Drilling into Labour's free dental promise

It's hard not to smile about free dental care but dentists say there could be holes in the costings. Meanwhile, China is watching as more questions surface about National's foreign buyer tax

Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, September 5, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: quarter of a billion dollars wiped off SkyCity’s market value; an eye for an eye, an attack ad for an attack ad; Gore District Council chief executive resigns but first; the questions being raised about costing and staffing Labour’s dental policy

Image: Toby Morris

The high cost of bad teeth

If today’s feature image looks familiar to Side Eye fans, it’s because it’s from Toby Morris’ March 2020 edition investigating the high cost of bad teeth. There wouldn't be many people who’d argue against improving access to dental care. The insistence on treating teeth as decorative face jewels, rather than a fairly important part of the body has long been a healthcare anomaly. North and South counted the reasons why in 2021. Despite that, it’s been considered too expensive to offer universally. Dame Jacinda Ardern said as much as recently as January this year. The Green party has a universal free dental care policy, which would be paid for by making changes to the tax system. The party estimated the policy would cost $1.41b in the first year, rising to $1.71b in the 2025 and 2026.

Costings too low?

Labour isn’t offering free dental care for all yet, instead announcing free dental care for all under 30s by 2026 at its campaign launch on Saturday. The Dental Association has raised issues with Labour’s costings, saying the budgeted $380m is too low and dentists would be stretched to roll it out. Hipkins says he’s comfortable with the policy’s costings, which are based on costings associated with the current funding of dental care for those aged 13-18 and adjusted for inflation. Dr Robin Whyman at the Dental Association says “Providing dental care to young adults is a different level of service than providing to the young teenage years and that will be part of the challenge of rolling the plan out dental care needs for those over 18.” The “Tooth be told” report last year from the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists said that cost benefit analysis showed that every dollar invested in dental care would return $1.60 to the country.

Staffing the plan relies on immigration green list

Labour’s plans include increasing the dental workforce by increasing the number of places in the Bachelor of Dental Surgery course by 50%. As Anna Whyte reports for The Post this morning, the University of Otago’s dean of dentistry, Paul Cooper said the staged increase over two years to 90 students was “an achievable and sensible model of implementation’ and “would be a significant investment in the country’s dental health workforce.” Newsroom’s Jo Moir notes that ​​the additional trainees won’t start study until March 2025 and won’t be qualified until at least 2030. Health minister Ayesha Verrall told Newsroom the fast-track green list for immigration will need to be relied on and as many as 200 dentists recruited from abroad. Dentists were added to the green list in April this year. 

Does anyone care what election promises cost?

As of yesterday, National’s tax policy was still under scrutiny with specific focus on whether the proposed “foreign buyer tax” would breach tax treaties. It now seems mired in the intricacies of tax law. interest.co.nz’s Dan Brunskill has one tax expert saying the party would be able to charge foreign buyers a 15% fee without breaching New Zealand's free trade agreements — as long as they don’t call it a tax. Newshub reports China is watching, with the Chinese ambassador saying “We are studying the specific details and implications” and “hope the final legislation... is consistent with the agreements signed between China and New Zealand”. With the carrots dangled and a now ubiquitous volley of “costings, costings, costings” in play, BusinessDesk’s Jem Traylen asks whether anyone cares how much election promises really cost (paywalled). NZ Initiative’s Eric Crampton believes “politicians have worked out that New Zealand voters don’t care about the robustness of claims about how much election promises cost and are swayed by other considerations instead.” Max Rashbrooke argues recent examples “illustrated perfectly the need for an independent budget office that could provide a costing service.” An attempt to get an independent budget office up and running which could cost policy was quashed by Simon Bridges in 2019. Play on, I guess.

Introducing two new collections of Māori writing

From colonisation to identity, from creativity to mātauranga Māori, two powerful new anthologies see some of our finest Māori writers challenge, stimulate and intrigue. Te Awa o Kupu is a stunning collection of poetry and stories, and Ngā Kupu Wero focuses on essays and creative non-fiction. Each powerful in its own right, together these vibrant collections create a chorus of irrepressible voices showing us who and what we are.

