Budget 2022: what chance a surprise?
The tenor of today’s budget has been well signposted but people are still hoping for something to make life less difficult.
Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, May 19, by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.
In today’s edition: pandemic effects will be felt for years; new body for athlete welfare; Hutt Hospital building to close; but first, budget day is here.
Grant Robertson with budget cover featuring photo he took himself (Photo: RNZ/Angus Dreaver)
All the pre-budget announcements
Today FM’s Tova O’Brien did a quick count of this year’s pre-budget announcements, identified nine and called the abundant approach “smart”. The Herald has listed ten. It’s not unprecedented though: there were 16 in 2019. Last year, there were four. This year’s included large investments in police, the apprentice training scheme, mental health and family and sexual violence prevention. The most significant of these pre-budget announcements was really the Emission Reduction Plan on Monday. Climate and health have been flagged as the budget set pieces for a while now. Newshub reported that a “significant investment in Māori health” is likely.
The chance of surprise
As Thomas Coughlan outlines (paywalled), the budget is really three things. The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU, a set of forecasts), a fiscal strategy report and the estimates. Those are what people tune in for. This year’s new operating allowance is $6b. Budget 2022 is titled “A Secure Future” so many are picking that the only real room for surprise is whether the government will respond to things like my petrol costing $3.12p/l yesterday. Economists are asking that anything on that front not add to inflationary pressure. The Herald’s Jenée Tibshraeny (paywalled) has a list of four things to keep an eye out for. 1 News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay also has some predictions.
What people want from the budget
Anecdotally there is a sense people want relief from everyday cost pressures and that this isn’t just about recent inflationary increases but a layering of ongoing issues like housing costs. Stuff asked 13 people what they wanted and most were looking for something to make life a bit easier – benefit increases, a reduction in GST and continuation of the public transport fare discount. A poll from Curia commissioned by the Taxpayers' Union which surveyed 1000 people in early April found 65% didn’t want government spending to increase, but stay level. Stuff’s Susan Edmunds spoke to business leaders and their wishlist features ways to address the skill shortages and a desire to see spending reigned in.
You are: disinterested/busy/a super fan
Budget day traditions will prevail. Delivery of a tie for Grant Robertson has been organised and the PM and Robertson will virtually eat a (hopefully real) cheese roll this morning. The budget lockup starts at 10.30am and the embargo lifts at 2pm. The Spinoff will have live updates and reactions from then. If you want a budget 101, Irra Lee at 1 News has an explainer. For people who are just trying to live their life, there is this A-Z of terms you’ll hear today. For budget history super fans, there is a quiz. I am not telling you my score, but it was “statistically worse than a chimp rolling dice” and lower than the average, which quizmaster Toby Manhire reports is 4/10.
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We might be done with the pandemic but it is not done with us
You might recall Grant Robertson saying at a breakfast last week that he was well and truly over Covid. Michael Baker has said the same lately. It’s not an uncommon sentiment – weary and worried isn’t a preferred state for most people. But we’ve just had two days of Covid case numbers in the 9000s with a second omicron wave predicted for June. Case numbers are at “high alert” level in New York and rising again in Australia. A new report from the International Science Council says we will be dealing with the pandemic and its effects for at least another five years. Several hundred experts contributed to the report and are urging governments to work together to not only address vaccine equity and prevention but also the social fall-out.
New body to be established to oversee athlete welfare
The Bounce’s Dylan Cleaver broke this story (for paid subscribers) saying several sources have told him the government is planning on announcing the establishment of an independent sports integrity bureau. Stuff’s Dana Johannsen has also picked up the story here. At Monday’s post-cabinet press conference, the same day as the Cycling NZ and High Performance Sport NZ report was released (covered in yesterday’s Bulletin), Grant Robertson did signal that “change is coming”. Both Stuff and Cleaver say that Drug Free Sport NZ’s operations will be folded into the new body. While the timing makes it sound reactive, a working group headed by Don Mackinnon has been looking at how such a body might work for 18 months.
Hutt Hospital building a quake risk and must close
The Heretaunga Building at Hutt Hospital was deemed earthquake prone in a recent seismic report. It will need to close and patients will need to be moved. The building accounts for a quarter of the hospital beds in the Wellington region and 79% of beds at the hospital. It received a 15% rating. Anything below 34% is considered earthquake prone. The rating was revealed to the media by National party MP Chris Bishop. Health minister Andrew Little has said he will ensure patients can still access healthcare in the Hutt Valley.
Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz
Reweti Kohere has ranked the covers of every budget dating back to the start of the millennium. Duncan Greive reports on the first "Australia and New Zealand" slate announced by Disney+ this week, which includes precisely zero New Zealand content. Charlotte Muru-Lanning goes in search of an iconic salad dressing that's vanished from New Zealand supermarket shelves. And Josie Adams' Instagram feed is full of ads for clothes that don't actually exist – could AI be about to take over the fashion industry?
New Zealand Music Month
As Annabelle Parata Vaughan and Sebastian Rice Walsh write for Critic Te Arohi, Dunedin has long been known for its music scene but there’s currently a shortage of venues for the music community to use. Almost all the places I used to frequent in my time as a student at Otago no longer exist. A movement has been launched to “reunite people with their inalienable right to dance”. As part of that, students broke into an old bar and hosted a guerilla gig called the “Felonious Fandango”. The former owner of the bar said his only disappointment was that he wasn’t there.
