Omicron fuels wave of event cancellations
Health workers warn the system isn't ready for a major omicron outbreak, with ICU capacity struggling to meet normal demand
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, January 25, by Justin Giovannetti. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
My thanks to Duncan Greive for writing yesterday’s newsletter on what turned out to be a very busy weekend. I hope many of you enjoyed a pleasant Wellington anniversary.
In today’s edition: Tonga still restoring the basics; MBIE says higher petrol prices driven by profits; Tova O’Brien loses employment case; but first, omicron is here.
Covid has upset plans around the country. (Getty Images; design by Archi Banal)
We’re at the start of what’s likely to be a months-long omicron outbreak, with the worst weeks of Covid-19 ahead of us. So pace yourselves. Eight new omicron cases were detected in the Nelson-Tasman region, Auckland and Palmerston North yesterday, with the new surge still forming behind a delta outbreak that is continuing to bubble away. As The Spinoff’s live update reported, there were 17 delta cases detected with another 43 infections at the border yesterday, nearly all of the latter assumed to be omicron. The number of locations of interest due to omicron has also increased sharply, with Rainbow’s End being added to the list. Covid-19 minister Chris Hipkins has warned that tens of thousands of daily cases are possible within weeks, according to One News.
The Spinoff’s Covid data tracker has the latest figures.
A reminder: There’s no better time to be scanning QR codes and using the app to aid with contact tracing.
The wave of event cancellations has continued after the move to red. While life remains largely unchanged for the vaccinated, the move to the red level has had an immediate impact on events, which are capped at 100 people when vaccine passes are used. Stuff has provided an updated list of cancellations across the motu. Most of the cancellations so far are in January and February, but with omicron not expected to peak until March, the list is only expected to grow in the coming days.
The end of the beginning? While it all sounds grim, the WHO said overnight that Covid-19 is entering a new phase around the world and omicron could bring about a global return to “normalcy”. As the NY Times writes, there’s cautious optimism that the milder variant could gradually help contain the virus. However, there’s a lot of pain between now and then, so we still need to minimise the coming damage.
Healthcare experts are warning the system isn’t prepared for omicron. Critical care nurses told RNZ the country is short 90 ICU beds for a major outbreak. They say that with the country understaffed in normal times, and struggling with medical care outside of an outbreak, cardiac and cancer patients are likely to see delayed treatments in the coming weeks. Based on what’s been seen overseas, the the Nurses Organisation warns infections could mean a quarter of health staff are in isolation at any one time, putting the system under incredible strain. Modeller Michael Plank has warned that half the population could become infected.
A long weekend in orange. One region of the country that spent nearly no time in the orange level was Northland, which was out of red for only three days before Sunday’s national move back to the top of the traffic light system. Hospitality businesses said they were ‘gutted’ by the move, after only a few weeks of brisk summer business. As it happened, I was in Northland for its entire orange period and local business owners told me there was a clear sense that they were struggling after Auckland’s long lockdown. However, most conversation was around vaccine mandates and the trouble retaining vaccine-hesitant staff, not the traffic light system itself.
Mask use is likely to change in the coming weeks, with a move away from fabric. The ministry of health is reviewing its mask guidelines, however experts say it’s time to wear well-fitting N95 respirators, RNZ reports. The government has said that surgical masks will likely become the default in the coming days, but experts say they are too ineffective for omicron. Other experts say that wearing a surgical mask, with a close-fitted fabric mask over it is better than what most of us have been doing for months.
The week ahead. Ashely Bloomfield and associate health minister Ayesha Verrall are expected to front a press conference tomorrow with new rules for self-isolation, contact tracing and the availability of rapid tests. A new national masking strategy could also figure in their announcements.
A note from Duncan Greive, publisher of The Spinoff. Omicron means that, yet again, we at The Spinoff will be devoting significant resources to covering this enormous and complex story. It comes just as we caught our breath after delta, which arrived and hit our commercial revenues hard just as we’d made a major investment in people—hiring more journalists, along with data and technology specialists to help make our work more robust, tactile and accessible.
