Foreign minister speech tipped to shed light on Aukus involvement

Winston Peters has been keen to dismiss speculation on our involvement in Aukus but will give a speech tonight on the direction of our foreign policy

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, May 1.

In today’s edition: MPs get pay rise, everyone cheers; government open to ‘sensible changes’ on fast track approvals bill; more polls; a new editor for The Bulletin; but first, foreign minister Winston Peters will give a major speech on foreign policy tonight

Speech tipped to layout position on Aukus

Foreign minister Winston Peters will give a speech tonight that’s being tipped as laying out the government’s current position on Aukus. More specifically, whether or not New Zealand should join the non-nuclear technology-sharing aspects of Aukus, also known as Pillar II of the defence pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Aukus explainer here. Speaking to Newstalk’s Heather du Plessis-Allan, the Herald’s Fran O’Sullivan indicates Aukus will be covered and also says questions about Aukus may have been included in the recent 1New Verian poll (results yet to be released). The Herald’s Audrey Young also indicates (paywalled) that the speech will set out New Zealand’s position on Aukus. Young has also said (paywalled) that the statement put out after Peters’ meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken earlier this month suggests “New Zealand is in the middle of a seismic foreign policy shift.” New Zealand and the US “see powerful reasons for New Zealand engaging practically” with Aukus, the statement read.

Joining Aukus a ‘fait accompli’ — international affairs expert

The Post’s Thomas Manch has a very good rundown on what our involvement might look like, what we might gain and the ongoing uncertainty about when or how New Zealand might be involved. Aukus partners have already indicated Japan would be the next likely country to join, although no timeline has been given on that. Manch suggests Peters’ recent meetings with Blinken and Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell (often described as the architect of Asia-Pacific policy for the US) mean he will have more to say about Aukus than he has in the past. Waikato University’s Alexander Gillespie told Manch that he thinks New Zealand joining Aukus is a fait accompli.

Aukus discussions: a timeline

As AUT’s Marco de Jong details, public discussions about New Zealand’s involvement in Aukus surfaced in March last year. However, documents obtained under the Official Information Act reveal conversations were happening here as early as September 2021. In March 2023, defence minister at the time, Andrew Little said the government was “willing to explore” joining the agreement. Chris Hipkins visited Australia in April 2023, where it’s said discussions about Aukus took place with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese. Labour has since walked back its exploratory position on Aukus, leading to some concern about the breakdown of a non-partisan approach to foreign policy. The party hosted an Aukus conference last week where former prime minister Helen Clark, a vocal critic of joining Aukus on the basis that it signals an “undemocratic shift” in our independent foreign policy, attended along with Tuvalu’s former prime minister, Enele Sopoaga and former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr.

Pillar II no more than ‘fragrant, methane-wrapped bullshit’ - former Australian foreign minister

Helen Clark says Aukus is an agreement clearly aimed at China, our major trading partner. “China is a major power in our region. The US is a major power in our region. Our job, if we are maintaining an independent foreign policy, is to navigate both relationships and not act in ways which support polarisation and support a view that one side is driving tensions,” she says. Former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr described Pillar II as ‘fragrant, methane-wrapped bullshit’. The Aukus debate has raised questions about exactly what an independent foreign policy is. As the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan wrote (paywalled) after attending a diplomatic hui last November, “Nearly all countries have an independent foreign policy to a greater or lesser extent and it’s not always clear what there is about New Zealand’s foreign policy that would allow us to lay claim to being significantly more independent than anyone else.”

Toby, Ben and Annabelle also discussed the Aukus debate in the last episode of Gone by Lunchtime.

How you can stay informed the year the world votes

Two billion voters are set to go to the polls in 64 countries this year. One of the perks of being a Spinoff member is receiving The World Bulletin, a weekly newsletter rounding up global news. Edited by Catherine McGregor, it’s sent to members every Thursday. Becoming a member means you’ll not only help sustain local journalism but stay on top of consequential world news, see less advertising, comment on the Spinoff and more. Join today.

