A tale of two polls

Te Pāti Māori hits a high, but not at the expense of Act, after a massive month in politics.

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Tuesday, December 10.

In today’s edition: Nicola Willis puts the big banks ‘on notice’, the Commerce Commission is filing criminal charges some supermarkets for inaccurate pricing and misleading specials, and the PM is tight-lipped on a plan to replace our aging Interislander ferries. But first, movements for the minor parties in a pair of new polls.

Te Pāti Māori hits poll high

We’re rapidly heading towards the end of the political year, and one party in particular has received an early Christmas present. Two polls released yesterday showed Te Pāti Māori jumping in popularity after a high profile month that saw the country’s biggest ever protest arrive on the forecourt of parliament and the introduction of a highly controversial piece of legislation, the treaty principles bill. The latest 1News Verian poll, reported here by political editor Maiki Sherman, had the two major parties steady – National on 37% and Labour trailing on 29%. The Greens were down two to 10% (we talked about their challenging year in some depth yesterday morning), and Act was steady on 8%. But Te Pāti Māori was up three points to 7%, the party’s highest result in a 1News poll ever and well above its previous record of 4.4% back in 2008 when the party was incredibly different. It placed them ahead of New Zealand First on 6%, though the current coalition would still be in a position to form a government with 63 seats to the opposition’s 57.

Meanwhile, a Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union also had Te Pāti Māori three points up on 5.5%, reported RNZ, though the overall numbers showed National and Act wouldn’t even need New Zealand First’s support to form a government. So, no change of government from either poll – but that’s not the most interesting part.

‘A lot of publicity’

While neither poll would mean a change in government, Te Pāti Māori will undoubtedly be pleased with its rise in popularity. This is only its second term back in parliament after being turfed out altogether in 2017 when Labour swept the Māori seats. On both these latest poll results, Te Pāti Māori would still be in parliament with or without any electorates – the party has never polled above 3.08% in any general election. In comments to 1News, the leaders of both Labour and Act were sceptical the numbers would stay high for long. "They've had a lot of publicity over the last few weeks,” said Chris Hipkins. "It's boosted their attention,” said David Seymour in reference to the recent nationwide hīkoi. “But attention is always followed by scrutiny.”

Unless the polls shift substantially over the next two years, Hipkins is going to need Te Pāti Māori to have any chance of forming a coalition – indeed, the three opposition parties have been more unified than usual in recent months. However, Labour will be wary of having its own support eaten away. The near sweep for Te Pāti Māori in the Māori electorates at the last election came as something of a surprise to Labour, as Aaron Smale looked at for Newsroom here.

Sucking up the oxygen

The flipside of this is that Act – the party on the opposite end of the treaty principles debate that has likely boosted Te Pāti Māori – hasn’t suffered in either of these polls. It was steady in the 1News survey, around the same result it received at the election. Curia had the party up 4.5%. It reflects what commentators have previously suggested about the debate over the treaty principles bill and the protests in response to it: that both parties will attempt capitalise on it. The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire, attempting to prove whether or not Act has had “disproportionate” influence in the coalition as Seymour recently claimed, looked at public interest in the three government parties on Google. It showed that over recent weeks, as the debate over the treaty principles bill raged on, searches for Act and Seymour spiked significantly. Dan Brunskill, writing for Interest, said that Seymour had “staked the success of the bill on his ability to win a public argument, in the ancient Athenian style, and cause National to cave under the pressure”.

National has largely bowed out of that argument, with PM Christopher Luxon consistently repeating his view that the bill is divisive but otherwise avoiding to be dragged deeper in (and he was not present in parliament for the bill’s first reading). One of his MPs, James Meager, is in charge of the justice committee that will oversee the public consultation process of the doomed bill and has pledged to keep the process neutral, he told Toby Manhire on Gone by Lunchtime. “In this instance, that might be slightly different, because everyone has their positions laid out and they will not change, but it is still, I think, worth having the conversation when it comes before us and treating it with the respect that you treat any other piece of legislation.”

Poll shows majority support for Aukus

Meanwhile, a very different poll released this morning shows support for the government joining pillar two of the Aukus security pact, reported Andrea Vance for The Post. According to the Freshwater Strategy poll, a slim majority – 51% – back moves to sign up to Aukus, while 20% are opposed. It’s worth noting that 29% were either unsure or listed their response as “neither”. Supporters of the coalition government are more likely than other party voters to support pillar two, and men are more likely than women to approve. Last week, as we talked about, Labour ruled out joining Aukus should it become government again in 2026 and pledged to pull New Zealand out of the agreement if the coalition gets us in there before then.

*Editor’s note: The email version of this newsletter mistakenly said this was Te Pāti Māori’s second term back in government, not parliament. This has been corrected.

