How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird flu

And why there is growing concern around the world.

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, May 8.

In today’s edition: Julie Anne Genter has spoken out and on the same day it was confirmed she’s been referred to the privileges committee, the faces of Three’s new Stuff bulletin have been confirmed, and the future of Auckland’s port has been revealed. But first, should we be worried about bird flu?

The takahē was chosen for an avian influenza vaccine trial (Image: Getty)

What’s all this?

When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So today we’re going to take a look at bird flu (or highly pathogenic avian influenza), the threat it could pose to New Zealand, and how we can be ready for its possible arrival. On The Detail this week, reporter Marc Daalder said bird flu – also known as H5N1 – looks to be the most likely illness “that could potentially become a pandemic or an epidemic among humans”. That’s because the latest mutation of the virus has made the jump to cows in the United States (and various other mammals elsewhere), and appears to be transferring directly between cattle without the involvement of an infected bird. That poses a possible threat to us, too. So far, there’s at least one case of a human contracting the disease after contact with cattle. All of this is rather unexpected, infectious diseases researcher Richard Webby told RNZ. "It's almost like the Crusaders losing five in a row. Had you asked me six weeks ago what the chance [was] of finding this virus in cows, I would have said none. So it's a completely new event for us.” While bird flu hasn’t reached our shores, Otago University professor Jemma Geoghegan explained in this Newsroom Q&A that Oceania is the last continent that’s yet to see a case. “Every time the virus gets into a mammal, it gives it an opportunity to evolve and get better at infecting mammals. This is something scientists… are closely monitoring,” she said.

Are we at risk?

According to Geoghegan, the risk of person-to-person transmission has increased because the virus is now spreading from cow to cow – and cows, like us, are mammals. But there is no evidence of this happening yet. This piece from The Conversation explains why the risk to humans – at this point – is low. But that doesn’t make the threat any less worrying, as Richard Rennie wrote in this opinion piece for Farmers Weekly. “Up until now bird flu has seemed a few steps removed from the human health risk,” he said. “But with it jumping to humanity’s main milk source, the risks not only to human health but to economic wellbeing are considerably sharper.” The most obvious sign of H5N1 is dead birds or wildlife, which people should avoid touching. As Crux reported, the Ministry of Primary Industries has been investigating the cause of death of 100 birds in Wānaka, ultimately ruling out avian flu. Nevertheless, it signals the heightened awareness of the disease, even if it hasn’t reached our shores. In the rare instances avian flu has made it to humans, the mortality rate is reported to be 50%. If it does arrive in New Zealand, Biosecurity NZ would lead a coordinated response with the Department of Conservation and the Ministry of Health.

What about our wildlife?

Clearly, given the name of this virus, our native wildlife is at even higher risk. “This highly contagious viral infection can affect all species of birds both wild and domestic,” notes DOC in an article about the disease. “It is likely to affect colony nesting birds such as red and black-billed gulls, gannets, terns and other seabirds.” DOC’s ecology technical adviser Bruce McKinlay told The Bulletin that vaccination could be an effective tool during an outbreak. Five native species have been selected for an avian influenza vaccination trial, due to their “critical conservation status and reliance on captive breeding for species survival”. These are the: kakī (black stilt), takahē, kākāpō, tūturuatu (shore plover), and red-crowned kākāriki (as a surrogate species for kākāriki karaka/orange-fronted parakeet). “The trial began in January and vaccinations have now been completed for all five species,” McKinlay said. “The birds are all in good health, and none have shown any adverse reactions to the vaccine.”

The lessons from Covid-19

It’s unsurprising, given it’s less than three years since our last pandemic lockdown, that comparisons between Covid-19 and bird flu are being made – there remains heightened awareness of any illness. In one piece, on Forbes, it’s noted that the decades-long knowledge of bird flu should mean we’re better prepared for a worst-case scenario. But also in the US, Politico has warned that hospitals may have failed to learn the lessons from the last pandemic. Otago University’s Jemma Geoghegan told The Bulletin we can learn a lot from Covid-19. “One is that we had to massively ramp up our workforce across all areas in a very short amount of time,” she said. While we cannot continue this level of capacity during the “inter-pandemic” period, she added, we risk losing specific skills if capabilities aren’t maintained. It was also important to maintain strong collaborative links between universities, Crown Research Institutes and government agencies as people from across different sectors bring unique expertise. “We established many of those collaborative links during Covid and they should be valued and maintained.” There’s also the issue of a human vaccine. The Herald’s Jamie Morton (paywalled) wrote that this would be easier than during the Covid pandemic, as most developed nations, New Zealand included, have stockpiled doses closely matched to avian flu.

