The Budget 2024 preview edition

The Bulletin speaks to Nicola Willis and Barbara Edmonds as we count down the final hours until the budget.

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, May 30 produced in partnership with Blind Low Vision NZ.

In today’s edition: Budget, budget, budget: it’s the most important day of the political year, but it comes against the backdrop of protest. Everything you need to know ahead of 2pm, including interviews with Nicola Willis and Barbara Edmonds. Plus: what we learnt from the census, and what’s going on with the news bargaining bill?

What you need to know

It’s budget day, the chance for the government to outline its spending commitments for the next four years. For finance minister Nicola Willis, this is her first major challenge since taking office. It’s also Barbara Edmonds’ first budget as Labour’s finance spokesperson, and how the opposition responds to the budget is critical. The budget will come out at 2pm after a lockup at parliament where political journalists, including our own Joel MacManus, will have just a few hours to digest all the key details. Then, the budget will be debated in parliament. We’ve talked a bit in previous Bulletins about all the pre-budget announcements – 1News has a handy wrap of those here. But today is all about what we don’t know yet. Ahead of the budget documents being opened, The Bulletin spoke with Nicola Willis and her Labour Party counterpart Barbara Edmonds.

How the government’s framing the budget

The government’s foregoing a formal “name” for today’s budget, so The Bulletin asked Nicola Willis for three words to describe it instead. “Delivery, responsibility and relief,” she said. “It’s a budget to set the foundation for growth, it’s a budget that will deliver for working New Zealand, it’s a budget that’s responsible and a budget for the frontline.” In a pre-budget speech a fortnight ago, prime minister Christopher Luxon said it would have “no bells [and] no whistles”. While it may seem the government’s playing down expectations, Willis insisted it would be a budget for all New Zealanders – even those who did not support the coalition government. “Everyone has a stake in a well-managed economy,” she said.

On the question of tax cuts, Willis maintained they were “demonstrably” necessary after 14 years without a shift in the tax thresholds. The recent decision to scrap first home grants, despite it never being campaigned on, was a surprise to many aspiring homebuyers. Willis wouldn’t rule out further surprises, but said “we have worked to be consistent with the things we campaigned on”. Politik’s Richard Harman (paywalled) has written this morning about the political challenge Willis faces with her plan to help the so-called “squeezed middle”, namely whether today’s budget will see the Reserve Bank drop interest rates faster than anticipated. The Spinoff’s Liam Rātana has also considered whether the promised tax cuts could boost inflation. 

What the opposition says

Asked for three words to describe the government’s budget priorities, Labour’s Barbara Edmonds told The Bulletin: “Irresponsible [and] broken promises”. In recent weeks, the opposition has taken to pressing the government not over whether tax cuts are necessary, but whether what’s announced today will match the promises made on the campaign. In a recent speech, Edmonds laid out four tests by the late Michael Cullen for when tax cuts were appropriate, noting they shouldn’t add to public debt, service cuts, inflation pressure, or inequality. In the house yesterday, Willis gave a succinct “yes” when asked if she was confident the budget wouldn’t exacerbate inflation or unemployment. “The devil will be in the detail,” Edmonds told The Bulletin, noting that a tax cut may do little for a family if it faces higher costs for things like prescriptions or public transport. While opponents on the political playing fields, this is both Willis’s first budget as a minister and Edmonds’ first as finance spokesperson. The Herald’s Fran O’Sullivan had an interesting interview with Edmonds last week about how she’s feeling going into budget day. You can also find an extended wrap of my chat with Willis and Edmonds on The Spinoff this morning.

The unanswered questions – and why they’re mainly about tax

Arguably the most exciting bit of finally reading the budget is getting answers to a whole string of unanswered questions. At the moment, it feels a bit like having watched part one of your favourite show but waiting for the cliffhangers to be resolved. Stuff’s Glenn McConnell has a helpful list of budget questions that still need answers, the most pressing of which is around the long-promised tax relief plan. On Newsroom, Laura Walters has six key questions for the budget, of which the most pressing is, again, about tax. Luke Malpass at The Post has zoned in comprehensively on this issue today. More broadly, this piece from The Conversation explains the significance of budget day from a political perspective, and why the wider narrative matters. “This year it matters more than usual – especially for a National Party still struggling to assert its seniority in the coalition.” It will be interesting to see which coalition party has scored the most significant budget wins. Stuff’s Tova O’Brien has some tidbits here, reporting that NZ First has successfully won the battle over the proposed foreign buyer tax. Once everything has wrapped up this afternoon, the question will turn to optics. The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan noted that given the amount of pre-publicity for this budget, and for tax cuts, the focus today may be drawn from what’s been announced to how it differs from what was promised.