I need to be frank: We have never experienced anything remotely so challenging as the past six months. I approach the coming weeks with trepidation, as so many others in business will be doing. So if you value what we do, please donate today. Every dollar is ring-fenced to support journalism, and right now we need reader support more than ever.
One more thing: if your organisation wants to partner or advertise with The Spinoff, we would really love to hear from you: contact our head of commercial Saj Patel to find out how to get involved across our platforms.
Tonga’s rebuild enters new phase, prompts call for basic supplies. The country’s full recovery will take a long time, but drinking water is now being distributed among the islands and a rebuild is underway. RNZ reports that there’s now a call for breakfast food, gardening tools to quickly repot plants under a blanket of ash, and outboard motors after many of the country’s boats were smashed. Sela Jane Hopgood writes in The Spinoff about packing supplies to send to Tonga.
MBIE finds higher costs at pump due to surging profits. The government thinks fatter importer margins are responsible for increasing petrol prices, Newsroom reports, a finding rejected by importers. Motorists could soon see some relief as new competition rules come into effect next month, requiring more transparency from fuel retailers.
In another combustible market, MBIE is launching an investigation after a young Auckland couple have lost their first home following the developer’s decision to push up the price by $150,000. The F&P Dream Homes general manager told Stuff the couple would still get a good deal if they’d only fork over the extra cash. The value of their new-build two bedroom has risen by almost $300,000 over the past year and it isn’t finished yet. The couple say they now have to delay starting a family and are priced out of the market. Facing questions, the developer again repeated the size of the capital gain the couple have given up by not simply handing over $150,000.
Tova O'Brien has lost her employment case. The broadcaster will need to wait two months to start her new job as the host of Mediaworks’ new flagship breakfast radio show. After quitting as Newshub’s political editor in December, the network’s owner told O’Brien it would enforce a three-month restraint of trade clause in her contract because it views the morning radio programme as competition to what had been her usual evening TV political news. The Employment Relations Authority agreed her new role does conflict with the old. She was also fined $2,000 by the authority in a conflict of interest finding for providing her new employer with a quote and photo to announce her hiring. O’Brien told Stuff she was worried the decision would create a “chilling precedent” for workers across New Zealand business.
A crucial week for Boris Johnson’s premiership. The British prime minister is likely to face a report this week into allegations that his office held a series of lockdown-breaking parties at Downing Street. The Observer has written a primer on the report and the once unknown civil servant leading the probe. It’s expected that Johnson could face calls to step down if he’s found to have breached strict lockdown rules by partying at a time when Britons were dying without being able to say goodbye to loved ones in person.
Not farewell, just mā te wā. The Spinoff’s Leonie Hayden is stepping down as the editor of our Ātea section this week and she’s written a note that’s heartfelt and has a good dose of mischief. She also takes a long look at the state of Māori journalism in this country, which is largely a good news story, but could be better. I highly recommend that everyone read this and reflect on it. I’d also like to thank Leonie for being one of the kindest and most welcoming voices when I first got to New Zealand, and one of the most interesting people out there. Thanks pal.
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news?
Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz
Image: Archi Banal
Right now on The Spinoff: Dylan Reeve looks into viral rumours that children are collapsing after Covid vaccinations. No, it hasn’t happened. All the conspiracies seem to point to Liz Gunn. The Spinoff has written a guide to help if you’ve come into contact with omicron. Sam Brooks reviews a show that’s all the best bits of Downton Abbey, multiplied. Chris Schulz has a PSA for Auckland parents that’s all about whales.
Nico Porteous’ perfect run before the Olympics. The New Zealand freestyle skier won a gold at the X Games in Aspen on the superpipe with a flawless final ski described as “one of the most technical runs ever”, the NZ Herald writes. The 20-year-old is expected to try to repeat the performance next month in Beijing for the Olympics. He won bronze in 2018, but he’s now a favourite to win gold.
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