year.
A new, quieter wave of media cuts
Everyone knows it’s a tough time to be in the media, or a consumer of traditional media. In the last few weeks, there has been another wave of cuts. As noted by Alexia Russell for the Detail podcast, while many of the headlines have focused on high profile TV stars and reporters losing their jobs, there is more beneath the surface. NZME has announced 14 of its community news titles will go by Christmas, following in the footsteps of Stuff that has made similar moves over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, lifestyle brand Ensemble will return to independent ownership after Stuff chose to end the partnership. Founders Rebecca Wadey and Zoe Walker Ahwa told Newsroom they remained as committed to the brand as ever. “We know times are really hard out there, but that’s why we think it’s more important than ever for people to have media outlets which can be both agitative and escapist.”
The Spinoff isn’t immune to these tough times either. The Herald’s Media Insider Shayne Currie broke the news yesterday morning, accurately reporting that three roles have been disestablished while a fourth has been halved. Currie put the news in the context of other, smaller publishers facing troubled times: NZ Geographic editor James Frankham, for example, recently appealed to readers for support
In a gloomy monopod for The Fold this morning, Spinoff founder Duncan Greive reflects on the news and provides some important background details.
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Click and Collect
Further job cuts are looming at Te Whatu Ora, with staff working in its IT department receiving news on Monday their jobs could soon be gone.
Is the government playing “fast and loose” with gang numbers?
Foreign minister Winston Peters will travel to Paris to deliver a speech making a case for ongoing engagement with the Indo-Pacific Region.
Three plans vs a looming deadline on Wellington City Council crunch day.
For Herald Premium subscribers: Do Māori have rights other New Zealanders don’t have? Legal experts weigh in. (paywalled)
The Wellington City Council’s “highest-ever” investment in water infrastructure will see less than 1km of pipes replaced this year.
I love reading about when food products can be called certain things (I wrote a bit about in regards to Halloumi for The Spinoff last year). BusinessDesk’s Riley Kennedy writes about a legal battle involving Fonterra and whether Parmesan cheese really translates to Parmigiano Reggiano. (paywalled)
Boiler Room’s Chris Schulz looks at the grim state of music journalism in Aotearoa one year after a report that put the spotlight on our lack of cultural reporting.
Alex Casey reviews a cosy British biopic celebrating a groundbreaking moment in scientific history that many tried to erase. We round up everything coming to streaming services this week. Jacqueline Peel recaps what was – and wasn’t – achieved at the Cop29 climate talks.
That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and see you back here tomorrow morning.
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