Rising tide lifts more Greens as polls show party bringing record number of MPs to parliament
The Greens are on track to be one of this election's biggest winners and consensus emerges about National's self-inflicted "injury"
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, October 12 by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: Gaza’s only power station runs out of fuel; the policy gaps as we head into the home straight; comedian Cal Wilson remembered; but first, yesterday’s “pollooza” shows up an own goal and a “Green wave”
Greens on track for its biggest caucus yet
Oh, to be an increasingly popular but slightly endangered native insect on a Green party HQ wall last night. Both the Newshub Reid Research and 1News Verian polls show the Greens on track to bring in a record number of MPs at the election. Newshub’s Reid Research poll had the Greens up nearly one point to 14.9%, while the 1NewsVerian poll has the party up one to 14%. Based on those results, the Greens would bring in 17-19 MPs. The results are being described as unexpected for the party, with a sense that it’s been running a stealthy, quiet campaign. I’m not sure that’s entirely accurate, given the dominance of the minor parties over the campaign. Both co-leaders, Marama Davidson and James Shaw, have brought their A-games at debates. Some might even say it’s MMP in action as the globe grows ever hotter and the main parties hug the middle, but I’m picking some good post-mortem examination of the party’s probable success after the election.
Climate change concern growing
While climate change is not in the top five issues concerning New Zealanders today, according to the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor, it is significantly more of a big worry for the future, with one of four expressing concern. People are now more worried about climate change than before the 2020 general election, but concern is still lower than its peak of 27% in February 2023 after the Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. It’s pretty remarkable that just over 12 months ago, James Shaw was re-elected as the party's co-leader after facing a leadership challenge. As RNZ reports, Shaw has characterised aspects of this campaign as a turnoff for the public as National and Labour staged “a Punch and Judy show”, battling over who had the bigger fiscal hole. As Marc Daalder reports for Newsroom, while current polling would see the Greens in opposition (despite the perennial “teal deal” whispering), Shaw is waiting and watching to see if results bear out differently.
Same, same but slightly different
To the rest of the party polling and the now entrenched position of NZ First as power broker. Both polls threw up different results for National but neither showed a result allowing them to form a government with Act alone. Labour is up slightly, while Act’s support continues to fall.
National’s self-inflicted injury
One thing that does seem sure is that National’s late call on NZ First has cost them. As Toby Manhire writes, “messages of the last fortnight might have had an unhinged ring, but the real strategic blunder happened some time ago. The blunder was failure to follow Key’s example and rule out, or even rule in, Winston Peters, but – and this is the critical bit – do it well in advance, so that any embers had extinguished by campaign time.” Newsroom’s Jo Moir writes that “when the election is over, and a government is formed, Christopher Luxon may finally admit the mistake he made when he single-handedly breathed life into Winston Peters’ campaign”, while the Herald’s Claire Trevett says (paywalled) “the various attempts to play Whac-A-Mole with Winston Peters have failed miserably.”
Special election edition of The Bulletin for Sunday
We have one last leaders’ debate tonight, and as usual, we’ll be liveblogging and filing verdicts tonight on the Spinoff. This is my last Bulletin for the week and last before election day. Catherine will do her usual Friday spot but I will be at Spinoff HQ on election night filing results and updates, dissecting the immediate aftermath late on Saturday night, and I am back on Sunday morning with a special election edition of The Bulletin. I am letting you know now in case it arrives (probably after the All Blacks v Ireland game), and you find yourself wondering if it’s Monday already. Godspeed and vote if you haven’t if already. See you on the other side.
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Gaza’s only power station runs out of fuel and emergency unity government formed
Major news outlet are reporting that Gaza's only power station has run out of fuel after Israel cut access to electricity, fuel, goods and water supplies. The BBC has a summary of the latest developments overnight as the death toll in Israel from the Hamas attacks reaches 1,200 and the death toll in Gaza resulting from Israeli airstrikes reaches 1,100. Israeli minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition party chairman Benny Gantz have agreed to form an emergency government and war cabinet comprising Netanyahu, Gantz and Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant. The BBC is reporting on claims by a US congressional panel chairman that Israel was warned by Egypt of potential violence three days before Hamas attacked. Netanyahu has described the reports as “absolutely false”.
More:
Prime minister Chris Hipkins has asked for official advice on whether Hamas should be designated as a terrorist organisation
Why the BBC doesn't call Hamas terrorists
“The innocent people get killed, both sides” - Newshub’s Lisette Reymer’s latest report from Tel Aviv.
The policy gaps
Shanti Mathias has a piece this morning looking at some of the policy gaps that have emerged amid the flurry that landed over the campaign. We have already noted the lack of media, arts and culture, AI and disability policy from some parties. Christopher Luxon himself has made a note of New Zealand’s “inward-looking” character and yet, despite the current state of global precarity, the brutal wars ongoing and unfolding, and the increased interest in the Pacific from China and the US, it does seem odd that we have a dearth of defence, refugee and international aid policy.
The Herald’s Michael Neilson has also highlighted the lack of discussion about family violence (paywalled) during the campaign. In all the talk of increased crime, the most significant proportion of that increase has been family violence reports (paywalled). Neilson, Chris Knox and Derek Cheng have done great work on crime statistics this year for the Herald. As Cheng noted back in July in his investigation into claims crime was out of control (paywalled), one of the best ways to tackle crime appears to be preventing crime that takes place within the family or at home.
Click and Collect
Comedian Cal Wilson, who died yesterday aged 53, is remembered as amazingly talented, kind, quick-witted and generous
No comment from Gore mayor as council votes to retain Stephen Parry as its interim chief executive until his replacement can be found.
Net migration is up 28.5% compared to pre-Covid levels
Click and Elect
Toby Manhire on the nailbiter electorate race in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
Kieran McAnulty’s most dedicated campaign volunteer is his mum
Newsroom’s David Williams maintains his relentless focus on Christchurch with a look at what Labour is offering Cantabrians
Our very last instalment of Shop of the Fit sizes up the style of an election icon
The worm electrocuted politics in 2002, and now, as Duncan Greive argues, we live in the worm's world. Graeme Edgeler examines whether the Electoral Commission has gone too big on early voting at the expense of on-the-day polling places. Ruby Tui reveals the similarities between her and the book character she identifies with the most. Want to look younger? Gabi Lardies reports on the latest anti-ageing hack. Tara Ward power ranks the Celebrity Treasure Island contestants after an emotional week.
Sporting snippets
Dan Carter to be inducted into the World Rugby Hall of Fame
It’s tight, but the question has been answered. The All Blacks do perform slightly better under a government led by one party in particular (paywalled)
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Interesting to see if "Party vote Green" people switch to "Party vote Labour" as a strategy? We will soon know!
2026 or 2029 when Green surpasses Labour as the dominant party of the left in NZ?