How the cyclone will alter our economic, social and political landscapes
Physical landscapes have been altered by the cyclone and it's now clear that it will alter the country's trajectory on big issues like climate change adaptation and infrastructure investment
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Friday, February 17, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: National MP to stand for selection in Māori seat; no decision yet on whether the census will be deferred; how Cyclone Gabrielle will forever change the housing industry, but first, how the cyclone will reroute the country’s focus this year
PM Chris Hipkins and deputy PM Carmel Sepuloni in Auckland earlier this week (Photo: Getty Images)
The cyclone will dominate our politics for some time
A large portion of the Waipawa river in Hawke’s Bay is now running down a river bed it hasn’t travelled in 120 years — the sheer force of Cyclone Gabrielle has rerouted it. It’s one example of a landscape transformed overnight. It also stands as a slightly tortured metaphor for the ways the cyclone will alter our economic, social and political landscapes. This morning, Toby Manhire outlines the ways the ongoing response to the cyclone, and “the critical questions that have been unearthed, intensified or expedited by the disaster” will dominate our politics for some time”. Infometrics now expects “a reluctant 50-point increase” to the official cash rate next week as the Reserve Bank factors in the effects of the cyclone.
“A very good look at infrastructure resilience”
The forecast electoral battle grounds of cost-of-living, health, education and law and order won’t melt away. They were a strong feature of a speech from Act party leader David Seymour’s speech last night but the cyclone will force a focus on issues many would argue have been ignored for too long. Yesterday prime minister Chris Hipkins said the government will be having a “very good look” at the resilience of all infrastructure in preparation for future disasters. Resilience is one thing, but “infrastructure” is a catch-all for some huge areas of work and this country already has what Treasury estimates to be a $210b infrastructure deficit. The flooded Redclyffe substation, responsible for much of Hawke's Bay’s power outage, was identified as critically at risk in 2020 (paywalled).
Climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation are required
There have been expressions of hope about the emergence of a bipartisan approach to climate change response. It is undoubtedly positive to have National party leader Christopher Luxon being so categoric about his inability to comprehend how anyone could be a climate change denier. In saying that, a few people including Manhire and Politik’s Richard Harman, have already noted that the term “adaptation” is dominating recent comments from politicians on climate change investment. There is an important difference between climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is clear that both are required. Whether a bipartisan approach plays out as support for climate change mitigation measures like agricultural emissions pricing, is yet to be seen.
The effects of chronic stress on an entire nation
Someone recently observed to me that all their mates in Melbourne talk about the impact lockdowns had on them and that people in Auckland don’t do that. To map that singular observation onto an entire country is extrapolation but as Stuff’s Bridie Witton writes, those impacted by the floods haven't had time to recover and recuperate from the stress of lockdowns, illness and other factors caused by the pandemic. Clinical psychologist Dougal Sutherland says that while chronic stress and its effects on a person are understood, the same can’t be said for its effects on an entire nation and that is what we are now dealing with.
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National MP wants to contest Māori seat
National MP Harete Hipango has announced she wants to contest the Māori seat of Te Tai Hauāuru at this year's election. She had already put her name forward for the Whanganui seat again, but in a statement yesterday, said she would withdraw from the process to pursue selection in Te Tai Hauāuru. The broad consensus is that it's unwinnable for Hipango but it’s still fairly significant given the National party has not run candidates in the Māori seats since 2005, and has advocated for their abolition. In January this year Christopher Luxon said the seats “don't make a lot of sense”. National’s potential coalition partner Act, have also previously said they want the seats abolished.
Will the census be deferred?
As Newsroom’s David Williams writes, Stats NZ’s dilemma about how best to undertake this year’s census (scheduled for March 7) has parallels with, and differences from the situation we were in after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The census was rescheduled to 2013 after the quakes. Statistics minister Deborah Russell confirmed yesterday that “No decisions about a deferral have been taken.” Williams writes, “which, of course, confirms a deferral is being considered.”
How Cyclone Gabrielle will forever change the housing industry
The effects of climate change are beginning to pool at the feet of New Zealand's coastal home owners. Climate Sigma managing director Belinda Storey says most beachfront properties will either need to be moved or demolished in the next 30 years. In the latest episode of When the Facts Change, Storey and Bernard discuss the morally hazardous world of climate finance, the future cost of repairing mega-mansions, and how the taxpayer can avoid footing the full bill.
Click and collect
The second firefighter involved in the Muriwai landslide has died
The Herald’s Claire Trevett with the inside story of Jacinda Ardern’s resignation (paywalled)
When Anne met Princess Anne
Experts agree the wine industry has been hit hard by the cyclone but exactly how hard remains to be seen
How did Cyclone Gabrielle compare with Cyclone Bola?
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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Chris Schulz asks why New Zealand’s cellphone network failed so fast in Cyclone Gabrielle – and what needs to change to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Shanti Mathias finds out what it will take to fix all those broken power lines. Sela Jane Hopgood speaks with Pasifika community members in Hawke’s Bay about the urgent need for help. Tara Ward talks to Guy Montgomery about the buzz of turning his bespoke comedy spelling bee into a TV show. And Toby Manhire collates Hosking and Hawkesby hot takes through the ages, from the big bang to Cyclone Gabrielle.
Sporting snippets
Black Caps struggle in first day of test against England
The Breakers will now have to play the JackJumpers a third time in NBL semi-final decider
England players contracted to the Rugby Football Union get new maternity policy including 26 weeks of leave on full pay
It’s Friday so…
There's been a lot of awful news this week and today's lead probably hasn't helped. There has also been a lot of triumph over terrible circumstances, incredible feats and real humanity which do provide hope. Here are just a few of many examples from this week:
I cheered watching this video of a herd of cows swimming to safety as a farmer called "Come on girls, come here" in the Hawke's Bay town of Waipawa
This from RNZ’s Tess Brunton on a woman being handed a toothbrush and toothpaste at an evacuation centre because she all wanted to do was brush her teeth
Editor of Hawke's Bay Times Chris Hyde account of arriving at an evacuation centre and the front page of today’s free edition of the Hawke’s Bay Times simply because it’s the first paper they’ve been able to get out since the cyclone hit
Ricky Wilson’s photos of kids helping clean up in Wairoa
I also just want to acknowledge that The Bulletin has been going out later than usual this week as new information lands each morning. I hope to resume normal transmission time next week, thanks for bearing with the situation.
I love Toby Manhire. Thanks for making me laugh in the middle of such chaos. I have the same opinion of Mr and Mrs Hosking so of course I found it immensely funny.