Mr Luxon goes to Washington
With all eyes on the health of US president Joe Biden, an Oval Office visit for our PM seems near impossible.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, July 11.
In today’s edition: No move for the official cash rate, a brand new episode of Juggernaut looks at homosexual law reform in 1985, and further detail about the grounding of the Aratere has emerged. But first, the prime minister’s big week in the United States.
Diplomatic speed dating
In what is one of the biggest tests of Christopher Luxon’s diplomatic skills to date, the prime minister is in Washington DC, schmoozing with world leaders and lawmakers alike. Earlier in the week, the PM bounced around the US Capitol meeting with a range of high profile senators and congresspeople from both sides of the political aisle. The Post’s Luke Malpass wrapped that part of Luxon’s tour here, reporting that he met with American leaders critical to the Pacific relationship, including the “de facto Indo-Pacific tsar” Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state.
Next on the agenda – and the primary reason for Luxon’s visit – is the Nato summit. The prime minister will be gunning for face time with US president Joe Biden – even if it’s just a quick hand shake and “hello”. If he misses that, he still has a busy agenda, reports RNZ’s Jo Moir. Luxon will host bilateral talks today with France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada's Justin Trudeau, and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, along with senior Republican (and Trump backer) Ted Cruz. In news sure to fire up a certain community, Luxon just shared a photo on social media with BlackRock CEO. The investment firm partnered with New Zealand on a climate fund, announced last year.
A tense backdrop
As we’ve talked about in previous Bulletins, the coalition is going hard and fast on strengthening diplomatic ties. And with that comes the myriad of tightropes that need to be walked. Luxon and his team of senior foreign ministers, including Winston Peters, have so far been adept at managing this. The visit to Washington is no different, coming against the backdrop of ongoing questions about the health of president Joe Biden and the increasing possibility that Donald Trump could soon be back in the White House. As the Herald’s Claire Trevett writes, Luxon isn’t touching either of these topics with a barge pole. Speaking to reporters in front of the US Capitol building – a perfect backdrop for a self-confessed American politics junkie – Luxon spent most of his press conference reiterating his consistent line that he would not get involved in US political issues. It’s the right, albeit safe, call for a relatively rookie prime minister, though does little to dispel concerns being raised back in New Zealand about what a second Trump term could mean for trade with the United States given the former president’s plan for a universal tariff.
In worse news for Biden, high profile supporter George Clooney has urged the president to step aside in an open letter published in the New York Times overnight. “We are not going to win with this president.”
Oval Office a no go
Clearly, the goal for any New Zealand prime minister visiting Washington is a visit to the White House. A closed door sit down with the US president would be the ultimate coup for Luxon, though it appears off the cards at this point, reported Tova O’Brien for ThreeNews. Not only is there intense domestic scrutiny on Biden’s performance, but given he is hosting dozens of nations in his own backyard for Nato, New Zealand is likely not a top priority. Jacinda Ardern scored time with Biden back in 2022, but that was the first serious meeting with a US president since John Key and Barack Obama several years prior. Donald Trump’s tenure got in the way, though he made time for Ardern on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly in 2019. At the time, foreign minister Winston Peters described the 25 minute meeting as a triumph. “In the world of diplomacy, this level of engagement is gold,” said Peters.
So could another less formal “triumph” be on the cards again this time? Luxon hasn’t been willing to speculate, telling reporters it’s not a “focus” of his visit, though he is attending a White House dinner hosted by Biden later today. His frequent confidante Sir John Key may beg to differ on whether a meeting should be a focus, telling Claire Trevett in 2022 that it was important not to let the US relationship drift and adding that “the White House is critical”. If he’d prefer to listen to Helen Clark, she spoke to The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire about the significance of a presidential meet-and-greet a couple of years back.
The Nato relationship
President Biden is older than Nato, Stuff’s Tova O’Brien reminded us all yesterday. It’s the 75th birthday of the Cold War-era alliance, though it’s hardly a celebration this year. The ongoing Ukraine conflict has bolstered Nato, or at least made it more relevant. That’s part of the reason New Zealand has been invited to attend the summit for the third year in a row (with our third prime minister after Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins) and the second tightrope the prime minister has to walk. Luxon timed his appearance at Nato with the promise of further aid for Ukraine, announced yesterday morning. As Newsroom’s Sam Sachdeva wrote, the repeated invites for New Zealand show that our ties to Nato are strengthening, and also that issues of security are increasingly becoming global as opposed to matters tied to particular regions. We’ve seen that in our part of the world as well with nations, the US included, competing for Pacific influence, as this map by The Guardian illustrates.
