Jacinda Ardern draws a line under her political career and an era

Ardern will deliver her valedictory speech tonight after announcing she has new roles to step into and ruling out ever returning to politics in this country

Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, April 5, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: OCR hike expected today with one economist calling for the hike cycle to end there; Defence Force to spend $60m to stop people leaving; Donald Trump pleads not guilty to all 34 charges at his arraignment hearing; but first, Ardern’s final interviews and what comes next

Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern (Image design: Toby Morris)

Ardern bows out of politics in New Zealand for good

Farewell tours are funny things really. In the music world, artists often announce it’s their last gig and then return, two years later. Elton John hinted at leaving behind a life of touring in 1977 and we know how that (never) ended. Unlike Elton, you get the sense that former prime minister Jacinda Ardern really does mean it when as she says good-bye to the political brick road in New Zealand, confirming to Newshub that this was the end. Extended versions of the Newshub and 1News interviews with Ardern are able to be watched here. Before I get into what comes next for Ardern, in the spirit of duty that rang true in Ardern’s interviews, I am recommending you read Alex Casey and Tara Ward’s review of them. You don’t need to have watched them to enjoy.

A ‘very complicated relationship with media’ to the end

The choice was made not to speak to a single press gallery reporter as part of Ardern’s exit. It was hers to make and perhaps wisely and dutifully, she seems doggedly determined to avoid entering into the present-day news cycle beyond the usual farewell fare (she still landed the front page of the Herald this morning). I also think it’s fair to note, as the NZ Herald’s Claire Trevett has done, that her approach to media is markedly different to John Key’s when he left office, and that for the press gallery that chronicled her time as prime minister during a fairly extraordinary era, Ardern “did not even have a few words in passing to acknowledge the moment on Monday.” It is emblematic of what Duncan Greive described as Ardern’s “very complicated relationship with the media”.

Don’t expect Ardern to pop up with advice for current or future prime ministers 

As Stuff’s Luke Malpass notes in an assessment of her legacy, it is highly unlikely that Ardern “will suffer from relevance deprivation syndrome or will pop up in media giving gratuitous advice or criticism to Hipkins or Luxon if he becomes prime minister in October.” She has no interest in becoming the face of misogynistic abuse or threats hurled at women online and while she acknowledged in her interview with John Campbell on 1News that there is “a small group who hold some very extreme feelings” about her, she always “felt well cared for.”

Taking some of the heat out of politics

Ardern said that while it wasn’t the main reason for her resignation, she did think her “departure might bring the tempo, the heat, the friction that had come into politics, that it might take it down a peg and, if it did, that would be good for New Zealand.” It might be specious editorialising to draw this conclusion from Ardern’s well-crafted words, but you wonder if Ardern had a sense of needing an act of symbolism to draw a line under the 2020-2022 Covid era before the rest of us did, and that while she “had nothing left in the tank”, her resignation, much like her acceptance of the Labour party leadership in 2017, was ultimately an act of duty. Ardern will deliver her valedictory speech in parliament around 5.30pm tonight and will then cast off into the future in a special envoy role for the Christchurch Call and join the board of Prince William’s Earthshot trust.

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OCR set for another hike but cycle could be coming to an end

It is expected that the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points today, taking it to 5% but the possibility that it could increase it by 50 basis points, or pause its hikes altogether, remains. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr says 5% is more than enough and that the bank could not keep “blindly lifting interest rates.” “Something will break and it will become a much deeper recession,” he said. As interest.co.nz’s Dan Brunskill writes the results of the latest NZIER survey of business opinion will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank in the fight against inflation. The upshot of the survey was that labour market concerns had begun to diminish as more workers were entering the country and demand for products had eased. 

Defence Force to spend $60m to stop people leaving

As Stuff’s Thomas Manch reports, the Defence Force will spend $60m in one-off payments to stop people leaving. The Defence Force has lost 30% of uniformed staff in two years. Chief of Defence Air Marshal​ Kevin Short said he personally hasn’t “seen numbers as high as this in my time as a senior officer, and that means, in the last 20 years.” ​Manch writes that each defence staffer will receive a $3661 payment in May. “The payments are on top of $10,000 provided to ‘strategically significant’ uniformed staff, approved by the government in December at a cost of $10m, and on top of the $90m for a three-year wage boost approved in the 2022 Budget.”

Watch: How can music be an exploration of one's cultural identity?

Māori-Jewish multidisciplinary musician Ana Chaya Scotney performs under the moniker Kōtiro, an affectionate nickname given to her by her late dad, meaning daughter in te reo Māori. In 2021, Scotney released her debut EP High-Def Multinational, synthesising the lonesome sounds heard within Te Urewera. That magical ngahere is the turangawaewae of Scotney's dad's people, Tūhoe. But via her mum, Scotney is also a member of the Jewish diaspora. These seemingly disparate identities meld together in her music, which she sees as a conduit for exploring her beautifully diverse whakapapa. Scotney's art is both an invocation of the stillness of Te Urewera and a self-exploratory outlet to dive into her complicated cultural identity. Watch Scotney's kōrero in the first episode of Amplified, out now. Made with support from NZ On Air.

Donald Trump pleads not guilty

As was the case with covering stormy weather happening outside my window in real-time, it is somewhat tricky to give you the latest on Donald Trump’s arraignment hearing and arrest because it happening as I type. The New York Times reports that Trump stayed silent as he entered a Manhattan courtroom for his arraignment and did not deliver remarks or answer questions from a reporter. The arraignment was unsealed and Trump plead not guilty to all 34 charges relating to his role in the payment of hush money to a porn star days before the 2016 presidential election. David Leonhardt, editor of The Morning, notes that these indictments may not even present the biggest legal threat to Trump with federal and state investigations underway into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Click and collect

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• Te Whatu Ora re-publishes wait-list data: the number of patients waiting more than a year for surgery has nearly tripled since December 2021

• TVNZ’s chief executive Simon Power resigns

• National party leader Christopher Luxon says he wasn’t aware of comments made by the party’s Maungakiekie candidate that compared same sex civil unions to incest and polygamy

• Massey University rolls out webcam-monitored exams

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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Right now on The Spinoff

Madeleine Chapman ranks New Zealand's supermarket hot cross buns just in time for Easter. Toby Manhire assesses the speeches that best define Jacinda Ardern's time in politics. A mother of two living off the grid in the Hokianga opens the books for the first in a new series about the cost of living. Stewart Sowman-Lund bemoans how domestic travel is even more cooked that normal right now. Graeme Edgeler writes that last week's Nash saga proves our OIA needs teeth.

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It turns out even the happiest people in the world aren’t that happy

A lot of Finland news about. The country has just joined NATO and centre-left leader Sanna Marin was defeated in Sunday’s election. Finland has also just been ranked as the happiest country on earth for the sixth year in a row. Penelope Colston spoke to Finnish citizens aged between 13 to 88 for the New York Times to unlock their secret and it turns out they’re actually not that happy at all. Incredible photographs and an elucidating read on the thing so many of us are chasing.