Mystery cases key as cabinet reviews Auckland lockdown
Experts warn that the city's level four lockdown could be extended today as a handful of unlinked cases could rekindle a delta outbreak
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, September 13, by Justin Giovannetti. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: It’s decision day across the country on alert levels, The Spinoff has turned seven and a look at the National party’s leadership.
After nearly a month, when will Auckland’s lockdown end? The skyline seen from Devonport.
A number of recent mystery cases in Auckland are at the centre of cabinet’s debate today. Stuff reports that the prime minister and cabinet are focused on the possibility of undetected cases in the city as they prepare to review pandemic restrictions. Jacinda Ardern said “a handful” of the city’s 34 unlinked cases are of concern to officials. While the director-general of health said there's believed to be no widespread community transmission in Auckland, nearly half of the 43 new cases detected over the weekend were infectious in the community at some point.
Those 34 unlinked cases are a concern. These are cases that just can’t be connected to any of the city’s 16 sub-clusters, meaning contact tracers can’t establish any shared location where the cases might have picked up the virus. The rules were even broadened for this outbreak to make linking cases easier. In previous outbreaks, someone had to be in very close proximity to a known case for it to count as a transmission event. Often it would be something specific, like touching the same elevator button within seconds. With delta, just being in the same venue at roughly the same time is now considered enough. Stuff has an explainer on what the unlinked cases mean for the outbreak.
Auckland has now been in lockdown for nearly a month and experts warn it might need more time at level four. The ministry of health announced on Saturday night that three more people who had visited Middlemore hospital for non-Covid reasons had tested positive for the virus, including a five-month-old. According to the NZ Herald, Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank said the ongoing drip of unexpected new cases was a concern and might point to an undetected cluster. He called an immediate move to level three “very risky.” Mayor Phil Goff said an extension of lockdown “looks likely.” Falling test levels in Auckland also won’t help with the decision.
At the core of today’s decision will be confidence in the data. The prime minister’s office saw what happened in Victoria when the Australian state lowered restrictions in recent months despite cases still spreading in the community. Numbers that had been falling turned around quickly and started increasing. Auckland’s delta outbreak started with a single case and while level three restrictions would lower the number of people potentially infected by a case, it could significantly increase from what we’ve seen under level four lockdown. “Even a handful of cases going unnoticed could turn into a bonfire at level three and a conflagration at level two,” according to Newsroom.
What could help now is vaccination levels. Rawiri Jansen told RNZ that Auckland should get all of the extra Pfizer doses secured from Spain. While that’s unlikely to happen, higher vaccination levels will help the city if level four is maintained for longer.
Graham Le Gros, one of the country’s leading immunologists, told the Science Media Centre that vaccinations could be the key to ending this outbreak and future ones:
"We need to prepare for the time that elimination does not catch up with the delta virus, and New Zealand will have to swing into action to keep the vaccinations up… Even if we catch up with this outbreak, it is highly likely there will be others.
“It's not that NZ is not trying hard enough, it's just that the delta variant does not play by the rules, it’s a virus constantly able to change infection strategy and change the degree to which it induces symptoms. Also, in future we will have to trust that the vaccinated immune system of a healthy human is the only thing able to protect against the worst effects of the virus.”
Cabinet’s decision will be announced by the prime minister at 4pm today.
On Friday, The Spinoff turned seven. Duncan Greive wrote about what’s a significant achievement for something that started with two people and no firm direction. He captured some of the madcap energy that is core to The Spinoff, but there’s more to it.
After spending my career at large news organisations with floors of reporters, the thing about The Spinoff that continues to amaze me is how a small, dedicated group outperforms daily. There’s something special here and it’s reflected in people who show up every morning and create something they’d really like to read, listen to or watch that day.
Another thing that’s essential is the support of members. Every dollar members contribute directly funds The Spinoff’s editorial team and is devoted to ensuring we do more. Click here to learn how you can support the team today.
An Auckland couple will be prosecuted for flying to Wānaka. According to RNZ, the two used their essential worker status to drive across the Auckland boundary and board a flight in Hamilton. The police called it a “calculated and deliberate flouting” of level four rules. The two will be prosecuted for violating the current health order.
Police have also revealed that one person has now been prosecuted for breaching level two. The NZ Herald reports that a Rotorua man was arrested last Wednesday after being asked to wear a mask or leave a mall by security, he refused to do either. He then refused to comply with police, adding a charge of obstruction to his failure to follow the health act. Three people also tried to cross the Auckland boundary claiming to be essential workers but provided a fake document, they got off with a warning.
