Smouldering doubts about National's tax costings set to catch alight
Last night both TV news networks previewed modelling landing this morning that may raise further questions about the credibility of National's foreign buyer tax plan
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, September 14, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: putting a price on the cost of a smokefree New Zealand; thousands of Corrections staff to strike while Act wants to see more people in prison; food and rent prices still rising; but first, after a week of dancing around the credibility of its tax plan, National may face more heat today with new modelling due
Second major poll puts National and Act in position to govern
Last night’s 1News Verian poll is now the second major poll this week to put National and Act in position to govern. National was up 2 on the last Verian poll at 39%, Labour were down 1, on 28%, the Greens on 10% (down 2) and Act came in at 10%. That would give National and Act 62 seats and while NZ First came in above the threshold at 5% and would return to parliament, National and Act woouldn’t need support from the party to form a government.
Similar questions, different results
It’s probably quite understandable that some of you might be feeling some poll fatigue at this juncture, but the proximity of the Newshub Reid Research and 1News Verian polls this week has thrown up something interesting on a couple of peripheral questions and raised an interesting issue about how the framing of questions can yield what appear to be quite contradictory results. The Reid Research poll had a question about National’s foreign buyer tax, asking voters: “Should New Zealand let overseas buyers purchase homes over $2 million if they pay a tax?” 53% said yes, while 36% said no. The 1News Verian poll asked: “Do you support or oppose foreigners being allowed to buy existing homes in New Zealand that are worth more than $2 million?” 39% supported National's plan while 46% opposed it. The rest didn't know or preferred not to say. The Newshub poll added the tax carrot, while the 1News poll did not.
Nicola Willis sticking to deadline of introducing tax cuts by next July
National leader Christopher Lxuon has spent the week dancing around questions about the credibility of the modelling for its $14.6b election campaign tax cut centrepiece. Luxon refused to agree to release the party’s specific modelling for calculating how much money it would get from taxing foreign house purchases when pressed by Jack Tame on Q&A on Sunday, sticking with the line that it expects it to bring in $740m each year. Luxon was pressed again by Corin Dann on RNZ’s Morning Report yesterday about whether the Prefu forecasts should prompt a rethink on its tax policy. Dann presented Luxon with a list of economists who do not believe National's tax plan adds up. Luxon initially laughed in response but went on to deny the plan would be fiscally irresponsible. Speaking to Stuff, National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis is sticking by her deadline of introducing tax cuts by next July, saying she expects to have the majority of the public service “savings” needed to fund this plan done by Christmas.
Modelling due out today to cast further doubt
Newshub’s Amelia Wade asked Luxon about the impact of the plan on the housing market while out on the campaign trail yesterday. No concrete answers were provided. New figures out yesterday showed a slight uptick in New Zealand's average house prices, the first quarter of positive growth since late 2021. Wade later revealed that Treasury advice from 2019 relating to requests from foreigners to exempt luxury homes from the foreign buyer ban because they weren't competing with first-home buyers, was explicit about not doing that because demand for land to develop luxury homes drives up prices of land for more affordable housing. Both 1News’ Maiki Sherman and Wade previewed modelling due out this morning from economists that looks set to cast even more doubt on National’s plan, with Wade saying that the economists are from across the political spectrum and the modelling shows that National’s plan comes up short by hundreds of millions of dollars.
The power of digital connection
Not so long ago the only way to enjoy milestone events was to be there in person. But the last few years have shown us the wonders of tech can help us stay connected. In partnership with One NZ, The Spinoff spoke with three people about major life events – a wedding, a funeral and a career beginning – that happened digitally for them. Read more about their experiences, and the technology that made them possible, on The Spinoff now (sponsored)
Putting a price on the cost of a smokefree New Zealand
Interesting read from interest.co.nz’s Erik Frykberg yesterday on Treasury’s attempts to calculate the tax revenue loss associated with the country’s smokefree goals. As Frykberg writes, tobacco is one of the most highly taxed products on the market with the government making $1.886b from duty on tobacco in the most recent year. Very few people would argue against measures to stamp out cigarette smoking and this revenue must be as close to the defintion of ill-gotten gains as you can get, but Treasury needs to try and put a number on what the tax revenue loss looks like. As revealed in the Prefu, forecast tax revenue between this fiscal year and 2027 is $3.5b lower than previously expected. Treasury notes that “this partly reflects the expectation that recent weakness in tax revenue will persist and factors in the implications from the Government’s SmokeFree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan decision taken in 2022, which have now been quantified.” Frykberg writes that while Treasury officials set out to quantify the loss, predicting revenue to fall from $1.886b in 2022 to $1.036b in 2027, they then took a second look at their own calculations, consulted overseas experience and promptly hedged its own conclusions, saying there is “there is incomplete international evidence to indicate to what degree these collective actions will impact smoked tobacco consumption.”
