Don't panic, says Peters, as National claims a deal may not be possible

Warnings are growing louder that a vote for NZ First could be a vote for post-election chaos. But does National only have itself to blame?

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, October 9 by Catherine McGregor. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: Death tolls in Israel and Gaza steeply rise as airstrikes and ground fighting continue; ‘Shadow leader’ blamed for the implosion of Democracy NZ; Health NZ upset by Reti’s 19 ED visits, emails show. But first, could a vote for NZ First end up translating into a vote for a second election?

Panicking? Who’s panicking?

Chris Luxon may continue to insist he “doesn’t know” Winston Peters, but his campaign certainly does – and they’re increasingly worried about him. Echoing former leader John Key a few days earlier, campaign manager Chris Bishop told Claire Trevett in the Herald on Sunday that National needed a “strong vote for change” to avoid the alarming prospect of a second election. His plea came as a Curia/ Taxpayers’ Union poll showed surging support for Peters’ party, with the gap between NZ First and Act down to just 2.2 percentage points. According to the NZ Herald’s polling analysis, there is currently a 60% probability National and Act will need to deal with NZ First to form a government. And what happens if they can’t come to an agreement? There’s “a very real and growing possibility” that the country would be left with no choice but to go back to the polls, Bishop warns. Labour have pounced on the comments, with Grant Robertson saying National have “introduced chaos into the last week of the campaign” by raising the possibility of a no-deal. As for Peters himself, he’s clearly enjoying the drama. “Mr Bishop, don’t panic,” he said. “Help is on its way.”

The dreaded prospect of a new election

So how likely is a second election, really? Political law expert Andrew Geddis digs into the issue this morning on The Spinoff. It’s possible but not likely, he thinks, given how many forms a governing arrangement could take, and the freedom parties have to decide on the shape and content of any such agreement. But if talks do break down irrevocably, then at some point – sometime early in 2024 – we will get “a full rerun” of the election, “all at the cost of somewhere north of $150 million”. It’s hardly an appealing prospect, and it might all have been avoided if Luxon had acted more decisively. It was late July when The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire first called on the National leader to rule out NZ First as a potential coalition partner. Even Luxon saying he was open to talks with Peters wouldn’t be so bad – as long as he did it early enough. Instead, Manhire wrote this weekend, by leaving it so late, Luxon managed to “give Winston Peters a massive promotional leg-up in the peak attention period of the campaign”. Now both National and Act are dealing with the fallout from that botched decision, Manhire says. 

Peters backs himself into a corner over a potential Labour deal

As for Labour, Hipkins has again reiterated that he has no intention of picking up the phone to Peters post-election: “The country is fed up by being held to ransom by Winston Peters so if you don’t want that to happen, give your vote to Labour.” Peters likewise has repeated his promise not to work with Labour. Could Hipkins and Peters still somehow overcome their mutual dislike for the sake of power? It’d be tricky, writes Vernon Small in the Sunday Star-Times. Peters’ “preferred strategy [is] to play the two sides off and negotiate in parallel” and he has “usually maintained a smidgen of wriggle room that would allow him to exit stage right or left”. But he’s been much more definitive this campaign “and his supporters, especially the conspiracists, would run for the exit if they caught a glimpse of Labour through a crack in the curtain”. That doesn’t mean a Labour-NZ First deal couldn’t happen, but Peters would have some very angry voters to contend with if it did.

A late-breaking case of Hipsteria?

With or without NZ First, Labour are feeling increasingly confident about their chances – or so they say. Though Labour’s polling hasn’t budged from its high-20s, there’s a new spring in Hipkins’ step, writes Tim Murphy on Newsroom. Fresh from his Covid confinement, the PM “experienced something rare” at the Pakuranga night market on Saturday: “the fleeting, fervent embrace of electoral excitement”. The 11th hour dose of “Hipsteria” (a more botanical-sounding version of Jacindamania), while welcome, serves also to underline “how Labour and Hipkins have left too much, too late this campaign cycle: policy releases, big ideas, bold politicking and risks on the stump”, Murphy writes. “They'll need the seven-day revolution to occur this week or they'll be left with an excess of what-should-have-beens and what-might-have-beens.”

The Fold: The new age of investing and what’s making it boom

Whether actively or not, most of us are investors, at least through our Kiwisaver accounts. In an age where buying houses isn’t the given thing that it once was, being able to have an investment portfolio puts a lot of choice into people’s pockets.