How satellites in the sky are bridging New Zealand’s connectivity gap

Approximately 40% of New Zealand remains untouched by traditional mobile coverage. New technology will start to change this. From trampers to truck drivers, many could stand to benefit. Read more about how you might soon be able to text in the middle of nowhere, here. (sponsored)

Big banks ‘on notice’ as competition back in the spotlight

Finance minister Nicola Willis says the big banks are now on notice, with steps taken to increase competition in the sector. The government intends to implement all 14 recommendations from a Commerce Commission report into the banking sector that found New Zealanders weren’t being served well. As part of the crackdown, Dan Brunskill explains for Interest, Kiwibank has been directed to reach out to investors about a $500m capital raise to help it compete better against the Australian owned banks. A decision about whether to allow Kiwibank to raise funds through a public offering on the sharemarket will be considered after the next election. Willis said an additional $500 million of capital could allow Kiwibank to lend up to an extra $4 billion to businesses or $10 billion to home buyers.

The Post’s Luke Malpass was sceptical about the impact of the government’s actions, noting there was “nothing much new” in the announcement. And, he said the press conference yesterday highlighted the differences between Willis and prime minister Christopher Luxon. “Willis was crisp and to the point (agree or not with the content), while Luxon struggled to answer questions and at one pointed hewed back to how interest rate cuts have been good, despite the overall purpose of the press conference being that a lack of competition is bad.”

The future of The Spinoff depends on its audience

As many of you will have seen, we published an open letter outlining the financial situation we find ourselves in. Only 2% of our audience financially supports us. Doubling that number is our last, best shot at retaining the ability to carry on doing what we do. To those who have already supported, we thank you. If you can and haven't yet, please become a member or donate today.

Best of 2024: The fast rise and faster collapse of the acclaimed K Road restaurant Cotto

As we race towards the end of the year, it’s time to take a look back at some of the biggest and best Spinoff stories from 2024. This morning: my deep dive into the unexpected close of a popular Auckland restaurant first published on February 8.

One of the biggest and most in-depth reports I’ve written during my time at The Spinoff was this investigation into Cotto, the popular Auckland pasta bar that unexpectedly closed its doors about a year ago. A few months later, shortly after my report came out, the restaurant suddenly reopened under a slightly different name. Here’s an extract:

Speculation first started to spread on Facebook and Reddit, with concerned patrons questioning why their group bookings had been cancelled at such short notice. Then, a note was seen pinned to the outside of the restaurant blaming “unforeseen circumstances”, though the precise details of this were not made public. There was no indication if the closure would be permanent and it’s understood staff weren’t even aware the restaurant wouldn’t be opening when they turned up for work on November 21. A few days later, the locks were changed.

The Year in Review at Q Theatre in Auckland

After a sold-out night in Wellington, senior writer Anna Rawhiti-Connell will again take a running jump backward into the year’s biggest headlines, political dramas and Spinoff yarns at Q Theatre on December 11. Award-winning writer and podcaster Dr Emma Wehipeihana and Spinoff alum Hayden Donnell will join her live on stage.

Come along for a night of easy laughs to wrap up this crazy year.

Click and Collect

• In breaking news this morning, the Commerce Commission is filing criminal charges against Woolworths and two Pak'nSave supermarkets for inaccurate pricing and misleading specials.

• Council of Trade Unions, Taxpayers’ Union among those barred from upcoming Treasury briefing.

• Former governor general Dame Patsy Reddy has been appointed to lead the Climate Change Commission.

• PM tight-lipped on plan to replace Interislander ferries, but an announcement is expected within the next 24 hours. Here’s some good analysis on the situation from Newsroom’s Jonathan Milne.

• Nurses begin rolling strikes in Auckland today. Meanwhile, the government is making moves to allow for pay deductions in response to “partial strikes” – or the refusal of extra duties.

• For BusinessDesk subscribers (paywalled), Oliver Lewis reveals the proposed Wellington megatunnel could have cost $7.6 billion. In Auckland, Stuff reports that early geological work on a second harbour crossing is due to begin in the new year.

• A flurry of wildfires have kicked off what is likely to be a challenging fire season.

• Ever wanted to hear Kim Hill interview Boris Johnson? Now is your chance.

• And, just because, here is the trailer for Severance season two. Vanity Fair had a good preview of the new run of episodes last week. The Golden Globes nominations have also been released this morning.

Right now on The Spinoff

Freezers, pasteurisers and funding woes: Shanti Mathias spends a day at a human milk bank in Christchurch. Gabi Lardies talks to the owner of Geoff's Emporium as the Auckland institution closes after 42 years. Myra Williams explains the significance of the downfall of the Al-Assad dynasty as a new day dawns in Syria. Thomas Giblin rounds up what to watch this week on streaming services. Hera Lindsay Bird has a book recommendation for each year of life, from age 0-30. Liam Rātana presents an etiquette guide for attending a tangi. Gabi Lardies recaps Auckland’s new alcohol policy now that off-licences and bottle shops close at 9pm.

That’s it for another day. Thanks for reading and see you back here tomorrow.

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