Labour comes off the back foot with final law and order announcement
It's been a week for the government as it attended to its law and order Achilles heel. The landing finally got stuck yesterday.
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, July 20, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: $90m from government to help Fonterra decarbonise; food, rent and building costs making inflation sticky; the orcas are not fighting back against the rich on our behalf; but first, after a bungled first announcement, a lack of detail on the second, Labour’s approach to law and order finally crystallised yesterday
Image: (Tina Tiller/Getty)
New ram raid offence and Youth court escalation
As tempting as it is to draw on religious metaphors alluding to a trinity or a three-day time frame, let’s just say the government will be counting its blessings after a well-explained law and order announcement yesterday. Prime minister Chris Hipkins has fronted all three announcements this week and was joined by justice minister Kiri Allan yesterday. The government will introduce a new bill to create a specific ram raid offence that carries a maximum sentence of 10 years (the same as burglary) but more specifically it will amend the Oranga Tamariki Act so that a 12 or 13-year-old who commits a ram-raid and is charged with a ram-raid offence, can be escalated to the Youth Court. As Newsroom’s Jo Moir writes (paywalled), “Allan, who has faced significant pressure in recent weeks and took time away from parliament, was well versed in the policy and offered insights backed up with evidence and statistics on what was causing some of the worst behaviours amongst young people.”
Alignment with National and Act policy
The implications of the announcement will undoubtedly create a sense of discomfort and disappointment for some. It’s a bit further away from the more holistic, “transform the justice system” rhetoric of the government’s earlier days and might be considered to be closer to some of the law and order policies put up by National and Act. Being able to escalate offending to the Youth Court means young repeat offenders could be given ankle bracelets, put into youth justice facilities, or given restrictive bail conditions, such as curfews, said Allan. Act leader David Seymour noted that his party had said that you should be eligible to have an ankle bracelet from age 11 if you commit a ram raid and that “people said that was harsh at the time.” National introduced a policy in November last year to create a new Young Serious Offender (YSO) category for those aged 10 to 17 who had committed at least two serious offences including ram raids, armed burglary or serious assault.
‘It becomes hard to see past simply wanting this problem to end’
An editorial from the Herald (paywalled) this week about the dominance of ram raids within the current national discourse perhaps sums up the electoral necessity of moving away from talking about more nuanced solutions like addressing the causes of crime:
“This may just be a difficult and costly period the country can emerge from to a better state next year. But people get to a point where patience is limited for nuanced solutions, and those that are easy to grasp can appeal more. It becomes hard to see past simply wanting this problem to end.”
This week, new research from Dr Julia Ioane at Massey University revealed the key driver for youth offending among the subjects she interviewed was to get money for food. The resigned tonality of that Herald editorial won’t be particularly comforting for the many, like Ioane, who have worked tirelessly on more ‘whole of society’ approaches to addressing crime but I do wonder if that editorial speaks to something of a weariness and a national mood in this post-pandemic, cost-of-living crisis era.
‘A crackdown with a mild snap rather than a bang’
It’s fair to judge yesterday’s announcement and the timing of all law and order announcements from the government this week within the context of Labour wanting to win an election. Elements, however, were still characteristically Labour. The measures announced yesterday also included an intensive programme to break the cycle for up to 60 recidivist young offenders and an expansion of the successful “Circuit Breaker” fast-track intervention programme. As the Herald’s Claire Trevett writes (paywalled), yesterday’s announcement:
“Sets up a nuanced and staged approach to dealing with youth offenders, rather than putting all through the same processes – from those for whom a telling-off from the parents will set them right, to those who need to confront more consequences. It was delivered in a way in which Hipkins emphasised the first port of call would always be to try to get young people “back on the straight and narrow” rather than biffing them into custody.”
The hope for Hipkins she writes, is that it will be viewed as reasonable and effective, “a crackdown with a mild snap rather than a bang.”
