Luxon promises 'tough love' in bleak State of the Nation speech
He claims years of financial mismanagement are to blame for the "fragile" state of the country, but Labour says he's talking nonsense.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, February 19, written by Catherine McGregor.
In today’s edition: Businessman Karl Tiefenbacher declared provisional winner in Wellington council byelection; Massive expansion of speed camera network planned; anti-vax unions for teachers and health workers launched. But first, things are bad, says the prime minister, and he knows exactly who’s to blame.
PM Christopher Luxon speaks on November 29, 2023 at Parliament. (Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
The state of the nation is….
In the US, it’s near unthinkable for a president to end their annual address to Congress without a firm declaration that the state of the union is “strong”. What a contrast with yesterday’s State of the Nation speech here in New Zealand. The state of the nation is “fragile”, PM Christopher Luxon said, thanks largely to a series of financial blunders by the previous government which would necessitate “tough choices” and “tough love”. Among the alleged missteps highlighted in the speech was a more than $200 billion shortfall in the last government’s budget for transport projects first raised by Nicola Willis in December. As the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan points out (paywalled), $200b is a breathtaking amount, worth about half of New Zealand’s entire GDP. Luxon’s predecessor Chris Hipkins says the figure is “absolute nonsense”. Coughlan has run the numbers and finds – surprise! – both sides are fudging the facts.
Claims and counter-claims over mooted state home sales
In another swipe at Labour, Luxon said Kāinga Ora was considering selling over 10,000 state homes to address its rising debt. Treasury advice received in December said the agency would raise $6 billion from the sale, but Labour says it never saw the proposal, let alone signed off on it, according to the Sunday Star-Times’ Andrea Vance. It seems very unlikely any sale will take place, given there are currently more than 25,000 people on the state housing waiting list, an increase of almost 10% in a year. As Max Rashbrooke notes in his Spinoff analysis of state housing stock under both National and Labour governments, in 2022 Chris Bishop said National would “build enough state and social housing” to clear the waiting list entirely – a promise that’s looking bolder than ever as the waitlist continues to rise.
Did Luxon get out of ‘Prime Manager” mode?
On Saturday, the Herald’s Claire Trevett (paywalled) wrote that if Luxon again focused on what he sees as Labour’s failings, the State of the Nation “risks being a disappointment” – not ideal for a leader recently criticised for underwhelming speeches at Rātana and Waitangi. Still, given National’s improving poll numbers, he won’t be overly worried about the response to yesterday’s speech. Luxon himself has not enjoyed an “instant Key-esque surge in popularity – but he has nudged up,” Trevett writes. “National will be quietly hoping that indicates he is an acquired taste and voters start to tick over.” To help make that happen, he needs to put aside his “Prime Manager” persona and start being an assertive Prime Minister, she says. In The Post, Vance says yesterday’s address was a step in the right direction. “Sunday’s speech was good. Better still… he sounded like a normal person.”
Hipkins defends low-key approach to Opposition
As for Luxon’s Opposition counterpart, Trevett thinks Chris Hipkins has been playing his hand smartly, “holding his nerve” and staying low-key “to capitalise on the mistakes that are inevitable in a new government”. Tova O’Brien strongly disagrees. “Labour, where the bloody hell are ya?” she exasperatedly asked on Friday, observing that the party had only sent out eight press releases all year. In the same period in 2023, National had sent out 33. None of Labour’s eight were from Hipkins. “Democracies function best when their component parts are strong and right now, Labour is missing in action,” O’Brien writes. Asked to comment on Q&A yesterday, Hipkins said he didn’t measure success by the number of releases sent out, and had no intention of “barking at every passing car”. “When I have something to say, I will say it."
Massive expansion of speed camera network planned
There will be over five times as many speed cameras on our roads and the number of tickets issued will triple under plans revealed by David Fisher in the Herald (paywalled). Waka Kotahi will also take over the management of traffic cameras from the police under the plans. The agency expects the changes would “save $1.5 billion and between 1563 and 2431 lives over 20 years”, Fisher writes. The changes wouldn’t happen right away: documents show Waka Kotahi is giving a 10 year time frame for the camera installation, and 2030 for the tripling of tickets, which would mean around 3 million infringement notices issued each year. Transport minister Simeon Brown is refusing to comment on the plans at this stage. The expanded camera network would likely have a strong artificial intelligence component and NZ Council for Civil Liberties chairman Thomas Beagle says the introduction of AI into law enforcement is a concern since it makes the criminal and legal process more opaque.
Tiefenbacher declared provisional winner in Wellington; vote counting continues
Businessman Karl Tiefenbacher’s lead in Pukehīnau/Lambton is down to 164 votes after being declared the provisional winner of the vacant Wellington City Council seat on Saturday. As of yesterday there were 588 special votes still to be counted, with the final result to be officially declared by Wednesday. Tiefenbacher, the owner of the Kaffee Eis chain of gelato stores, was running against Green candidate Geordie Rogers for the seat made vacant when councillor Tamatha Paul resigned to become a Green MP. With the council set to vote on a set of controversial recommendations for zoning restrictions in just a few weeks’ time, the seat has assumed outsized importance. Rogers is an advocate of greater urban density and more affordable housing, while Tiefenbacher sees himself as a right-leaning centrist and says he wants Council to focus on “managing infrastructure, restoring vibrancy to the city, and (importantly) spending our rates prudently”.
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The State of the Nation speech and the speech by the Finance Minister at the recent economists conference are a n attempt to set the framing for their long-planned austerity for the 'bottom feeders', moar corporate welfare for landlords, and income tax cuts for the well off.