Change and collapse: election delivers National-Act government as tide goes out on Labour

The biggest story of last night is the collapse of Labour's support but there are plenty of surprising subplots. A slim majority for National and Act may yet have Winston Peter's phone ringing

Mōrena, and welcome to this Election 2023 special edition of The Bulletin for Sunday, October 15 by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: the story of the election, the party vote results as they stand, the big surprises in the electorates and what happens next

Christopher Luxon at his Auckland event and Chris Hipkins in the Hutt. (Photos: Getty Images)

‘When the tide comes in big, it goes out big’

Yesterday, New Zealand voted for change. A National-Act government will lead the country and Christopher Luxon will be our new prime minister. “You have reached for hope and voted for change,” Luxon said in his speech last night. Last night, an emotional Chris Hipkins acknowledged the scale of the “mood for change” as he addressed supporters in the Hutt Valley. As Toby Manhire writes this morning in a must-read assessment of all that has led us to this moment, “While a fall from the heights of 2020, made anomalous by the Covid context and a dysfunctional opposition, was inevitable, one of this scale was not.” 

While the change mandate is clear in the party vote, it’s played out in the electorates as well. As Newsroom’s Marc Daalder writes, the results in Auckland carry a clear message for Labour. Several seats including Mt Roskill, New Lynn and, at the time of writing, Te Atatū look like they’ve flipped blue. In Mt Albert, a seat held by former prime minister Dame Jacinda Ardern with a 20,000 vote majority in 2020, Helen White is only 106 votes ahead of National’s Melissa Lee. Special votes will be a factor here, particularly in Mt Albert, Te Atatu and New Lynn. The “mood for change” narrative doesn’t just belong to National, however. You can read reports on some of the likely and surprising victories from the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Act below.

Insider reports from last night’s parties

Our Wellington editor Joel MacManus was at the Lower Hutt Town Hall with Labour last night and provided this excellent read of the room. “It certainly wasn’t a jubilant night, but it wasn’t quite as depressing as it could have been. Mostly because there was barely any hope to begin with. No one even bothered to buy any red balloons.” Live Updates editor Stewart Sowman-Lund spent the night with National, definitively capturing the mood. “If National’s election night event in 2020 was a “funeral”, Saturday night’s celebration at Auckland’s Shed 10 was closer to a wedding. Or perhaps more aptly a 21st birthday, where initial nervous anticipation over who’d show up ultimately ended in a complete blow out.”

What now?

You will note the caveated language throughout this morning’s Bulletin. “Looks to”, “likely” and “probable” and while there are some very clear majorities, there are also some very slim ones. Results are still preliminary until November 3. While they will not change the fact that we will have a National-Act government, they may introduce a need for some kind of working arrangement with NZ First. As it stands National and Act have 61 seats. Over 500,000 special votes must be counted (overseas and out-of-electorate votes) and a byelection has to be held in Port Waikato on November 25. National are picked to win that but the majority would still be slim. The byelection, coupled with Te Pāti Māori’s resurgence at this point also means parliament is likely to have at least 122, and possibly 123 MPs. Winston Peters may yet receive a call from Luxon to provide a buffer.

• The seats that are too close to call — Glenn McConnell, Stuff

• The likely repeal and policy delivery agenda for the weeks ahead — Thomas Coughlan, NZ Herald (paywalled)

• National will lead a new government, but it may be nigh Christmas before its precise shape becomes clear — Jono Milne, Newsroom

More for the taking

• The event may have passed, but the sparkling commentary in our live blog on last night’s television coverage and the image of Newshub’s “Laser Kiwi” hatching MPs lives forever

• The photos that tell the story of last night

• Coverage is continuing on The Spinoff this morning as politicians and pundits line up for interviews

• A Gone by Lunchtime special with Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas is on its way today. In the meantime, here’s last night’s wrap from Manhire, Mad Chapman and I which, for noting, was recorded around midnight. 😵‍💫

A message from Spinoff editor Madeleine Chapman

Thanks to the generous support of Spinoff Members, we were able to cover this election more expansively than ever before with writers reporting from Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, New Plymouth, Wairarapa, Gisborne, Auckland and Northland. With the results in, we will continue to interrogate and report on those who lead this country with rigour, range and humour. If you value The Spinoff’s political coverage, now is a great time to join the thousands of people who support The Spinoff by becoming a member or making a donation.

