A different Hipkins turns up to debate and proves he’s got some fight left

Last night's debate was far livelier and Hipkins has clearly received the message that he needed to step up

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Thursday, September 28 by Anna Rawhiti-Connell. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: National will release its fiscal plan on Friday; 34 crashes prevented in 12 months on one stretch of road; police are highly visible across Wellington ahead of anticipated protest activity today; but first, consensus view delivers a win for Hipkins at second leaders’ debate

Hipkins far livelier, more prepared and more present

According to Tova O'Brien’s sources, Chris Hipkins received a phone call from former prime minister Helen Clark after last week’s debate, urging him to “fight”. Clark hasn’t confirmed that, but something happened between the TVNZ debate and last night’s Newshub debate. As Toby Manhire writes in our group assessment of the debate on The Spinoff, whatever the message was, and wherever it came from, it was clear Hipkins hadn’t just got it, “he’d ground it into a paste and injected it into his spinal cord.” If you missed the debate, you can catch up via our live blog. Hipkins was altogether far livelier, more prepared and more present last night. The consensus from us, the Herald (paywalled) and Newshub’s pundits was that Hipkins won last night. Janet Wilson’s observation that Hipkins appeared to be in “leader of the opposition” mode while Christopher Luxon took on the role of “statesman” is also worth noting. That’s undoubtedly a reflection of current polling, with last night’s 1News Verian poll once again reinforcing who is the underdog in this campaign. 

No escaping the Winston Peters question

Last night’s poll was markedly similar to Monday’s Newshub Reid research poll, with National and Act short one seat of being able to form a government on their own and requiring the support of NZ First. Winston Peters made several appearances at the debate via a tweet and lines of questioning. Moderator Paddy Gower asked both leaders whether they’d work with him, prompting Luxon to say he didn't want to just a few days after saying he would. Luxon then went on to say he didn’t know Peters, which might be true to a certain extent and, come what may, creates some plausible deniability, but Gower’s incredulous “Everyone knows him; he’s Winston Peters!” is one of the most accurate statements of the night. Good zinger but arguably, Peters’ more substantive insertion into matters of consequence this week has been his request to see National’s detailed tax costings ahead of forming any government with the party.

More entertaining, more good-humoured but how does it serve voters?

As with last week’s debate, there were more moments of agreement between the leaders. I’m unsure if it was the order of questions or the livelier audience, but these had more of an air of good humour than last week's converged inertia. As frivolous as it sounds, last night’s debate was also more entertaining. In a campaign many describe as failing to inspire, research suggests debates lead to increased voting rates among prior nonvoters. Something of a shot in the arm can not be a bad thing, although Newsroom’s Mark Jennings raises some legitimate questions this morning about whether this format really serves voters. Jo Moir also makes a good point in clocking both leaders’ failure to properly acknowledge the people in the room whose real life scenarios were used as a kick-off for questioning lines. 

Both leaders agree alcohol is more dangerous than cannabis

The debate raised matters of substance in more ways than one. RNZ has a good summary of what was promised and ruled out. Both leaders made commitments on police numbers, bowel screening and nurses’ pay. Both made claims warranting a fact check from Marc Daalder and Matthew Scott at Newsroom. Luxon initially flubbed a question about whether someone taking MDMA (Ecstasy or Molly) at a festival was a criminal, saying they weren’t before clarifying that they technically were. One of the more egregiously hypocritical moments of the night was delivered when both leaders said they thought alcohol was more dangerous than cannabis. Both leaders had said they didn't think cannabis should be decriminalised at the TVNZ debate last week. That will undoubtedly frustrate those who’ve been pointing out the flawed logic of our drug and alcohol laws for decades. While I think last night was the first time both leaders sounded like they might have given some thought to life beyond the current cycle of economic woe, these kinds of backflips don’t help defuse a sense that both are operating in a reactive rather than proactive mode.

The everyday technologies essential for accessibility

For the one-in-four New Zealanders with a disability, technology that the other three quarters of people take for granted can be crucial for their ability to live independently and participate fully in society. We spoke to four people with disabilities about the tech they rely on. Read the full piece, in partnership with One NZ, on The Spinoff now (sponsored).

National’s fiscal plan due on Friday

National leader Christopher Luxon was asked last night if he would resign if the party couldn't raise the forecast revenue from its proposed foreign buyers tax. Luxon didn't answer the question, instead saying he would resign if he couldn't deliver tax relief to low and middle income New Zealanders. Luxon also confirmed that the party would release its fiscal plan on Friday. Labour released its plan detailing how it expects to pay for policies, like GST-free fruit and vegetables and building 6000 more state homes, yesterday. The independent consultancy Infometrics and its principal economist Brad Olsen reviewed the party's plans and suggested the party's costings are “reasonable”. There wasn’t much that was unexpected in yesterday’s release, but as Duncan Greive notes, it doubles down on the party’s “trust us with your money” aesthetic.

Crashes prevented: 34, maximum minutes added: 3.6

Good follow-up from the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan on all the talk about raising speed limits, as per National’s policy released over the weekend. An independent report by Ernst and Young for Waka Kotahi into applying lower speed limits on a 76km stretch of road found it prevented 34 crashes in 12 months. The speed limit was lowered from 100km/h speed limit to 80km/h on State Highway 5 between Rangitāiki and Esk Valley. It’s a particularly dangerous stretch of road, with 16 fatalities and 75 serious injuries occurring between 2010 and 2019. The lower speed limit added between 36 seconds and 3.6 minutes across a single journey. A cost-benefit model also found the avoided crashes created $93m worth of benefits, while the slower journey times created costs worth $1.3m that year.

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Click and Collect

• Police are highly visible across Wellington ahead of anticipated protest activity heading to parliament grounds today

• Auckland’s beaches remain unsafe to swim at after sinkhole causes sewer pipe blockage and overflow into the harbour

• Mediaworks referred to government enforcement team over failure to file financial statement by September 1 deadline

• Hackers are offering data stolen during the cyber attack on Auckland Transport earlier this month for sale on dark web

• A survey from Deloitte in the US found that Gen Z are three times more likely to get caught up in an online scam than baby boomers. Good read on why that might be happening.

Click and Elect

• Labour accuses National of copying its homework on police numbers

• Hayden Donnell pens a blistering opinion about National’s benefit sanction plans

• Tommy de Silva and Charlotte Muru-Lanning reflect on the political hāngī pit at Tuesday night’s Kaupapa Māori debate

• Sela Jane Hopgood spends time with Carmel Sepuloni out in West Auckland and finds out why she doesn’t want to be prime minister

• Mapping the edges of New Zealand’s political discourse — the fringe parties fighting for the vote

Right now on The Spinoff

The royal commission on the Covid response is largely happening behind closed doors. In an exclusive, Duncan Greive speaks to those helming it. Stewart Sowman-Lund profiles the Ōhāriu hot seat, which could be for turning this year. TOP leader Raf Manji names the book he wishes he’d never read for The Spinoff Books Confessional. Duncan Greive gets in early with his pick for this year's most emotional TV moment. Gabi Lardies shops the fit of kingmaker and king of pocket squares, Winston Peters. Tara Ward picks up the pieces after a tumultuous week on Celebrity Treasure Island.

Sporting snippets

• Redeeming themselves somewhat after losing to an English side Netball New Zealand inferred weren’t good enough, the Silver Ferns beat England last night

• Sam Cane, Shannon Frizell, Tyrel Lomax and Jordie Barrett return from injury, named in the All Blacks team to face Italy on Saturday morning

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.

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