Brian Wilmot is the CMO of investment platform Stake. He joined Duncan Greive on The Fold to talk about investing culture. Read an excerpt of the chat on The Spinoff now, or listen wherever you get your podcasts. (Sponsored)

Death tolls in Israel and Gaza steeply rise as airstrikes and ground fighting continue

Over 600 Israelis have died since Hamas launched its surprise attacks on the country, according to an Israeli government minister, who added that the toll will probably rise by “hundreds” more. Fighting is raging across Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally declared war on Hamas, setting the stage for a gigantic military offensive in Gaza. At least 370 Palestinians have died and another 2,200 have been wounded in Israeli airstrikes so far, the Palestinian health ministry said. Israel has also stopped the supply of electricity, fuel and goods to Gaza, CNN reports. The full scale of the Israeli response remains unclear, but a military spokesperson hinted the country may try to take full control of Gaza for the first time since 2005. New Zealand has joined the global community in condemning the Hamas attacks.  

‘Shadow leader’ blamed for the implosion of Democracy NZ

Once a leading light of the so-called freedom movement, Democracy NZ has crumbled in recent months, first with the resignation of five candidates in June and then an exodus of staff and donors to NZ First. What went wrong? According to former insiders spoken to by Stuff’s Tony Wall, it’s the fault of a shadowy figure with three first names. Even within the movement, Samantha-Jane Miranda is largely unknown, but she plays a big role in the party – too big, say detractors. “It’s basically the Sam Miranda party, with [former National MP] Matt King as the figurehead,” says Steve Cranston, a former candidate whose deselection kicked off the exodus. Wall struggles to find out much more about Miranda, who appears intensely secretive about her personal and professional background. Democracy NZ president Danny Simms says the former candidates’ claims about Miranda are a “smokescreen” for the real reason they left – which was that they were “not capable of working as team members”.

Health NZ upset by Reti’s 19 ED visits, emails show

Dr Shane Reti’s unauthorised visits to emergency departments caused a storm of controversy within Te Whatu Ora, reports Alex Spence for the Herald (paywalled). National’s health spokesperson made a total of 19 visits to hospital EDs to the consternation of senior staffers, “who strongly criticised the ambulance service Hato Hone St John for facilitating them”, Spence reports. Emails released under the OIA show that Te Whatu Ora’s chief of staff told Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall’s office that the frequency of Reti’s visits was “not acceptable”. Another formal letter from Te Whatu Ora accused St John of disregarding Te Whatu Ora’s “core interests” by exposing it to negative media attention and political controversy. “Wellington Free Ambulance said it is undertaking an internal review of its processes relating to observers. St John said it is politically neutral and has a good working relationship with Te Whatu Ora,” Spence reports.

Click and Collect

• Getting the full set of MasterChef cookware on offer in New World’s latest sticker promotion will cost you $7200 in groceries.

• Surprise stat of the day: the number of New Zealanders returning home from Australia has jumped by 46% in a year (granted, the number going the other direction nearly tripled). (Paywalled)

• New Zealand's most turbulent flight route - and how to avoid using the sick bag on it

Click and Elect

• The rise and fall and fall and rise and fall and rise and fall and rise of Shane Jones.

• As of close of play on Saturday, total advance voting stood at close to half a million – 480,022.

• How Christchurch’s Rollickin’ Gelato became a fixture of the election campaign (paywalled).

• Dame Helen Clark has released a video urging New Zealanders to vote Labour.

• There are no bigger ‘bread and butter’ issues than the health of our environment and future of our climate, argues Nicola Toki.

• At what age should we get the pension? Here's how parties' policies compare.

Right now on The Spinoff

Yes, school holidays are over and traffic is terrible again. But it’s really not such a big deal, argues Madeleine Holden. Sarah Myles shares the story of Jenn, who had six rounds of IVF and three pregnancies in the space of four years. None resulted in a baby. ‘Briscoes Lady’ Tammy Wells discusses her favourite and most memorable TV shows. It’s spring, so time to get (edible) planting – Gabi Lardies tells you how.

Sporting snippets

• Kane Williamson’s knee injury hasn’t fully healed, so he’s out of the Black Caps’ next World Cup match.

• Here’s the latest Rugby World Cup match schedule.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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