Rain and Wayne to carry on
While the upper North Island braces for more heavy rain, Auckland mayor Wayne Brown remains adamant he’s not resigning as a text message about “media drongos” sent by Brown comes to light
In today’s edition: two polls, same result; hospital waiting lists grow; government to take another look at proposed emergency management law; but first, big questions emerge after Friday’s severe flooding, more heavy rain is forecast and a mayoral text message emerges
Wayne Brown says he won't resign as more heavy rain heads towards the upper North Island (Photo: RNZ / Finn Blackwell)
Mayor adamant he will not resign as text message about cancelled tennis, “media drongos” and flooding emerges
On Friday morning we were worried about getting to the (subsequently cancelled) Elton John concerts and Wayne Brown’s love of tennis was but a mere quip. There are a few key threads emerging after the severe flooding in Auckland where four people died and the repair bill may get close to $500m according to one rough estimate. But first to the question of whether Auckland was failed by poor leadership and communications. Stuff’s Kelly Dennett has pieced together an excellent timeline of events that reveals a city and its leaders caught on the backfoot. Mayor Wayne Brown remains adamant he will not resign but has admitted mistakes were made. The Herald has obtained a text sent by Brown in which he griped about having to cancel tennis “to deal with media drongos over the flooding tomorrow”. Toby Manhire pens a note to the rain in the form Brown might be wishing he’d stuck with - the letter.
What is an atmospheric river and how much rain did Auckland get?
Auckland has now had over 769% of its normal January rainfall and over 38% of its annual rainfall. The cause? An atmospheric river. James Renwick of Victoria University explained what one is really well in comments provided by the Science Media Centre. Atmospheric rivers are vast corridors of moisture that extend from the tropics to higher latitudes. The warmer the temperature, the more water vapour they carry. A significant atmospheric river carries as much water as the Amazon river. The Herald’s Jamie Morton outlines what we know about the second atmospheric river headed our way today.
“We’ve built our cities to be vulnerable to – and exacerbate – major weather events”
Big questions now exist about how well suited Auckland, and all our cities, are for a future where these events happen at a greater frequency. Both the prime minister and Auckland’s mayor agreed that what happened on Friday was a result of climate change. Timothy Welch, senior lecturer in architecture and town planning at the University of Auckland, says we’ve built our cities to be vulnerable to – and exacerbate – major weather events such as the one we saw in Auckland on Friday. Welch argues there is a better way to design our cities. He’s talking about sponge cities. No joy in saying this, but Bulletin readers were introduced to that concept after the Nelson floods last August. Here’s the really good long read on sponge cities that was included.
The need to know section
MetService has issued heavy rain warnings for Northland, Coromandel, the Auckland region and the Bay of Plenty. Satellite imaging shows the deepening low moving towards New Zealand. The warnings span a variety of locations and time frames between today and Wednesday so please keep an eye on them, take care and follow official advice. I hope all parents and carers with kids at kura, in early childhood education and at school have heard this by now and are coping with the news, but schools in the Auckland region are to remain closed until February 7. That’s been done to reduce traffic on the roads as repairs get underway. It looks like a lot of schools found out via the media and not from the Ministry of Education. Here’s a few other useful links if you need help or want to help:
What you need to know about the state of emergency
How to clean up after a flood
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Bump for Hipkins in two polls but both deliver a hung parliament
I thought a few people’s heads might pop off when news of a double poll landed yesterday but blessedly the Newshub-Reid Research and 1News Kantar polls revealed similar things so further neck and head strains were prevented. Both polls were done after Jacinda Ardern resigned. Both have Labour ahead by one or two percentage points and both show a hung parliament. Hipkins and Luxon are very close in the preferred prime minister stakes in the 1News poll but Hipkins is well ahead in the Newshub poll question about who people trust more. This morning Toby Manhire writes that National strategists began the year well into the task: plotting a path to defeat Jacinda Ardern’s Labour. Christopher Luxon will be experiencing the whiplash of the last two weeks as much as anyone.
Hospital waiting lists grow
Chris Hipkins is expected to announce his cabinet reshuffle today. There’s been some speculation that Andrew Little may lose the health portfolio to Ayesha Verrall. Little says he is happy to stick it out as the health minister. The argument for Little losing the portfolio is generally based on Little’s somewhat testy relationship with the health sector, while the argument against points to Verrall's relative inexperience. Unwelcome news for everyone involved over the weekend as the Herald’s Nicholas Jones reports (paywalled) that hospital backlogs have worsened to nearly 67,000 people now overdue for treatment or a specialist appointment. That’s an increase of 4,131 from the March 2022 figures Little cited when announcing the plan to clear wait lists.
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Government to take another look at proposed emergency management law
Stuff’s Thomas Manch reports that the government is poised to strengthen a proposed emergency management law that could allow the National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) to intervene if local leaders fail to act. The Emergency Management Bill has been in development since late 2021 but is not yet publicly available. It’s understood the Government will be taking another look at the bill to see whether provisions around declaring a state of emergency should be set out in law. As it stands, the bill would empower Nema’s chief executive to set rules that could allow the agency to more readily intervene in local emergencies and override a decision-maker who has failed to carry out their responsibility.
Click and collect
Now is the time to re-think the Earthquake Commission
Marae open their doors to support whānau affected by the floods
Images of extent of flooding from Auckland Zoo - hats off to them for moving the alligators
Sea lions versus traffic
Possible lease of life for Hamilton’s grand old courthouse
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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