MPs to get pay rise

I covered some of the arguments for and against this earlier this month, but the Remuneration Authority published its review of MPs’ salaries yesterday. The 54-page review grants backbench MPs a pay increase of a total of 10.5% over the next three years. Prime minister Christopher Luxon’s pay was set to rise by $50,000 over the same time (and will for future PMs), but Luxon has learned his lesson after his accommodation allowance debacle and said he will donate his salary increase to charity. The bills he’s got to pay will have to come out of his current salary of $471,000. The leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins, will receive a smaller increase, recognising the greater role of small parties in opposition under MMP. More details here. The Authority is an independent body, and the “greenfields” review was the first in 20 years. MPs haven’t had a pay rise since 2017, and legislation would have to be passed to overrule the Authority. Some would argue doing so would just kick the can down the road. However, as anyone not under a rock has observed, the rise won’t be popular, happening as it is against a backdrop of continued cost of living pressures, job losses, and, after today’s labour market data, probably rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth.

• The Post’s Kelly Dennett asks whether now is the right time for MPs to get a pay rise

• The Herald’s Claire Trevett writes (paywalled) that Luxon now faces “his first trial by pay rise”

Bowing out today, before the new remuneration changes kick in, is James Shaw. He will give his valedictory speech today. He will be replaced in the Green caucus by Francisco Hernandez. Stewart Sowman-Lund walks us through his political career on The Spinoff this morning, recalling the highs, lows, and the beard that took out the top spot in the great celebrity summer beard ranking of 2017-18.

Government taking ‘good look’ at fast track approval powers after watchdogs raise concerns

Minister for a lot including infrastructure and RMA reform, Chris Bishop, has said the government is open to “constructive changes” on the fast track approvals bill, reports the Herald’s Claire Trevett. The bill is currently before select committee. Both the Auditor General and the Commissioner for The Environment raised concerns about conflict of interest and the concentration of power with ministers. The Commissioner said the role of ministers as decision-makers should be scrapped. In yesterday’s episode of The Detail about the bill, political scientist Richard Shaw argues that ministers are professional politicians, but they are amateurs when it comes to their portfolios, and they need the expert advice and guidance of officials. Bishop noted the concerns of both watchdogs in his comments. It’s pretty early on in the submission process, so we’ll see where they land, however Trevett reports that Bishop said that no major changes were likely and he would not budge on the one-stop shop idea, to make it easier to get major projects over the line.

Catch up on the day with The Spinoff Daily

Click and Collect

• Polls be polling: internal polling for Labour by Talbot Mills suggests Labour could take back power, while polling from Roy Morgan gives the coalition a decent lead over the opposition parties. Some of the demographic splits on the Roy Morgan poll are quite profound. Side note for those who may ask why New Zealand media tends not to report on Roy Morgan polls: they’re not signed up to the New Zealand Political Polling Code.

• Prime minister walks back yesterday’s assertion that all programmes in the Budget would be fully funded for four years.

• New analysis suggests returning the GST charged on rates to local councils would cost the government at least $1.1b

• Commerce Commission analysis shows unstaffed petrol stations are, on average, six cents per litre cheaper than those with staff.

• Add “weigh chicken” to your neverending task list after further reports of customers finding a discrepancy between the weight on the packet and the weight of the raw meat. Life, it’s relentless.

• Something to watch for today: The Reserve Bank will release its financial stability report at 9am, which may outline more detail on the easing of loan-to-value ratio rules and caps on debt-to-income ratios.

  Feeling clever? Click here to play 1Q, Aotearoa’s newest, shortest daily quiz.

Right now on The Spinoff

Joel MacManus was at parliament for the formal commemoration of Efeso Collins yesterday and politely but firmly suggests Collins deserved better. Hera Lindsay Bird has a handy primer for arts spokespeople who know nothing about New Zealand art. Joel MacManus argues Monday’s poll shows the limits of trying to govern as an opposition. I share my thoughts on a crappy form of protest taking place in Auckland. Friends, colleagues, and students of Vincent O’Sullivan remember his extraordinary contributions. For The Cost of Being, a “semi-unemployed” house sitter with dwindling savings describes her expenses.

News from the editor

Catherine and I finish up on The Bulletin this week. Catherine will write her last tomorrow, and I will sign off on Friday after just over two years as editor 🥲. I am delighted to let you know that Stewart Sowman-Lund has been appointed as the new editor of The Bulletin. Sowman-Lund was live updates editor at The Spinoff for three years and has been reporting on politics, consumer news, business and pop culture for us since 2020. He wrote one of this year’s most deeply read features, the investigation into what happened at Auckland restaurant Cotto, and takes the reins next Monday. Returning to one of my worst/best typos from a sentence described by a subscriber as “deathless prose” (respect, we’re good), Godpeed Stewart.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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