Shot of conference optimism with a poll chaser
Labour's first in-person conference since 2020 delivered energy to the base and two cost-of-living policies. A new poll then delivered news of a widening gap between the right and left blocs
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, November 7, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: climate compensation makes it onto agenda at COP27; National’s Hamilton West candidate selected; TVNZ set to lose $100m in ad revenue a year as a result of merger; but first, analysis of Labour’s conference and last night’s poll result
Jacinda Ardern speaking to media after her conference speech on Sunday. (Photo: Toby Manhire)
Legacy loomed large
Sometimes it doesn’t rain but pours with political news. And sometimes it rains right on your parade. Labour’s conference and resulting announcements provided more than enough news and analysis, and then the Newshub-Reid Research poll dropped last night to dampen Labour’s post-conference spirits. To kick off, we have Toby Manhire’s analysis of the conference. Manhire writes that two former prime ministers stalked the halls of the conference in South Auckland. The legacy of Norman Kirk loomed large, while the short but chaotic tenure of Liz Truss was invoked by way of comparison with Christopher Luxon and National’s tax plans.
The opposition also loomed, no less than 18 times in Robertson’s speech
Newsroom's Tim Murphy has a good write up on Grant Robertson’s speech which had 18 mentions of National and nine of Christopher Luxon. Murphy writes that it left the impression that the “prospect of a change of government, of Luxon and Nicola Willis and of ‘dangerous' policy reversals “living rent-free” in Robertson’s head. Christopher Luxon grabbed that sentiment saying that while it was ”incredibly flattering that they’re fixating on me”, they should be “fixating on the New Zealand people”.
$189m investment in childcare announced at conference
For the New Zealand people, prime minister Jacinda Ardern made two announcements during her speech. From April next year, more than half of all families will qualify for subsidies on their children’s pre and after-school care. The $189m investment in childcare is aimed squarely at addressing the cost of living crisis. The Herald’s Claire Trevett (paywalled) called the policy solid and more politically astute than the cost of living payment. The second was an increase to the Working for Families tax credits which almost 60% of New Zealand families receive. Both Working for Families and childcare policies are currently under review, so there’s runway for more changes before the election.
Poll result puts National and Act nearly nine points ahead of Labour and the Greens
Christopher Luxon branded the policies “band-aid” economics which echoes National’s response to the Budget in May. Last night’s Newshub-Reid Research poll has National and ACT on 50.7% while Labour and the Greens are on 41.8%. If you look at Toby Manhire’s tracking of the 1News-Kantar/Colmar Brunton polling over the last five years, the last poll in September had the Labour/Green bloc on 43% and the National/Act bloc on 46%. For the party faithful, the conference will have delivered the necessary boost to gear up for a fight that Manurewa MP Arena Williams said they’d take on “bare knuckled”. Might be more than a few band-aids required before we get to the election next year.
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Agreement to discuss climate compensation at COP27
For the first time since climate talks began decades ago, delegates from nearly 200 countries at the UN climate summit in Egypt have agreed to discuss compensating poorer nations for damage linked to global warming. COP27 got off to a delayed start as negotiators wrangled with the issue. Some research suggests the cost of climate-linked losses could reach US$580b per year by 2030. Stuff’s Oliva Wannan reports on our government’s ongoing granting of oil and gas exploration permits while our lead climate negotiations ambassador, Kay Harrison describes the notion that you would continue production and supply of new oil and gas as “crazy”.
National party announces candidate for Hamilton West byelection
Tama Potaka has been selected as the party’s candidate for the upcoming byelection. Potaka is currently the chief executive of Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki and also worked as a senior advisor to the NZ Super Fund. Potaka spent several years as a general manager for Hamilton-based Tainui Group Holdings. Nominations close at noon tomorrow for any further candidates with Act, Labour and the Opportunities party making their selections last week. Gaurav Sharma’s new party, the New Zealand Momentum Party, won’t be registered in time for the byelection but Sharma claims the core campaign team who helped him win the Hamilton West seat in 2020 with Labour have left to join his new political party.
A message from The Spinoff’s founder and publisher, Duncan Greive
The Bulletin’s readers are the bedrock of The Spinoff, a community of nearly 40,000 who read Anna’s work every day and rely on it to help understand this country. We at The Spinoff rely on our audience too – you are by far our largest funders, and the only reason we exist at all.
I’m here to ask you for your help again. The cost of living crisis, which we have covered extensively, has hit us and our people too – at the same time as membership income has remained flat post-pandemic. Big tech has taken over the digital advertising market, making us need your donations now more than ever.
As we head into an election year in 2023, and with rumours of Rupert Murdoch returning to NZ surfacing just yesterday, I would love it if you would consider donating to help keep our independent, NZ owned and made journalism free for all. Please support The Spinoff today.
TVNZ set to lose $100m a year in advertising review as a result of merger
The prime minister did a whole lot of media before this weekend’s conference, including a 23-minute interview with John Campbell on TVNZ’s Q&A. Towards the end of it, Campbell asked Ardern what the TVNZ/RNZ merger was designed to achieve. “Future proof us” was the answer. As Thomas Coughlan reported over the weekend, advice from officials suggests that future may include the loss of a third of TVNZ's existing commercial revenue, about $100 million a year, within five years. The details were revealed in a late draft of a business case for the government's RNZ-TVNZ merger, obtained by the National Party.
Click and collect
Doctors reflect on assisted dying a year on from it becoming legal in New Zealand
Interesting read and listen from RNZ’s Mediawatch on whether our name suppression law is actually “broken”
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$80m underspend on much-needed infrastructure in Christchurch
Are our eels really slow-growing or are they just hungry?
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Post-mortem Monday
Watching the reactions to the Black Ferns’ semi-final win from the sports journos and fans I follow on Instagram was pure joy on Saturday night. You get a few good takes from The Bounce’s Dylan Cleaver here before it goes subscriber-only including a note about the contrast between the men's and women’s game at the moment. Madeleine Chapman writes that the Black Ferns are the best rugby product in the world right now. Like thousands of others, I jumped online Sunday morning to try and book tickets to the final and failed. The final is almost sold out which puts it on track to break the world record for attendance at a women’s rugby event. Organisers are trying to free up more capacity.
The All Blacks also won against Wales. Stuff’s Robert van Royen has your watercooler talking points on that. The Blacks Caps will face Pakistan in the T20 world cup semi-final after a bunch of pool play results and South Africa’s pretty shocking loss to the Netherlands garnered the winner of the match between Pakistan and Bangladesh a semi-final berth. Both the men’s and women’s league teams are playing in the Rugby League World Cup. The men’s team squeaked home against Fiji to nab a semi-final spot while the women’s team are currently playing their second game in the tournament, against the Cook Islands.
The Unruly Heirs of Sarah Palin
Voting in the US midterms is underway. Sarah Palin herself hasn’t run a great campaign for the one house seat in Alaska but as Rosie Grey writes, while she may fade from national politics, “the “mama grizzly” brand she invented is here to stay.” Grey looks at the new generation of Republican women who make Palin’s “Going Rogue” days look subdued.
