How long can Luxon ignore the Winston-shaped elephant in the room?
As NZ First racks up another five percent-plus poll result, the National leader is studiously avoiding the question on everybody's lips.
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Friday, August 11, by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: Commerce Commission confirms NZ banks are making outsized profits; Interislander issues could prove fatal, freight chief warns; Transpower says ongoing cold snap is putting a squeeze on power supplies. But first, new polls have confirmed problems for both major parties – though for very different reasons.
A string of bad polls for Labour – but also a ray of hope
As the campaigning period gets well and truly underway, the polls are starting to come in thick and fast. A new Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll confirms a steep slide in support for Labour, and suggests that a left bloc – Labour, Greens and te Pāti Māori – would get 52 seats, while National and Act would be on 61, just enough to form a government. For the first time this election cycle, Labour’s polling average over the last five established polls has dropped just below 30%. However this morning Stuff reports that Labour’s concerns have been allayed by its own internal party polling by Talbot Mills which has the party “about five percentage points higher” than the Curia poll, Not included in the Spinoff “polling snapshot” below is a new entry into the NZ polling field: the Guardian’s Essential Report New Zealand poll, released earlier this week. The Guardian’s poll closely reflects TPU/Curia, with the same seat totals for both the left and right blocs.
Luxon prevaricates as the Winston problem grows
Perhaps most notable in these recent polls is the remarkable comeback of NZ First, which attracted just 2.6% of the party vote in 2020. Now Winston Peters’ party is consistently scoring above 5%, with TPU/Curia giving them 5.8% – their best numbers yet, and a result that would usher them into parliament with seven seats. Who would fill those seats is still up in the air, as NZ First is yet to release its party list. Also holding back is National leader Chris Luxon, who still refuses to say whether he’d work with Winston Peters. His reticence can be explained by the razor-close projected margin, but on a recent episode of Gone by Lunchtime, co-host Ben Thomas argues there’d be more upside for Luxon to rule Peters out now. By leaving the door open to NZ First, “all you’re doing is cannibalising your own vote”, says Thomas. Peters’ flirtation with the “freedom movement” would make any National government he works with “a one-term fiasco”, writes Matthew Hooton in the NZ Herald (paywalled). “The one useful thing the supposedly principled Luxon might do is at least rule out dealing with this latest version of Peters, the most rhetorically extreme yet.”
Could Labour stage a comeback?
If the published polls are to be believed, things are looking increasingly tough for Labour. But, writing in the Guardian, Henry Cooke says Hipkins still has time to turn things around by pulling off “the campaign of his life”. Cooke thinks Labour could win through a combination of scare tactics over the possibility of the “most rightwing New Zealand government this century”; persuading voters that Labour is on its side over the cost of living; and a major revamp of Hipkins’ scandal-plagued cabinet. “If Hipkins managed such a turnaround he would be written into the history books as a political savant,” writes Cooke. “If he doesn’t he will end up a footnote, a pub quiz question in 20 years – and Labour could face a very long road back to power.” Hipkins will be hoping that his tax policy announcement this Sunday – widely expected to be the removal of GST from fruit and vegetables – heralds the start of a political comeback to rival Labour’s Ardern-led revival in 2017.
Yet another new party launches today
While Act, the Green Party and NZ First make a relatively strong showing, the other minor parties are flopping around in the shallow end of the polls. Their already meagre share of the vote is set to be further diluted by Alfred Ngaro’s new Christian party, which is set to launch today. Ngaro admits his as-yet-unnamed party has left it very late to make a run for parliament, but it’s “going to fire a rocket”, he says. Despite taking an opportunity to name-check British hard-right politician Nigel Farage, Ngaro tells Newstalk ZB’s Barry Soper he’s a centrist at heart, concerned less about left and right politics than “what’s right and what’s wrong”. The former National MP was ousted from parliament in 2020 after losing the Te Atatū electorate to Labour's Phil Twyford by more than 8000 votes.
Inside New Zealand’s cost of dying crisis
Rising inflation isn’t just hitting supermarkets and petrol stations, as concerns are raised about the threat of ‘funeral poverty’.
In partnership with AA Life Insurance, Death Week on The Spinoff is tackling the taboo. Read more about the cost of dying here.
Big NZ banks making larger profits than those overseas, ComCom finds
The Commerce Commission has released its preliminary issues paper for its investigation into the banking sector, laying out some initial findings and matters it believes warrant further inquiry. The commission confirms that the big banks are making far larger profits than their smaller rivals, and also more than comparable banks overseas. “The commission said the Reserve Bank did not find that earnings were more volatile here, which could have been an explanation for needing higher profits,” Stuff’s Susan Edmunds reports. The issues paper also notes that major banks can’t accurately be described as enjoying “windfall” profits – a term that has recently been bandied about in relation to potential new taxes – since they have had “persistently elevated” levels of profitability for some time. The commission will also investigate the lack of innovation in the banking sector, and whether banks make it too hard to switch.
Interislander issues could prove fatal, freight chief warns
The Interislander ferry was struck by yet another engineering breakdown on Wednesday night, RNZ’s Krystal Gibbens reports. The Kaitaki returned to Wellington harbour and spent the night at anchor after a problem emerged on the way to Picton. KiwiRail, which owns the Interislander, said only a “small number” of passengers were onboard, mostly commercial drivers, and all were offered a cabin for the night. Transporting New Zealand’s Dom Kalasih tells Gibbens the ongoing delays were becoming untenable for freight companies, and warns that the situation could be fatal if a ferry loses steering, “particularly in a high-risk area like Wellington Heads”, and sinks as a result. KiwiRail has apologised to passengers for the situation on Wednesday night.
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Click and Collect
Pak ‘n’ Save’s AI meal planner goes haywire, instructs Twitter user on how to make chlorine gas.
Transpower says power supplies are tight as the cold snap moves north across the country.
Wildfires on Maui that killed at least 36 people have also devastated Lahaina, Hawaii’s historic former capital.
The first-ever standalone Burger Wellington – formerly a popular part of Wellington on a Plate – begins its 17-day run today (The Post, paywalled).
Wild pigs – potentially numbering 30-50, but probably fewer – are “terrorising” Karori golf course (The Post, paywalled).
A strip of derelict quake-affected buildings off Christchurch’s Cathedral Square will finally be torn down next month (The Press, paywalled).
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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For Death Week, Gabi Lardies joins a monthly chat about mortality – and how to make the most of life – at an Auckland cafe. Duncan Greive talks to Shayne Currie about his transition from NZ Herald editor to writer of a splashy media-gossip column. Sela Jane Hopgood shares a guide on what to wear to a Pacific Island funeral. Dr Kees Lodder explains what’s involved in evaluating assisted dying requests. Books editor Claire Mabey muses on the winners of the children's books awards. Stewart Sowman-Lund tastes the Cher-branded flavours at Auckland gelato institution Giapo.
Sporting Snippets
Michael Hooper and Quade Cooper have both been dropped from the Wallabies squad for the Rugby World Cup.
Fifa has handed down a two-game ban to England’s Lauren James for stomping Nigeria’s Michelle Alozie.
Star coach Jamie Joseph is returning to the Highlanders as head of rugby after he exits his role as coach of Japan’s national rugby side.
