Few bright spots in a largely dismal poll for Labour
Hipkins' popularity remains high, but that's about the only good news for his party from last night's Newshub/Reid Research opinion poll.
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, August 3, by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: Oranga Tamariki Action Plan has a good first year, says minister; Stokes Valley motorists driven to tears by hour-long waits; mayor proposes open-air pool for Auckland waterfront. But first, with National in poll position, is it time for Luxon to deal with his Winston Peters-shaped problem?
A dismal poll for Labour – but it could have been worse
You’ve got to feel sorry for Chris Hipkins. After an exhausting few weeks spent fighting fires set by his cabinet colleagues – and doing a pretty good job of it, according to most onlookers – he’s been rewarded with a 3.6 point drop in support for his party. Last night’s Newshub/Reid Research poll has Labour on 32.3%; the last poll published in mid-May had them on 35.9%. Of course, the recent run of scandals is why support is dropping in the first place – and The Post’s Luke Malpass (paywalled) says Labour party strategists are “quietly pleased – and amazed” that the damage hasn’t been worse. While the Greens’ support has nudged up slightly, when voting intentions are translated into seats the left bloc is still well short of the 61 seats needed to win, even with the help of Te Pāti Māori and their potential three seats. Meanwhile, both National and Act are up 1.3 points and together are on track to win 63 seats – putting them into government without the help of a third party.
What to do about Winston Peters?
Those numbers, though undeniably good for National, still aren’t decisive enough to do away with the Winston question. Toby Manhire wrote recently on The Spinoff that Christopher Luxon “seems stuck, banking on NZ First magically vanishing”, but the return of Winston Peters is becoming increasingly likely – and with it the inevitable question of a governing relationship with National. NZ First’s courting of the self-styled “freedom” movement seems to be paying dividends, with last night’s poll showing the party up 1.1 points to 4.1%, edging closer to the 5% threshold that would have Peters back roaming the halls of parliament. Manhire thinks Luxon should rule out NZ First now. It makes sense for many reasons, Manhire says, including that corralling the coalition partners would be a nightmare. “Just about the only thing Winston Peters and David Seymour agree on is how much they loathe one another.” Just this morning, Seymour tells Tova O’Brien he is categorically ruling out working with Peters, likely forcing Luxon’s hand on issuing a statement.
Hipkins still outpacing Luxon on popularity
A bright spot for Hipkins in the poll is that he remains a lot more personally popular than Luxon. Their 8 point gap in the preferred prime minister question grows to more than 16 points on trust: 51.5% said they trusted Hipkins, and 34.9% said they didn’t; whereas 35% said they trusted Luxon, and 46.9% said they didn’t. The polling period began two days after Kiri Allan’s car crash and Hipkins did well with respondents on his handling of the aftermath too. Yet, as Jo Moir notes in Newsroom, “voters don’t have to love Luxon – if they simply want a change from the status quo they’ll vote for National and Act to be rid of Labour”. Hipkins’ “biggest problem”, Moir adds, “is that he’s one of the few good things going for Labour at the moment”.
Is Nicola Willis Luxon’s secret weapon?
While Luxon’s feeble personal standing with voters may not ultimately cost him the election, it’s certainly better to be liked than not. Having a young-ish, socially liberal woman as his deputy is helping in that regard, but Nicola Willis doesn’t believe she’s in the role to make Luxon more palatable to the wider public, she tells Sowman-Lund this morning on The Spinoff. Instead, she says, the two complement each other well, showing that National “contains within our tent a range of views” on issues such as abortion, “and that we are able to represent them”.
‘It reels you in’: stories of methamphetamine use in Aotearoa
New Zealand's methamphetamine use per capita is one of the highest in the world. The Spinoff spoke to three people whose lives have been impacted by using meth, about how the drug infiltrated their lives. Read the full piece, in partnership with The Level, on The Spinoff now.
Oranga Tamariki Action Plan is working, says government
A year on from the launch of a plan to get agencies working together to protect vulnerable children, minister for children Kelvin Davis says it’s starting to get “real traction”. The Oranga Tamariki Action Plan (OTAP) was developed in the wake of the murder of Malachi Subecz, “a 5-year-old whose daycare had noted signs of abuse and who was known to Oranga Tamariki as being vulnerable”, writes Jody O’Callaghan for Stuff, and is designed to plug holes in cross-agency care for children like Malachi. But advocacy group Voyce – Whakarongo Mai believes not enough is being done, and has launched its 6 Promises for 6000 (children in care) campaign and petition to focus on the needs of children in care this election.
Hutt Valley traffic standstill driving drivers to tears
Te Atatū Peninsula has a new rival for the title of New Zealand’s worst suburban traffic jam. Residents of Stokes Valley in the Hutt are now spending nearly an hour in traffic to leave the suburb each morning, reports Melissa Nightingale for the NZ Herald, “with council warning this is the new normal for at least eight months”. The queues are due to remedial slip work which has closed one of the two southbound lanes the Eastern Hutt Road between Stokes Valley and Taita. “There has got to be a better way,” said one driver, who admitted she burst into tears in her car this morning while waiting in heavy traffic.
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Click and Collect
An open-air seawater pool and a concert venue are among Wayne Brown’s plans for Auckland waterfront, reports Simon Wilson in the Herald (paywalled).
Eye drops that temporarily remove the need for reading glasses could be available in NZ soon.
Air NZ is looking for volunteer regional airports to trial lower-emission planes.
Grey Lynn Gin has gone bottoms up (paywalled)
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.
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