Stick to the facts, Hipkins tells flub-prone MPs

Are Labour's recent run of errors a sign of increasing panic within the ranks?

Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Friday, September 8, by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: Another poor poll for Labour, but things could be worse; Year-plus wait times worse than ever – but things will be better soon, promises health agency; and Bernard Hickey asks the prime minister to defend his time in government. But first, an awkward u-turn on discounted fares for disabled people couldn’t have come at a worse time for Labour.

A humiliating day for a government that doesn’t need another mistake

Yesterday in The Bulletin Anna highlighted reporting from Stuff that the government had mistakenly promised half price public transport for disabled people and only corrected the record when contacted by reporter Mildred Armah. Then, less than 12 hours later, the story took an absurd twist when Labour was forced to pull down a social media attack ad claiming National would cut “free public transport for disabled Kiwis”. Not only has free public transport never been on offer,to disabled New Zealanders, as we covered earlier in this paragraph neither has half price public transport, despite promises to that effect made in a press release for the May 2023 budget. Those in the Total Mobility scheme instead get up to 75% off taxi and shuttle fares, a discount made permanent in this year’s budget. National has announced it plans to axe the Community Connect programme of half-price fares for young people and those with Community Services cards. But there appears to be some confusion on the National side too, with RNZ reporting that a spokesperson said “the party had no plans to scrap the Community Services half-price public transport support”.

Stick to the facts, Hipkins tells MPs

The attack ad flub is just the latest in a string of inaccurate claims made by Labour MPs and candidates about their National rivals in recent days. As recapped by RNZ, Christchurch Central candidate Duncan Webb claimed the Matariki holiday would be abolished by a National government, and the right to 10 days sick leave was at risk – but National has committed to keep both. Senior MP Andrew Little was asked to remove a Facebook post “after making the hyperbolic claim that National and Act would ‘flog off the schools and sack all the teachers’”, writes Watkin, while in a debate on Tuesday, “a fired-up Willie Jackson wrongly claimed a National-Act coalition would ‘get rid of the minimum wage’”. As Claire Trevett reports in the Herald, Labour has also attempted to conflate Act policy both past and present with National’s, “claiming they would bring back student loan interest… and military-style firearms”. It’s a taste of National’s own medicine, perhaps – “in 2017 and 2020, Ardern faced repeated claims that she would end up adopting a wealth tax because it was the Green Party policy”. Chris Hipkins says he has warned his MPs to be more careful with the facts going forward.

Controversy over National’s foreign buyers plan rumbles on

Meanwhile National continues to face its own allegations of playing fast and loose with the facts. The controversy over its foreign buyers plan is well-worn by now, answered in part by National’s new preference for calling the questionable 15% tax a “fee” or “charge” instead. RNZ’s Giles Dexter and Tim Watkin highlight another potential fly in the ointment: whether it’s really possible that an overseas buyer could stay long enough to purchase property and “bring their talent here” (the whole point of the policy, according to National) but not long enough to become a tax resident, which would free them from the 15% “fee”. Elsewhere, deputy leader Nicola Willis has clarified that the authentic-looking case studies in an election brochure weren’t actually “real people”, as she had initially claimed. This one is a murky case – while these “real people” were in fact stock images, Willis says she was responding to AM Show host Ryan Bridge’s question about whether they were generated by AI. “Yes they were stock images, but they were real people,” Willis said.

Is this campaign as negative as some say?

All these criticisms over misinformation and inaccuracy have likely contributed to the impression in some quarters – including from National’s Chris Bishop – that this is already a notably negative campaign. “Let’s not catastrophise,” advises Tim Watkin, in a post tagged to the latest episode of RNZ’s Caucus podcast. “Let's take a breath and remember our political debate is a long way from the violence and polarisation we see in so many countries.” Still, Watkin notes that podcast co-hosts Guyon Espiner and Julian Wilcox feel that the “negativity Labour, in particular, is engaging in reeks of desperation, and looks like the tactic of a party that knows it's running a distant second”. It’d be remiss of me not to note that the subject is also given a good going over in the latest, reliably entertaining episode of The Spinoff’s own Gone by Lunchtime.