Join the kōrero today, with Penguin (sponsored)

Quarter of a billion dollars wiped off SkyCity’s market value

When markets closed last night, the casino company’s share price was at $2.02, a low not seen since the early days of lockdown. News broke yesterday morning that the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) had applied to temporarily suspend SkyCity’s gambling license after a complaint from a former customer.  The complaint alleges the company did not comply with requirements to detect incidences of continuous play by the customer and recommended cancelling its licence “for 10 days or so”. Forsyth Barr’s head of research Andy Bowley believed the financial impact of that would be minimal but noted there was a question mark over “what else is out there, that the DIA could be investigating.” SkyCity's Adelaide casino is under scrutiny for alleged breaches of anti-money laundering rules. Separately, as Newshub reported last night, another customer is alleging she gambled for periods of up to 18 hours straight without intervention from staff. The Herald’s Anne Gibson reports (paywalled) on reactions from analysts, including one who noted yesterday marked the start of Gambling Harm Awareness Week. The Problem Gambling Foundation welcomed the DIA’s move and is recommending that the current number of allowed hours of continuous play be reviewed.

An eye for an eye, an attack ad for an attack ad

Chris Bishop claimed Labour was making 2023 the most negative election campaign in history yesterday, while Chris Hipkins brandished examples of attack ads levelled at Labour and accused National of being thin-skinned. This “pot, kettle” debate was set off by attack ads targeting Christopher Luxon, paid for by the Council of Trade Unions (CTU). Proving the “most negative election campaign in history” claim may test the memories of students of politics, young and old. There’s the now infamous Dancing Cossacks, National’s 2005 Taxathon ads and Labour’s 2008 Two Johns ad. Perhaps the perception of negativity exists because the CTU ads target Luxon quite personally. Generally considered to be a feature of American politics, The Daisy ad run by Lyndon B Johnson in 1964 is often cited as the start of the modern era of personal attack ads. The Atlantic has a supercut of Presidential attack ads over the years which might provide a useful comparison. Landing an objective conclusion will likely require a round of post-election discourse analysis, the mention of which sends me straight back to university. As to the efficacy of the CTU ads? Some research suggests New Zealanders don’t love negative campaigning, while in the US, it’s often pointed out that liking the ads isn’t the point. A swivel-eyed Toby Manhire has his own theory involving dead cats. Stuff’s Bridie Witton also conjures a dead cat as an explanation for National’s reaction. 39 days to go, two dead cats down.

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Click and Collect

• Gore District Council chief executive Stephen Parry has resigned. You might remember him from such falling outs as the one with New Zealand’s youngest mayor, Ben Bell.

• Heavy rain forecast for Auckland and Northland, flooding possible

• James Wallace continues to deny offending and was refused parole yesterday

• There are some awful stories about migrants arriving here with Accredited Employer Work Visas and a lot of scrutiny of Immigration New Zealand’s practices right now, but here’s a quite delightful story from Stuff’s Amy Ridout about Inder Vij, who became a New Zealand citizen at age 83.

• Hero of the day: the dog that snuck out of the house to go to a Metallica concert 🤘 The photo of the dog at the concert carried me through yesterday afternoon.

Click and Elect

With the campaign well and truly underway, here’s the return of the election news round-up

• National launches its cyclone and flood recovery policy

• Act wants to overturn the ban on oil and gas exploration

• This coming Sunday, September 10, is the last day to enrol if you want to get an EasyVote card

Right now on The Spinoff

Vanessa Ellingham uncovers why Immigration New Zealand’s hold music is so uniquely terrible. Toby Manhire attends the greatest election debate of them all. Alex Casey talks to Tāme Iti about his survival skills, reclaiming the mainstream and making that viral TikTok. Shanti Mathias asks who should take the fall for online scams. In the first of our Election 2023 Hot Seat series, Joel MacManus looks at the Rongotai electorate, where voters are experiencing something different: a competitive race.

Sporting snippets

• Sky steps up in bid to see Māori and Pasifika player names pronounced correctly ahead of Rugby World Cup

• Kane Williamson to be selected in World Cup squad

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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