Over 3,000 public service jobs now proposed to go
The Ministry of Education confirmed a proposal to reduce headcount by 565, while Oranga Tamariki's proposal would result in a loss of 447 jobs
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, April 18.
In today’s edition: police reject latest pay offer; headline inflation rate masking sticky domestic inflation; ministry aiming to extend consents for emergency housing in motels in Rotorua; but first, yesterday’s job cut proposals add another 1000 roles to the public service job loss tally
Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki job cuts proposed
As Azaria Howell reports for The Herald, yesterday, an additional 1,000 roles were added to the tally of proposed or confirmed public service job cuts. The Ministry of Education confirmed a proposal that would result in a net reduction of 565 roles, 225 of which are already vacant. At Oranga Tamariki, 632 roles are proposed to be disestablished, and 185 are proposed to be created— resulting in a net loss of 447 jobs.
Oranga Tamariki’s workforce has grown from 3,970 full-time roles to 4,904 in five years. It’s an agency that’s come in for a lot of criticism, with chief ombudsman Peter Boshier (who is now staying in his role FYI) recently calling for sweeping changes.
Roles involved in school lunch programme proposed to be cut
The workforce has grown from 2,904 in Q2 of 2018 to 4,509 at the end of December. The Public Service Association (PSA) said the proposed Ministry of Education cuts represent 12% of the workforce.
Roles proposed for disestablishment include 14 people (including eight nutrition experts) who work on the free school lunch programme. As Howell reports, 197 roles are set to go from the curriculum centre, 91 from regional offices, 39 from its property group and 22 from policy positions. The Post’s Tom Pullar-Strecker wrote a very good breakdown of where that growth occurred last November (much-requested context is often always there). He concluded that the biggest single explanation for the increase in the ministry’s workforce is that, since 2017, it has taken on 550 extra education advisers and an additional 170 curriculum advisers and related staff. Aspects of the curriculum content are now being reviewed by a new ministerial advisory group, while a review is underway into school property projects.
Over 3,000 roles have or are proposed to be disestablished
At the end of December 2023, Public Services Commission data shows that there were 65,699 full-time roles within the public service, up from 49,730 in Q2 of 2018. BusinessDesk’s Jem Traylen did some useful number crunching (paywalled) on where that growth occurred and the size of the public service late last year. Using Stuff’s running total, of the over 36,000 roles across the agencies, departments and Crown Enterprises (including Callaghan Innovation and the Internal Affairs unit dealing with water reform) that have made job cut proposals represent an 8.2% reduction in public sector roles to date. By way of comparisons, thanks to The Post’s Anna Whyte, the reforms and cuts of the 1980s reduced the public service from 66,000 workers in 1984 to less than half that by the end of the 90s.
New guidelines on when you should and shouldn't send kids to school
In education adjacent news, associate education minister David Seymour announced yesterday that the promised guidelines to help parents and schools decide whether a child is too sick to attend or not have been released. The guidelines recommend sending your child to school if they have a mild cough, headache, runny or blocked nose, “usual” symptoms relating to a known allergy or skin problems that aren’t infectious, like eczema. The Herald’s Claire Trevett writes (paywalled) that Seymour has made something of a rod for his own back in the school attendance targets. On absences relating to illness, Trevett argues Seymour will be relying on the quiet majority who do think the bar for “keeping a kid home” has “got too low”, but his solution “runs contrary to his usual political philosophy” of people being better placed than politicians or bureaucrats to make decisions about the way they live their lives. That’s akin to the line prime minister Christopher Luxon was running on the teaching of sex ed in schools in November (since revised).
This morning on The Spinoff
has her own summation of how to interpret the guidelines. “If your child has a snotty nose, Seymour would like you to share it with your child’s underpaid and overworked teachers. Because if everyone has a snotty nose, then that’s basically the same as no one having a snotty nose. If any teachers cannot work because they have pneumonia combined with the runs, they can be replaced by the hundreds of public servants who will soon be unemployed. “
The climbing (and compounding) costs of climate change
From the cost of transitioning to renewable energy, to the infrastructure costs associated with severe weather events, climate change continues to be a major inflationary force. We asked Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to explain what effect climate change will have on inflation, housing and policy – and whether there's a way out. Read his full column on The Spinoff now (sponsored)
Police reject latest pay offer
The Police Association said 75% of police officers voted “no” on accepting the government’s latest pay offer and is warning the government it has one last chance to “lift their game.” A third-party arbitrator will now be called in to settle the pay negotiations. Police minister Mark Mitchell told Newshub the outcome is “incredibly disappointing” saying the new offer “was significantly better than what was presented in August last year.” The new offer included the overtime rate the Association asked for, a $1,500 cash payment for police and a locked-in pay increase in the third year.
The rate of inflation news giveth and it taketh away
Yesterday’s inflation rate of 4% is down from last quarter’s 4.7% (the lowest it’s been since June 2022) but it still prompted a fairly flat response from economists who warn that the headline number is masking sticky non-tradeable (domestic) inflation. Prime minister Christopher Luxon said it was “good news but that there was more work to do”. It’s outside an earlier forecast of 3.8% for this quarter from the Reserve Bank, but that was signalled last month. BNZ’s Stephen Topliss said, “There was nothing in [the] data that might spook the central bank, equally, there was nothing in the data that would have the bank scurrying to bring forward its rate cut agenda.” “The details were not as good as the headline suggests,” said KiwiBank chief economist Jarrod Kerr. Economists Stats NZ pointed to rising rents, construction costs and rate increases as the largest contributors to the annual inflation rate. Stats NZ’s Nicola Growden “rent prices are increasing at the highest rate since the series was introduced in September 1999”.
If you’re interested in a few different cuts of inflation measures, including tradable, non-tradable and rental and services inflation, I recommend yesterday’s Only Charts from
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“In the UK, MPs have voted in favour of prime minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to make it illegal for anyone born in 2009 or later to buy tobacco products.”
How stupid do we look now.
"Aspects of the curriculum content are now being reviewed by a new ministerial advisory group"
I feel a tranche of Orwellian "alternative truths" about to emerge into the humanities curriculum.
Though perhaps a more detailed look at early C20th European history might be in order.
Such as 'How austerity paves the way to to fascism'.