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Another poor poll for Labour, but things could be worse

A new poll spells bad news for Labour, though not quite as bad as in the poll’s immediate predecessor. The latest Talbot Mills Corporate poll has Labour at 30% support, down from 32% last month and giving it “one of its worst scores in that poll since it went into government in 2017”, reports the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan. Still, Chris Hipkins might just chalk it up as a win, given that the Post/Freshwater poll released yesterday morning had Labour on just 26%. Like the Freshwater poll, the survey period for the Talbot Mills poll finished just prior to the release of National’s tax plan (and the ensuing fallout), as well as before the release of Labour’s dental plan. Other topline numbers in the Talbot Mills poll are National on 36%, up one point, the Greens up two points to 12%, Act down one to 10%, and NZ First on 5.4%, putting them back in parliament. National would have 45 seats, Act would have 13, and they’d need NZ First’s seven seats to govern. The number of undecideds in the Talbot Mills poll has so far gone unreported – in the Freshwater poll, it was around one in five. 

Year-plus wait times worse than ever – but things will be better soon, promises health agency

The number of patients waiting more than a year for treatment continues to grow, the latest Te Whatu Ora data shows. Between March 2022 and March 2023 the numbers increased in 14​ of the 20 health districts, with by far the worst waitlist in Canterbury​, where 948​ people were waiting longer than a year at the end of March. That’s just shy of a staggering four times increase since March 2022, when Canterbury’s number was 238. It’s more dire news for Canterbury’s struggling health service, following the announcement yesterday that Christchurch’s only 24 hour surgery clinic would be forced to close overnight until Monday, due to nursing shortages. On waiting times, there’s some good news: Te Whatu Ora says it’s still on track to reach its goal of zero patients waiting longer than 12 months for treatment, excluding those waiting for orthopaedic surgery, by December 31 this year.

Chris Hipkins on leading a conservative left-wing government

In this week’s episode of When the Facts Change, an interview with Chris Hipkins. The prime minister joins Bernard Hickey to defend ruling out a potential wealth tax, pushes back on claims his is a “status quo” government, and tries to win Hickey’s vote in the process.

The Young Greens living and leading together

It was love at the first sight of a beret; now Lily and Ryan are cohabiting together and co-leading the Young Greens. But what happens when the pair attend a counter-protest that turns violent?

Click and Collect

• Two men rescued from snowy Mt Ngauruhoe near Taupō were dressed in street shoes, jeans, cotton t-shirts and sweatshirts.

• The UK recorded its hottest day of the year. In other news, this London-based Bulletin writer spent it indoors, working.

Click and Elect

• “Senior political staffers, even ministers” are apparently considering their next moves post-election, reports Tova O’Brien – “they think it’s over for Labour”. 

• Labour says it will bring in another 300 frontline police officers if re-elected in October.

• National’s tourism plan includes a new Great Walk in north Canterbury, an increase to the upper age for working holiday visas, and adding e-bike chargers to the length of the New Zealand Cycle Trail.

• Act’s Barbie-pink campaign coach has hit the road.

Right now on The Spinoff

Tara Ward ranks the most memorable characters from New Zealand advertisements. For the latest in our Hot Seats series, Shanti Mathias visits the Ilam electorate in Christchurch, where every candidate needs to win to be guaranteed a place in parliament. Hera Lindsay Bird advises a reader worried he can't make friends with women. Unity Books booksellers review their favourite children's books this month. And Charlotte Muru-Lanning has a PSA: rapid antigen tests are still freely available – you just need to know where to look.

Sporting snippets

• Hundreds of French fans will pack out a Wynyard Quarter restaurant tomorrow morning for the All Blacks’ opening clash in Paris.

• Ouch the Wahs: Star halfback Shaun Johnson is out of tomorrow’s match against Penrith due to injury.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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