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No move in the cash rate as pressure builds for cuts
It came as little surprise that the official cash rate has once again remained static on 5.5%. The Reserve Bank made the call yesterday, Interest’s Dan Brunskill reported, despite increasing pressure for cuts in the face of economic struggles. As we discussed last week, economists are screaming out for monetary policy to be relaxed, with BNZ’s head of research Stephen Toplis suggesting a recent business survey showed inflation had been beaten. The Reserve Bank has so far stayed the course, previously hinting rate cuts may not be possible until August next year. But yesterday, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee acknowledged that while the cash rate needed to stay restrictive, “the extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures”. In the Herald this morning (paywalled), Jenée Tibshraeny explains why the “monetary policy ship” could be turning, though history tells us we can never be too sure.
Meanwhile, there was an update on another topic we’ve discussed in recent weeks: migration. Stats NZ reported the net loss of people heading to Australia was nearly double the number in 2022, as 1News reported here.
Listen to episode 5 of Juggernaut – Nine Day Wonder
At the urging of the gay community, Fran Wilde takes the homosexual law reform bill to parliament in 1985. The campaign encounters fierce resistance from MPs on both the National and Labour sides of the house. Is it fair for Labour today to claim it as a party triumph? At the same time, strides are being taken in introducing the Treaty of Waitangi into political and legal structures, as part of a blizzard of reforms. In one crucial example, change will come after David Lange misreads his notes.
Follow now to make sure you get every episode. Juggernaut was made with the support of NZ On Air.
‘That's a life changing project for me, creating a taonga for a whole community.’
Transitioning from a studio-centred art practice to one built around large-scale public sculpture and community projects has afforded Dr Areta Wilkinson new opportunities. Now she's creating collaborative works of art that cross disciplines, transcend time, and bring visibility to cultural narratives and knowledge. Read more about Dr Wilkinson's creative practice on The Spinoff now. (sponsored)
Click and Collect
An exclusive from The Post reveals that the autopilot was mistakenly pressed onboard the Aratere before it ran aground, and the crew may have been unable to disengage it. It follows a tweet from New Zealand First that claimed similarly, though with the added detail that someone had popped off for a coffee during all of this (an allegation “categorically” ruled out).
The release of the government’s climate strategy came on the same day MBIE released damning advice on the proposed reversal of the oil and gas ban. And, reports Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro (paywalled), the government has been accused of breaching the Zero Carbon Act.
Siouxsie Wiles’ friend and original co-complainant Shaun Hendy argues compellingly that the outcome of the microbiologist’s Employment Court case should prompt “serious soul-searching” for the University of Auckland.
Do the Greens have an issue when it comes to the treatment of their wahine Māori MPs? It prompted an fiery exchange between Waatea News reporter Claudette Hauiti and Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick this week. Meanwhile, former Green member turned independent MP Elizabeth Kerekere told Waatea News that the “mana of our Māori women” had been coming under attack from the party.
Further detail from the report into ousted Green MP Darleen Tana reveals police were called after an angry confrontation with a migrant worker.
The government’s top health officials were so concerned by its decision to repeal the smokefree generation law that at least one considered quitting. Meanwhile, RNZ’s Guyon Espiner reports that the associate health minister Casey Costello was reprimanded by the chief ombudsman for trying to keep information about tobacco and vaping policy secret.
The first trailer has been released for Taika Waititi and Jemaine Clement’s locally shot reboot of Time Bandits for Apple TV+. And, something I’m even more excited for (sorry Taika and Jemaine), a first glimpse at Severance season two.
Gabi Lardies unveils her bold plan to literally dig deep and solve the housing crisis. Joel MacManus, sorry, the “Hamburglar”, writes an open letter to police minister Mark Mitchell from the Criminal Association of New Zealand, pleading for crime not to be made illegal. Illustrator Zak Ātea discusses her favourite books. Tara Ward writes an obituary to Ferndale's rose, Leanne from Shortland Street. Preyanka Gothanayagi reviews an all-night sleep concert.
Pop culture picks, with Alex Casey
The Spinoff’s senior writer shares some must reads from the world of entertainment.
Delighted that The Lord of the Rings musical is coming to Auckland for FIVE WEEKS?! First opening on the West End in 2007, critics were perturbed by the “charismatic and creepy” performances, others disliked the “overblown, over-orchestrated" score, and some went as far to rename it “Bored of the Rings”. See you opening night, my precious.
Very excited to read this from Emily Nussbaum's new book Cue the Sun! The Invention of Reality TV about the early days of Survivor. Includes the fact that a tentless crew member "wound up sleeping on the beach for three days, side-by-side with cameras that cost $125,000. Sliding over his body were white sea snakes with tiny jaws."
Obsessed with Shortland Street's overly dramatic RIP Leanne social media post causing mass confusion as to who had actually died. Reminds me of the collective national mourning experienced when Sarah Potts carked it, and the many, many furious comments left on Facebook by well-wishers.
That’s it for The Bulletin today, thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow morning.
Let me know in the comments, or get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz, if you have any feedback on today’s issue or anything in the news.
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Trump is clearly sliding into dementia, but all eyes are on Joe Biden? How does that even work?