While we’re here, some Covid news

Tony Blakely, chair of the Royal Commission into New Zealand’s pandemic response (which you can read more about here), provided an update on the inquiry yesterday afternoon. He made two points of note. Firstly, a clarification on the extent to which vaccine effectiveness forms a part of the inquiry. In short, he said it would be difficult to consider the use of mandates without also looking at vaccines overall. “The ethical case for – say – vaccine mandates is stronger if vaccines also stop transmission,” he wrote. Looking at the efficacy of the vaccine was a pledge inked into the coalition deal between National and NZ First, as this Newshub report from last year explained. Blakely also signalled that future public engagement could be in the pipeline if the government does opt to alter the terms of reference, as it has previously indicated it might. Before the weekend, the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reported that Pharmac and Health NZ were considering the future of vaccine accessibility and whether funding would continue – though no changes are imminent.

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Deal to lease Ports of Auckland ditched

The Ports of Auckland will be kept under council ownership, mayor Wayne Brown announced yesterday, confirming plans to lease the waterfront land had been ditched. It had previously been proposed to lease out operations at the port for 35 years. "By trade, I'm an engineer. I solve problems," the mayor said yesterday. Ports of Auckland will contribute $1.1b in profits to the council over the next 10 years, Newshub reported, which exceeds the projected net returns from investing the proceeds of a port lease by $172m. As RNZ noted, Brown also negotiated public access to parts of Bledisloe Wharf as a shared space for public use and cruises. Meanwhile, the Herald reported that former port boss Tony Gibson took the stand yesterday in his own defence at an “unprecedented trial” into a workplace death.

• Simeon Brown joined Wayne Brown (no relation) over the weekend to announce a new water scheme for the super city. We covered the substantive announcement in Monday’s Bulletin, but The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus has taken a closer look at Auckland’s new water deal.

An avalanche of political headlines

The continued importance of television journalism was showcased last night. On 1News, political editor Maiki Sherman tracked down embattled Green MP for the first time since her outburst in parliament last week. Since then, several more allegations of intimidating behaviour have emerged, while it was confirmed yesterday the MP had been referred to parliament’s (powerful) privileges committee. Genter reiterated her apology to National’s Matt Doocey, and extended that apology to others who have made public claims about her. "I accept that sometimes when dealing with people who are very upset, I haven't been able to stay calm and I need to know when to walk away.”

Meanwhile, over on Newshub, Jenna Lynch had details of the $57,000 spent to upgrade Christopher Luxon’s Beehive office (at the expense of the taxpayer), making comparisons to the last “$50,000 perception problem”.

Also worth noting:

• Newshub’s Amelia Wade reported that we’re today set to hear details of the updated lunch in schools programme, with suggestions it will change from hot to packed meals. More on the (current) programme can be found here.

• The government has started weekly reporting of school attendance data.

• The Spinoff’s Alice Neville breaks down six telling tidbits from the review of vote-counting errors at the 2023 election.

The Fold: Meta might turn off news in Australia. Here's how one publisher is responding

The Daily Aus co-founder Sam Koslowski joins Duncan for an in-depth conversation about the existential threat facing social-first media entities across the Tasman, and the portent it might hold for news media in Aotearoa.

Click and Collect

• An update on a story from yesterday: NZ First MP Jamie Arbuckle is giving away his council salary and confirms he’ll leave local politics in October to avoid a byelection. It came after PM Christopher Luxon told Newstalk ZB he wouldn’t let one of his own MPs double dip.

• There was a lot of media news floating around yesterday (much of it from the Herald’s all-powerful media insider Shayne Currie). Among the news: Ryan Bridge will take over Newstalk ZB’s Early Edition slot from July, a group of Newshub journalists will head to Stuff’s new TV bulletin, and outgoing Warner Bros boss Glen Kyne has taken a swipe at TVNZ (paywalled). 

• Carmel Sepuloni is reportedly heading to Celebrity Treasure Island, in a perfect hybrid of my two favourite things (politics and politicians on reality TV).

• Yesterday was the Met Gala, which means you can flick through all the outfits (or should they be called costumes?) at your leisure here – just don’t fall for the AI images.

• Job seeking at 82: The Waikato Times has an interesting interview with octogenarian Don McGovern, who’s finding it hard to find someone willing to offer him a job.

• Willie Jackson will become the first Māori MP to debate at Oxford University.

• The Spinoff is looking for a new staff writer – could it be you?

Right now on The Spinoff

The bill to regulate property managers was just scrapped. As Hera Lindsay Bird asks, what's the worst that could happen? Tara Ward reports that Australia loves New Zealand prestige show After The Party. Anna Rawhiti-Connell decides that Luxon and Mitchell weren't mixed up on Monday, they were just using girl maths. For The Cost of Being, a student saving for more tattoos discusses his spending.

Capital picks, with Joel MacManus

The Spinoff’s Wellington editor shares what he’s been reading this week.

• WCC wins legal fight to keep the Thorndon cycleway but the Brooklyn cycleway upgrade is on hold due to budget cuts (it will stay as a temporary project).

• Councils from across Wellington, Wairarapa and Horowhenua are making moves to combine their water services into one entity. 

• It's the final week for submissions on Wellington's Long Term Plan. A good guide to the proposal by Nick James from RNZ here.

That’s it for today, thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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