The Covid numbers: 20 new community cases were reported yesterday and 43% (10) of the previous day’s cases were active in the community while infectious. All the cases were in Auckland. 922 cases have now been detected in the delta outbreak, of which 352 have now recovered. 61,810 people were vaccinated yesterday.
The prime minister has denounced online claims a teenager died of the Pfizer vaccine. The NZ Herald has reported that Jacinda Ardern isn’t pleased with a group online claiming that a year 13 student in Auckland died from the jab. A student has died, but of a suspected heart attack. “All I would say is, those who seek to make those links, I just can't imagine how distressing that would be for family members,” said Ardern. All adverse reactions to the vaccine are reported to an independent monitoring agency and then posted publicly by Medsafe.
Denmark has lifted all Covid restrictions as it reaches a high vaccination level. As The Guardian reports, more than 80% of people over the age of 12 are now fully vaccinated and the Danish government has declared that Covid-19 is no longer a “socially critical” disease. Despite still reporting nearly 400 cases daily, the country has gradually lowered its restrictions as vaccination levels have increased. Denmark has sold 500,000 extra doses of the Pfizer vaccine to New Zealand.
Boris Johnson has announced a U-turn on plans for a vaccine passport. The UK prime minister has scrapped the idea after a backlash from members of his party according to Reuters and will now start to end some Covid-19 emergency powers.
Australian news organisations can be sued for comments left under their social media posts. Hal Crawford has looked at what a recent court decision means for the country and whether it could cross the ditch. As someone who has spent far too much of his life monitoring comments, I certainly don't think they always raise the level of debate. While comments do act as a signal to algorithms and other readers that something has captured wider interest, it’s unlikely any organisation would want to be legally liable for them. The decision has shaken a lot of news publishers in Australia and some in New Zealand.
The state of the National party’s leadership. I’ve covered politics for a long time and a story last week involving Siouxsie Wiles is the type of sleaze that turns me off. I won’t add to it today. But Judith Collins waded into it and Toby Manhire has written that we all deserve better. He does an excellent job of putting together the pieces in a powerful commentary. I generally extend more sympathy and benefit of the doubt to the leader of the opposition than she’d readily admit, but her behaviour last week simply doesn’t reflect the temperament of someone who wants to be prime minister. After Toby wrote his story, Judith blocked him on Twitter, but a number of members of her caucus read it approvingly. Hopefully she’ll do better going forward.
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news?
Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz
Right now on The Spinoff: Leonie Hayden writes about comedian Angella Dravid and a new podcast retelling the story of her first disaster of a marriage. Rawinia Higgins, the Māori language commissioner, writes that this is the time to recognise and restore te reo. Tomorrow at midday is Māori language moment. Wellington councillor Fleur Fitzsimons says the city's doesn't need a “refreshed corporate identity” to fix its troubles. Reweti Kohere reports that renters facing issues this lockdown don't have a rent freeze or eviction ban to help. Sam Brooks speaks with the writer of an Ashley Bloomfield romance novella that someone apparently needed to write.
For a feature today, a look at our Covid-19 future. Jamie Morton in the NZ Herald (paywalled) has written an in-depth feature that considers where the pandemic is headed in the coming months and years. It’s a story of the possible evolution of the variants, as well as the risks of ongoing transmission of a virus that kills some and leaves many others with long-term health problems.
Like all stories based on predictions, he warns that the experts have so far been too optimistic about Covid-19. When 140 experts were asked last April about the UK’s expected deaths in 2020, the median prediction was less than half the eventual toll. The UK also remains the cautionary tale going forward:
Even with 94 per cent of English adults carrying antibodies from vaccination or past infection, and even with many people wearing masks, avoiding social contacts and working from home, England registered 649 Covid-19 deaths over the last week of August.
Equivalent to New Zealand's population, that came to nearly 60 deaths a week.
The All Blacks crushed Argentina yesterday on the Gold Coast. The Argentine side competed hard but suffered on the defence to the All Blacks who were brilliant on the attack. Part of it was the story of the Barrett trio. Following the game, Stuff rated all the players, from the excellent Scott, to the unflappable Bauden and the strong Jordie. Top honours also went to new captain Brodie Retallick for a powerful showing.
That's it for The Bulletin. If you want to support the work we do at The Spinoff, please check out our membership programme.