PM eyes new export markets on week-long Southeast Asian tour
As Winston Peters returns from yet another foreign tour, his boss has jetted off to visit the leaders of Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, April 15.
In today’s edition: Iranian attack on Israel risks setting off new Middle East war; economists make their inflation predictions; new details of Bondi knife attacker emerge. But first, a look at where the prime minister is going this week, and what he hopes to achieve.
PM bound for Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines
Chris Luxon has a busy week ahead, having flown out on Sunday morning for an Southeast Asian (SEA) tour aimed at strengthening New Zealand’s relationships across the region. First stop Singapore, where his time with veteran prime minister Lee Hsien Loong is expected to be “somewhat of a love-in”, writes Newsroom’s Laura Walters. Luxon is an avowed fan of Singapore’s highly pragmatic, foreign-capital-friendly economic model, and he tells Walters the city-state is “our highest priority” in the region. Luxon then flies to Bangkok to meet with Thai prime minister Srettha Thavisin. Luxon will find “a kindred spirit” in Thavisin, a relatively new PM who has focused on economic development since his election, writes the Herald’s Fran O’Sullivan (paywalled). The last stop on Luxon’s itinerary is Manila, where he’ll hold meetings with President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr, commonly referred to as Bongbong. The son of the infamously kleptocratic Marcos Sr, Bongbong has an MBA from the Wharton School and a strong inclination for business, says O’Sullivan. Luxon is scheduled to return home on Saturday – Air Force 757 depending, of course.
Luxon eager to demonstrate commitment to Asia ties
The tour comes on the heels of Luxon’s attendance at the Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summit in Melbourne last month. Having been advised that the government’s engagement with SEA is not what it should be, Luxon took the opportunity to assure the gathered leaders that NZ is redoubling its efforts in the region. Now he’s following up those talks with in-person visits. David Capie, director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University, tells Walters that while the diplomatic and economic importance of SEA is incontrovertible, it’s still a big ask for a prime minister to take a week out of his domestic schedule for a foreign tour. “I hate to sound like a cheerleader. But I’m genuinely really, really impressed and pleased to see this visit going ahead as it is.”
A potentially huge export market
Accompanying Luxon will be a delegation of 24 business representatives, led by Fonterra chief executive Miles Hurrell and Air NZ chair Dame Therese Walsh. "What I want to do is expose those business leaders in New Zealand to the potential of that market," Luxon tells RNZ. "These are markets that I know well, I've spent a lot of time in these countries, I know there's lots of opportunity." As a bloc, the Southeast Asian countries are the world’s 5th largest economy. The government wants to double the value of NZ’s exports in the next decade, and trade with the fast-growing economies of SEA could be key to achieving that goal. NZ has excellent trade access to the region via a number of trade pacts which have helped increase our exports there by 13% in the past year alone. Trade expert Charles Finny tells RNZ there is "enormous scope" to build on that success, particularly in the realm of international education. "Look at how much Australia is doing in that part of the world. What we do is paling into insignificance.”
Where does Winston Peters find the energy?
Sticking with foreign affairs, Winston Peters role as foreign minister is the subject, at least in part, of two NZ Herald pieces published over the weekend. Among the people profiled by Audrey Young in her comprehensive round-up of Peters’ key advisers (paywalled) is Jon Johannson, the former political scientist who is now Peters’ special foreign affairs adviser. He was previously chief of staff when Peters was last in government. Also on Peters’ team is Michael Appleton, the former ambassador to Sri Lanka who is widely known among the cricketing fraternity as “New Zealand’s walking Wisden’s”. Elsewhere, Heather du Plessis-Allan delivers an encomium on Peters’ performance as foreign minister – all the more impressive, she writes, considering he just turned 79. “I don’t know why I’m surprised he’s this good at the job,” she writes. “But there’s no arguing that, when it comes to raising the energy, the county’s current oldest MP is doing it.”
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Iranian attack on Israel risks setting off new Middle East war
The Middle East is on edge as Israel considers its next move following Iran’s missile attack over the weekend. Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria on April 1 that killed top Revolutionary Guards commanders, reports Reuters/RNZ. The consulate strike followed months of clashes between Israel and Iran's regional allies, triggered by the war in Gaza. Remarkably, the large-scale Iranian attack caused only modest damage in Israel as most were shot down with the help of the US, Britain and Jordan. “An Air Force base in southern Israel was hit, but continued to operate as normal and a 7-year old child was seriously hurt by shrapnel. There were no other reports of serious damage.” An Iranian army chief warned on television that "our response will be much larger than tonight's military action if Israel retaliates against Iran" and told the US its bases could also be attacked if it helped Israel retaliate. The UN Security Council is meeting at 8am today NZT.
Economists make their inflation predictions
Experts are forecasting another drop in annual inflation this week, but not as large a decrease as the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) was hoping for, reports Susan Edmunds at Stuff. On Wednesday Stats NZ releases its the Consumer Price Index update for the March quarter, and economists are picking an increase of 0.6% to 0.8% which would take the annual rate to 4%. It’s currently at 4.7%, and the Reserve Bank had forecast it would be at 3.8% this week in its February Monetary Policy Statement. “However, weakness in activity and the emergence of spare capacity across the economy, particularly in the labour market, should be sufficient for the Reserve Bank to tolerate near-term strength, given our assessment of a pipeline of domestic disinflation ahead,” ANZ economist Henry Russell. Translation: the Reserve Bank is highly unlikely to veer from its current course of keeping interest rates steady, with the expectation of a cut late this year or early next. “All up, disinflation progress is occurring more slowly than the RBNZ anticipated, but progress is being made,” Russell said.
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