National facing pressure on foreign buyer ban policy
While voters have been told they can expect an announcement on the party’s position “very, very shortly”, New Zealand First has wasted no time making its position known
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, August 17, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: RBNZ pushes hope of OCR cut out to 2025; Let's Get Wellington Moving set for some movement; Elizabeth Kerekere says her former co-leaders oversaw “an epic failure of leadership”; but first, the potential for a very permanent reversal of New Zealand’s foreign buyer ban
Expect an announcement on foreign buyer ban from National “very, very shortly”
As we reported in our Live Updates yesterday morning, a redacted document shared to Twitter allegedly included details of National’s policy on New Zealand’s foreign buyer ban. On Tuesday night Newshub’s Amelia Wade reported that it looked as though the party was set to announce a U-turn on the ban after Christopher Luxon said “we will have more to say” in the next few weeks. When asked if he would scrap the ban on TVNZ’s Breakfast yesterday morning, he said National would have more to say on that subject soon and voters could expect an announcement on the party’s actual position “very, very shortly”.
Reversal could be permanently locked in by recent trade agreements
Labour has criticised the possible future announcement and warned any reversal could be permanently locked in by recent trade agreements. Labour passed the ban before the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade deal came into effect. As interest.co.nz’s Dan Brunskill notes recent trade agreements and the “most-favoured-nation” clause in those mean other signatory countries would have the right to buy on the same terms as New Zealanders if the law was now overturned. David Parker says “Labour believes New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthy foreign buyers… National needs to come clean on their plans to sell out New Zealand again.”
The housing market then and now
Obviously, the housing market has changed somewhat since the ban was introduced in August 2018. The national median house price then was $550k. It’s now $770k, down from the great heights of $925k in November 2021. Quite obviously, there are myriad factors impacting affordability. While headlines persist about tough markets and sales volumes at the moment, yesterday’s monetary policy statement from the Reserve Bank revealed the bank thinks house prices are now likely to rise much faster over the coming years than previously forecast. Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen says “from an affordability point of view, if you've got no change in mortgage rates, and prices are hockey sticking up a bit, affordability will be even more cooked. It’s a bit difficult to stomach.” On the foreign buyer ban, Olsen says the impact of the policy has been negligible. “Everyone needs to commit to building more and more housing and increasing housing supply instead of tinkering with demand again,” he said.
Prime territory for New Zealand First
As Newshub’s Jenna Lynch notes, protectionist sentiment is prime territory for Winston Peters and New Zealand First. Peters has long railed against foreign buyers. This makes any moves to undo the ban a particularly awkward talking point should the National party need New Zealand First’s support to form a government after the election. Peters said yesterday that during a housing crisis New Zealanders should not be competing with foreign buyers who don't live here. Referring to the National party, Peters said “I would have thought they'd have enough sense not to go down that track.” As it currently stands, Christopher Luxon has not ruled out working with New Zealand First.
‘There’s no rehab’: Two tales of rural drug use, and the barriers to help
Rural people who use drugs are a diverse group, but a lot of the problems that stem from using drugs in isolated communities are the same. On The Spinoff, Don Rowe speaks to two rural users to unpack some of the barriers to help that they face, and how the challenges of using present differently in their communities. Read more here (sponsored)
The hawks are back as RBNZ pushes hope of OCR cut out to 2025
It’s not quite a kettle of hawks but the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) tone yesterday was described as “mildly hawkish”. The RBNZ held the OCR at 5.5% but advised that the peak might be closer to 5.59% and that another hike could be possible. It also pushed its first projected OCR cut out to the first half of 2025. New forecasts from the central bank indicate New Zealand’s economy would enter recession in the third quarter this year. That’s the three-month period ending in September, which we find out about in December, once again potentially positioning RBNZ governor Adrian Orr in a most unseasonable light. As Liam Dann writes (paywalled), the picture painted by the central bank was one of New Zealand walking “an economic tightrope”. “To one side, and dominating recent headlines, there is the risk that a slowing Chinese economy and falling prices for New Zealand exports might drag us down into recession. To the other side is the ongoing risk that inflation may prove to be more deeply embedded and persistent than hoped”, Dann writes. Dairy prices fell by 7.4% at yesterday morning’s Global Dairy Trade auction. The RBNZ’s website also took a brief technical tumble and was down after the announcement at 2pm yesterday. I can only assume it was due to demand akin to trying to buy Taylor Swift tickets.
