Prime minister brings hammer down on Treaty bill

Christopher Luxon finally issued National’s definitive position on Act's Treaty Principles bill while confirming 100-day plan commitments on law and order

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, February 8, written by Anna Rawhiti-Connell.

In today’s edition: Mike Smith to get his day in court; unemployment rate defies expectations; rule change on gay and bisexual men donating blood could triple donations; but first, government confirms 100-day plan law and order commitments as Luxon removes doubt about party’s position on Treaty bill

Prime minister Christoper Luxon (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Absolutely positively not supporting Act Treaty bill beyond first reading

Yesterday, prime minister Christopher Luxon started the day on the AM Show by confirming the Act party’s proposed Treaty Principles bill was “a bottom line in their [coalition agreement] negotiation - it was one of the major sticking points in the negotiation, we came to a compromise.” By the end of the day, during which Act launched a campaign aimed at building public support for the bill, Luxon was even more definitive on National’s position. Speaking to media at his post-cabinet press conference, Luxon said, “The agreement is that there is a bill that will be drafted for a discussion in the select committee. We will support it to first reading, but we won’t be supporting it beyond that.” Asked whether a big groundswell of public support would shift National’s position, Luxon said it would not. Asked if removing the referendum element would change the party’s view, he again said no.  As AAP’s Ben McKay reports, Act party leader David Seymour responded, saying, “There’s never been a prime minister in history who really doesn’t care what the public think.”

No peace until bill truly dead

In a column for the Herald in late January (paywalled), Matthew Hooten suggested both parties could be in breach of good faith clauses in the coalition agreement over the bill. “Act’s strategy seems to be to offer fake Treaty principles to the public, generate a few hundred thousand supportive online select-committee submissions, hold six months of heated hearings, hope for civil unrest, produce polls showing a majority wishes the Treaty had been written by Mill, and then accuse National of siding with Māori radicals against “mainstream New Zealanders”. If so, National is perfectly entitled to accuse Act of breaching paragraph 21[of the coalition agreement],” he wrote. This morning, the Herald’s Claire Trevett writes (paywalled), “Luxon might be able to avoid the law change, but not the debate in the coalition government’s name. It is the debate that is divisive. Yes, National voting against it renders it a dead duck bill. But there won’t be much peace until that happens.”

Prison reduction target abolished (sort of, again) 

The government also moved yesterday to crack on with the law and order commitments laid out in the 100-day plan. As the Herald notes, the clock runs out of the government’s time to tick off the 49 actions in the plan in the first week of March. The government confirmed legislation would be introduced to remove funding for section 27 cultural reports from the legal aid scheme. You can read an explainer on what those reports are here. One of the other 100-day plan commitments was to “abolish the previous government's prisoner reduction target”. Labour binned its commitment to the target during last year's election campaign as it went toe-to-toe with National on law and order. As The Post’s Thomas Manch reports, the target is actually a goal that was part of Corrections’ 2018 “statement of intent”. Justice minister Paul Goldsmith confirmed it was a target that had filtered through the justice system, and no policy advice on dismantling it had been sought. 

Prison population rising, Corrections staff shortages ongoing

As the Herald’s Michael Neilson reported in December last year, the Corrections union has warned the government of a growing staffing “crisis” as well-documented staff vacancies persist. The country’s prison population started to rise again in the year to September 2023, increasing by more than 10% ahead of Ministry of Justice projections. The department’s briefing to incoming corrections minister, Mark Mitchell, also identified “significant recruitment and retention challenges” that go beyond hiring prison officers. The department is experiencing the same challenges as the health sector in recruiting nurses and psychologists to work within the system. RNZ’s Felix Walton reported yesterday that the number of prisoners kept in intervention and support units (ISUs) is increasing after a slump during the pandemic. (ISUs) are often used to house mentally ill prisoners. As Walton reports, prisoners in ISUs are isolated for up to 23 hours a day for an average of six to seven days at a time. The United Nations' definition for solitary confinement is 22 hours or more without meaningful human contact.

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Supreme Court judgment supports climate activists’ bid to sue emitters

In August 2019, Iwi leader and climate activity Mike Smith filed proceedings against seven of New Zealand's top carbon emitters. Smith made three civil court claims against the companies under tort law. The respondents applied to strike out the proceeding, with lawyers arguing that damage from climate change is best tackled by parliament and not by the courts. The High Court struck out two of the claims, and the Court of Appeal went on to strike out all three. Yesterday, as RNZ’s Eloise Gibson reports, the Supreme Court reinstated Smith's case, giving him the right to sue the seven companies for their role in causing climate change. Plain English summary from the Court here. Smith alleges that the respondents have damaged, and will continue to damage, his whenua and moana, including places of customary, cultural, historical, food gathering and spiritual significance to him and his whānau. It could be a hugely significant case and will be watched closely by lawyers and climate groups around the world.

Unemployment rate defies expectations

The unemployment rate rose 0.1% in the last three months of 2023 from 3.9% to 4%. Economists' consensus was that it would land around 4.3%. As always, we confront the strangeness of this being billed as bad news because of what it may indicate about inflation and the data’s possible impact on the Reserve Bank's decisions about the Official Cash Rate (OCR). As interest.co.nz’s Dan Brunskill reports, some economists are now warning it could prompt another OCR hike. Others say it might just delay a cut after talk of interest rates falling below 6% by the end of this year. To quote ANZ’s David Croy, “anything is possible”. Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said he expected unemployment to rise to 5% in the second half of 2024, which would allow for OCR cuts to begin in August. The Herald has obtained modelling done for the Ministry of Social Development (paywalled), which shows estimates of the time beneficiaries will spend on income support rising sharply, with an expectation that will worsen as unemployment rises.

Click and Collect

• New research provides evidence to support an application to change controversial rules about gay and bisexual men donating blood.

• Government scrapping a major science reform plan, including a $450m investment in Wellington.

• An early report on how the not-yet-mandatory phone ban in schools is being received

• As BusinessDesk’s Oliver Lewis and Dileepa Fonseka report (paywalled), the Greens, Act, and Labour parties have joined our Wellington editor, Joel MacManus, in finding that a new Wellington housing report has major flaws.

• Australia will follow in many European Union countries' footsteps and pass legislation guaranteeing workers the right to disconnect.

• Following Tracy Chapman’s appearance at the Grammys, media have been trying to find out what the famously reclusive artist has been up to. She’s been living a quiet life involving dogs, bookstores and bakeries, and I hope it stays that way for her.

  Feeling clever? Click here to play 1Q, Aotearoa’s newest, shortest daily quiz.

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