- Madeleine Chapman, Spinoff editor

A magical night for Te Pāti Māori

Charlotte Muru-Lanning and Tommy de Silva report on Te Pāti’s Māori “remarkable” victories last night. Co-leader Rawiri Waititi was really the only “sure thing” before last night and he has a large lead in the Waiariki seat. Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer also finished with a strong lead in Te Tai Hauāuru. New Zealand's longest standing female MP Nanaia Mahuta looks to have lost her Hauraki-Waikato seat to 21-year-old Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, and in a huge upset in Te Tai Tonga, held by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene for over a decade, Tākuta Ferris looks to have won that seat.

Winston won’t be kingmaker but has returned

At this point, NZ First will have eight seats in the next parliament. As mentioned above, an overhang and special votes may see Luxon wanting a NZ First buffer. Gathered with supporters at the Duke of Marlborough hotel in Russell, Winston Peters was defiant. “When we first said a few years ago that we are going to make a comeback they all laughed at us. Well, they're not laughing now are they”, he said.

• “Hang on, because there's election 2026 and we're getting ready for it” — Newshub

Greens win Auckland Central and Wellington Central

A bittersweet night for the Green party. It will not be in government but it looks to have won at least two electorate seats and may well claim a third. Chlöe Swarbrick has a 2,074 vote majority over her nearest rival, National’s Mahesh Muralidhar, in Auckland Central while Tamatha Paul has a 3,324 lead over Labour’s Ibrahim Omer. In Rongotai, Julie Anne Genter is leading Labour’s Fleur Fitzsimon by 792 votes. Co-leader Marama Davidson struck a celebratory tone last night saying she was “stoked” with the results, while Swarbrick called out the party’s undeniably strong “ground game”, saying “This is what people power change looks like.”

• Who is Tamatha Paul? The young wāhine Māori who turned Wellington green —Georgina Campbell, NZ Herald

• Greens run a targeted campaign with local focus and will look on track to flip the previously safe Labour seat of Rongotai

An Act enclave in Auckland

With David Seymour looking very secure in Epsom, the biggest electorate story of the night for Act was Brooke van Velden’s win in Tāmaki. As Shanti Mathias observed from Act’s electorate party last night, early results that showed van Velden leading elicited a “holy f**k” from the mouth of one candidate.

• Brooke van Velden is looming as the Act party’s next leader — Mark Jennings, Newsroom

Australia also voted, rejecting proposal to recognise Aboriginal people in constitution

Results from yesterday’s referendum in Australia have seen the country decisively reject a proposal to give greater rights to indigenous people, including enshrining an indigenous advisory authority in the constitution. All six states voted ‘No’, with between 70-80% of the vote counted at the time of publishing, and the national vote is sitting at 60% ‘No’ with 74% of the vote counted. Prime minister Anthony Albanese has accepted the result and called for Australians to show “kindness” to each other after the referendum. “This moment of disagreement does not define us. And it will not divide us,” he said. Peter Dutton, the leader of the opposition, has commended the result, calling it “good for our country”.

Sporting snippets

Not so much a snippet but a happening event. It’s possible no one will read this on publishing as the All Blacks take on Ireland in the Rugby World Cup quarter-final. If you’re not watching on a big screen for the final moments and do open this as it lands, you can follow the game here.

Gone to the dogs

If rugby isn’t your cup of tea, and you’ve had your fill of politicians’ faces, I can wholeheartedly recommend a scroll through our “dogs at polling booths” live blog.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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