Thousands of Corrections staff to strike while Act wants to see more people in prison
Corrections staff are planning to strike over pay rates and sick leave. More than 94% of members in the Corrections Association and Public Service Association unions voted to strike, issuing a two week strike notice to Corrections on Tuesday night. The unions represent more than 7,700 Corrections staff. Corrections has been chronically understaffed over the last few years, with incarcerated people in some prisons going without visits from friends and family for three years. Double-bunking and 22-23 hour solitary confinement stints have also been deployed to manage short-staffing. The department has spent millions on recruitment campaigns, having to pull a range of ads after the Advertising Standards Authority censured some of them for ‘problematic’ content.
The Act party launched its law and order policy yesterday and while Seymour judged a Barbiefied Act election sign as “more than Kenough”, he doesn’t think there’s enough people in prison. Act wants to see the prison population return to 2017 levels and defended his party's plan to spend $1b adding 500 places to the country's prisons, saying the policy includes measures that will help rehabilitate prisoners.
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Click and Collect
Eggs, chips and yoghurt drive the spike in food prices for August and rents are rising across the country according to Stats NZ data released yesterday
Overwhelming majority of residents are against the planned Tarras Airport development in Central Otago
Kiri Allan pleads not guilty to refusing to accompany police after crash, court case delayed to November
Jesus in the toast — why women may find it easier to spot facial features in inanimate objects after having a baby
Orangutan yeets possum from its enclosure at Perth Zoo. “Rest assured the possum was sighted scurrying off after being evicted. They are a very robust species,” said a spokesperson. If you’re human, don’t throw possums ok?
Click and Elect
Labour announces plans to train hundreds more doctors by 2027
What happened when Chris Hipkins visited The Love Shack
Chlöe Swarbrick might be the only Green MP who really knows what music she likes
Christopher Luxon plays the Rocky Balboa card, pitching himself as the debate underdog and downplaying his abilities ahead of the first televised debate next week
Act’s Simon Court says there’s no climate emergency
Joel MacManus speaks to Ian Cassels, the man behind the thwarted Shelly Bay development, about why he’s threatening to leave Wellington. Labour MP Willow-Jean Prime tells Stewart Sowman-Lund why she’s fed up with the polarisation of politics. Gabie Lardies approves of Kieran McAnulty’s kiwi man ensemble and Zoi the greyhound’s jacket in the latest installment of Shop the fit. Nicola Toki tells The Spinoff Books Confessional about her wild and busy life in books.
Sporting snippets
Sir Steve Hansen is back where he belongs, kissing and making up with Dane Coles (as far as I can tell, the kiss reference is metaphorical, possibly just a hug). Nature is healing.
The long sail to the America’s Cup begins on on Friday
Former All Back Julian Savea has signed a one-year deal with Moana Pasifika
Eden Park manages to get in on the Warriors action with a free “Wahs under the stars” event
Youth Wings: Young Act has all the answers
Despite both his parents being Labour voters, Ollie Murphy became an Act supporter while he was still at high school. Now, he is number 28 on the Act party list and picking up David Seymour from the Whāngarei airport in his Dad’s ute, all while preparing for the debate of his political life.
Watch the latest episode of Youth Wings above or on The Spinoff
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Nicola Toki did not like The Snow Leopard by Peter Mathiesson. She should try The Art of Patience by Sylvain Tesson. I think she would like that
"...some of you might be feeling some poll fatigue"
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