Let’s Get Wellington Moving set for some movement
Luke Malpass reports in The Post this morning that central government is likely to take more control of the Let’s Get Wellington Moving programme. The new government Policy Statement on Transport will be announced today and will see Wellington councils “take a back seat in any highway building” and Waka Kotahi asked to fast-track work on the programme. The Herald’s Bernard Orsman reports that further work on developing Auckland’s northwestern motorway for buses is also a spending priority. Popping up amid the pile of anticipated transport announcements is the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan who writes that the National party’s lack of climate policies is concerning. While committed to emissions budgets and our Paris Agreement obligations, Coughlan says the party doesn’t have a credible plan to reach these goals.
The team behind everyone’s favourite election voting tool needs your help
We’re two months from election day which means it’s nearly time for the return of everyone’s favourite election voting tool, Policy. But the team needs your help to make it happen. Since 2017, tens of thousands of Spinoff readers have used the Policy tool to compare candidates and parties each election. In the current climate, Policy is as vital as ever, and it needs a little help to get to the finish line. If you’ve used the tool in the past or plan on using it in the coming weeks, please consider donating here to keep it running.
Elizabeth Kerekere says her former co-leaders oversaw ‘an epic failure of leadership’
Ex-Green MP Elizabeth Kerekere used her valedictory speech last night to criticise her former co-leaders, James Shaw and Marama Davidson, saying they oversaw “an epic failure of leadership”. Kerekeke again “categorically” disputed any allegations of bullying and cited an email her lawyer received four weeks after the original incident (the “crybaby” message in a Greens group chat), stating that there had been no formal complaints received from anyone else. In a written statement provided to The Spinoff, the party said a number of people had wished to make formal complaints against Kerekere, and “we were in the process of agreeing how these would be addressed.” “Before that could be agreed, Elizabeth Kerekere resigned as a Green Party MP and Green Party member'“, the statement says. In other news from the House, as trailered in the “bills, bills, bills” segment yesterday, environment minister David Parker has, as the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan writes, “reached an Everest”. The two pieces of legislation that will repeal and replace the Resource Management Act had their third readings yesterday and will shortly receive royal assent. The Water Services Entities Amendment Bill also passed its third reading while National MPs Michael Woodhouse and Paul Goldsmith capped off question time by getting stuck in a lift together.
Click and Collect
Two weeks before the government’s announcement that it was partnering with BlockRock to launch a renewable energy fund, the investment giant appointed the CEO of the world’s biggest oil company to its board
Interesting piece on misconceptions about sexual assault and the problem with jury trials
Pie of year scandal after wrong winner named
“Snakes. Why'd it have to be snakes?” A new snake species has dropped and it’s been named after Indiana Jones himself. Harrison Ford responds in a truly excellent way.
Too magical not to include — US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen inadvertently ate hallucinogenic mushrooms in China
Join The Spinoff Members! Become a member to support what we do and help us do more. Every contribution exclusively funds our journalism and helps keep it freely available to all. Join today! Already a member? Ka nui te mihi, your support means the world to us.
Stewart Sowman-Lund joins Nicola Willis for an afternoon of door knocking as she sets her sights on winning the Ōhāriu seat. A bunch of people’s hearts beat in unison about our stint as Fifa World Cup hosts. Shamubeel Eaqub offers us a glimpse of his very full bookshelf in the latest edition of The Spinoff Books Confessional. Gabi Lardies is paralysed by indecision buying a pair of headphones and argues we should stop researching all of our online purchases. Duncan Greive examines holiday group etiquette and praises the holiday villian.
Sporting snippets
England and not Australia’s Matildas waltz into Fifa World Cup final
Ben Stokes is coming out of retirement from one-day internationals to play for England at the Cricket World Cup.
Whither China?
If you’re interested in what’s happening in China (plenty would argue we all should be right now), I can recommend Adam Tooze’s unfolding mini-series on
In part one he dives into the Western commentary around China at the moment, including the Adam Posen piece from Foreign Affairs I included in last week’s Bulletin about Fonterra’s milk price forecast. In the second, he traces differences in opinion over the causes of China's economic malaise to deeper differences over history, economics, politics. More installments to come.
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
If you liked what you read today, share The Bulletin with friends, family and colleagues.
When are voters going to wake up to the fact that National comprises a rich boys club so they are happy to sell off NZ as long as it makes more money for the likes of them. When do you ever hear them discussing the really important stuff like climate change. National, Act and NZ First coalition of chaos.
Has the National party never heard of long term leases instead of foreigners actually BUYING
land in our country? and then only permission to lease if they live here and contribute something to NZ.