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Government to give $90m to Fonterra to help it transition away from burning coal
The government is announcing today that it will give $90m to Fonterra, one of the country’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, to help reduce the use of coal in its dairy operations. Naturally, it will draw comparisons with the $140m given to NZ Steel in May. Interesting piece from Craig Hickman, an equity manager on a 1000-cow dairy farm in mid-Canterbury, about a recent announcement from Nestlé. The world’s largest food manufacturer has ditched its policy of buying carbon offsets to make certain brands “carbon neutral” and will concentrate on reducing its actual carbon output by focusing on its own emissions and that of its supply chain. Hickman writes that “Nestlé has joined a growing list of Fonterra customers who are very interested in the carbon footprint of New Zealand milk. Being a significant customer of Fonterra, this announcement could impact New Zealand dairy farmers in a more direct way than any policy currently being announced by political parties hoping to win my vote.”
Food, power and rent keeping inflation sticky
Dan Brunskill has a good read on yesterday’s inflation figures and the persistence of non-tradable (domestic) inflation. Inflation is coming down and the overall headline figure of 6% is getting close to December 2021 levels but domestic inflation was running at 6.6% above the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 6.3% and ANZ’s forecast 6.4%. Brad Olsen, Infometrics chief executive, said there was still an intensely hot core of inflation among everyday items such as food, energy, and rental costs that shape expectations. National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis responded to yesterday’s figures saying that while global inflation was “coming off the boil”, New Zealand’s was still “piping hot”. There are some differences in the way data is collected across the countries which makes direct comparison tricky. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said (paywalled) “If the battle against inflation were a beauty contest, market participants would probably say New Zealand and the United States were winning - or at least not falling off the catwalk,” he said. Meanwhile, Bloomberg financial journalist Tracy Alloway has introduced the term “excuseflation” to the lexicon. Alloway says companies have had a lot of excuses to raise prices lately, and if they all do it at once, there is little reason for them to bring them down.
Hipkins scratches the switch
Chris Hipkins has dashed the hopes of some of his most senior colleagues and Labour progressives by burying the prospect of a wealth tax or new capital gains tax under his leadership. Is that a surprise, and what does it say about the state of the party and the campaign, wonder Ben Thomas, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Toby Manhire in the latest episode of Gone By Lunchtime. Also on the list in a busy patch of pre-campaign activity: Labour launch a slogan and a week of law and order policy; National growls at potholes and offers KiwiSaver solutions to rental bonds; the Greens pledge to return stolen Māori land; the Dawn Raids report that made the apology ring hollow; and the major parties on course for their worst combined result since 2002.
It’s no slogan launch but Gone By Lunchtime will be live at WORD Christchurch
Toby, Annabelle and Ben are heading south next month to work their magic in front of a live audience and you can be there. Tickets for the August 27 event are are on sale now.
Click and Collect
The Herald’s Alex Spence with an in-depth profile of the leader of the opposition, Christopher Luxon (paywalled)
For the first time in nearly four decades, a group of kākāpō will live on the mainland
Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese to make his first official visit to NZ next week
Nurses to strike again if new offer from Te Whatu Ora is rejected
Inside the push to greenwash the COP28 climate summit which will be held in the United Arab Emirates later this year
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Sporting Snippets
The Fifa World Cup begins today with an opening match between the Football Ferns and Norway in Auckland in front of what is set to be a 43,000-strong crowd. Will the Kelly Tarlton's penguins be right in their pick of the winner?
The front page of The Press this morning gets to the point on the reaction to Phil Mauger’s suggestion that Christchurch host the 2026 Games
‘Orcas are attacking boats. But to say they’re ‘fighting back’ is all too human’
Good piece from Elle Hunt about the rise of the “orcas fighting back” meme in the wake of orca attacks on boats.
“In its cheery nihilism, the “orca rising” meme harks back to the “nature is healing” meme from early in the pandemic, when signs of wildlife returning to city streets emptied by lockdowns were hailed – first earnestly, then ironically – as evidence that “we are the virus” harming the world. This persistent idea that Mother Nature herself might rise up to reject and even undo the damage done by humans appeals because it alleviates our sense of responsibility, and assuages our fears that it’s too late.”