We’ll find out soon enough. For up to date coverage of Budget 2024, visit thespinoff.co.nz at 2pm. And tomorrow morning, join me for a recap of what happened and a comprehensive list of the best budget reads from across the media. Happy budget day one and all.

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Last August, The Spinoff hired Joel MacManus as its first-ever Wellington editor. Wellingtonians have always supported us, and Joel coming on board has meant we’ve been able to start returning the favour with a dedicated focus.

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A turning point for Māori activism

The budget is taking place against the backdrop of protest and unrest, with tens of thousands expected to rally against the government around the country. It’s timed for budget day, but the day of action is directed at government policies in general, such as the controversial decision to remove section 7aa of the Oranga Tamariki Act. Backed by Te Pāti Māori, the Toitū Te Tiriti strikes will include vehicle convoys this morning, along with a gathering at parliament later today. Police have just issued a warning to commuters that traffic could be disrupted. The Spinoff’s Liam Rātana has a report this morning looking at the historic use of activism by Māori and the somewhat muddle organisation of today’s event.

The government has been largely dismissive of the strike. Christopher Luxon questioned its legality, while Nicola Willis told The Bulletin: “If we’re all honest with ourselves, it’s a good day for a protest because everyone knows there will be lots of cameras at parliament”.

What we learnt from the census

Slightly overshadowed by the budget, but yesterday saw the release of data from Census 2023. The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus has 12 key details, including:

• New Zealanders are getting older. The median age is 38.1, up from 37.4 in 2018.

• For Māori, the median age is 27.2.

• New Zealand is becoming more diverse. Pākehā are still the largest ethnic group at 67.8%, but saw just 2.8% population growth. That’s dwarfed by the population growth for Māori (14.4%), Pacific peoples (16%) and Asian (21.8%).

Writing for RNZ, Pokere Paewai takes a closer look at what the census tells us about the Māori population and the challenges in collecting accurate data. Over on Interest, and perhaps most relevant to today’s budget, why the number of dwellings up and down the country increased faster than our population. Arguably the most interesting tidbit: Wellington had the second-lowest regional population growth, just 2.8%. And within Wellington city – a total population decrease of 48 people.

Click and Collect

• Continuing with our coverage this week of the news bargaining bill and government support for the media. The Spinoff’s Duncan Greive has the inside story of how the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill looked dead, before suddenly being revived.

• Auckland’s iconic department store Smith and Caughey’s will close in early 2025, the Herald’s Shayne Currie reported. It’s just a proposal at this stage, but the challenging retail landscape – especially in Auckland Central – would suggest it’s more likely than not. The store was also hit by a cyber attack yesterday, reported Stuff.

• Why you could soon be paying $15 more every month for your household power bill.

• Cook Strait “fiasco” troubles Mainfreight (paywalled).

Right now on The Spinoff

Jack McConnell shares some harrowing stories from the bookshop floor. Chris Mirams contemplates how connecting with Māoritanga helped him grapple with grief after his mother's violent death. Annie Te One and Jacqueline Paul argue that the Kāinga Ora review will test the budget's commitment to address Māori housing disparity. Zoe George describes why Olympic athlete selection is so complicated and contested.

Pop culture picks, with Alex Casey

Not buzzing for the budget? The Spinoff’s senior writer has your alternative reading list.

• Emily Nussbaum has dug into the reality of life on the Netflix juggernaut Love is Blind. It’s a show where contestants fall in love through a wall, but also have to endure a “lack of sleep, lack of food and water, twenty-hour work days, and alleged physical and emotional abuse.” Yikes.

• A weird pink and yellow ceramic goat made by King Charles is expected to fetch around $20,000 at auction. It was crafted by the king when he was at university in the 60s, and was gifted to a cook, and is said to represent “his early passion and artistic flare.”

• Very much looking forward to blobbing out and watching this Girls reunion via Vanity Fair, where Allison Williams and Ebon Moss-Bachrach sit down to reflect on the series seven years since it ended. No sign she will reprise her Kanye West cover, sadly.

That’s it for this morning, thanks for reading. I’ll catch you back tomorrow.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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