The clock started on National's first 100-day plan yesterday. Economists say a change of government will make very little difference to the country's fiscal outlook.
Whether or not the 100-Day Clock for the new New Zealand government starts now or after 3 November, here are some predictions of things that will happen in the next three years:
- New Zealand will continue its slide down the international Human Development Index, from placed 4 (before the National Party's 'Mother of All Budgets') to 14 now.
- The reason for this continued slide - as to now - will be our growing Gini Co-efficient, reflected by the widening gap between rich and poor
- New Zealand's grotesquely-unfair tax system will continue, where the very richest people pay a much smaller tax relative to their income compared to working people on modest wages.
- The call for a more progressive tax system will become louder and wider.
- New Zealand will lose its current ranking as the least-corrupt country in the world.
- House prices will increase. For young people, housing will not become more accessible or more affordable.
- The promised 'downward pressure' on landlords regarding the cost of rentals, will not happen. Landlords will not reduce rents.
- Put simply, all of the above means the rich will get (much) richer; the poor will get screwed.
- Emissions of greenhouse gasses will start trending upwards again.
- The environmental health of our fresh-water and marine ecosystems will continue to decline.
- Government departmental cost-cutting will affect the Department of Conservation most severely.
- Left to local government, the decline and breakdowns in our water-supply infrastructure will continue.
- Extreme weather events will continue to happen. There will not be adequate budget to respond properly to them.
Just a technical thing: I often click links to spinoff articles here and the app either delivers me to the home page or to the last thing I read, instead of the specific article I'm trying to get to. Would love a fix for the convenience!
One family, one mortgage hasn't been 'bog-standard' for New Zealanders for at least the last decade. And on National government form, it's likely to become even more the preserve of (mostly white) people whose parents own more than one property and can help them to the deposit. Māori and Pacific home ownership rates will slide further, much faster.
It was entirely predictable that the coalition negotiations would be complex and time-consuming. Responsible leadership should avoid making promises that they can't possibly keep. I heard frequently that they would take certain actions "before Christmas", when it was apparent to anyone with thinking informed by history that it would be impossible to achieve that goal, and that it was just blatant vote seeking. This immediately creates a credibility gap which will be hard to hide.
Whether or not the 100-Day Clock for the new New Zealand government starts now or after 3 November, here are some predictions of things that will happen in the next three years:
- New Zealand will continue its slide down the international Human Development Index, from placed 4 (before the National Party's 'Mother of All Budgets') to 14 now.
- The reason for this continued slide - as to now - will be our growing Gini Co-efficient, reflected by the widening gap between rich and poor
- New Zealand's grotesquely-unfair tax system will continue, where the very richest people pay a much smaller tax relative to their income compared to working people on modest wages.
- The call for a more progressive tax system will become louder and wider.
- New Zealand will lose its current ranking as the least-corrupt country in the world.
- House prices will increase. For young people, housing will not become more accessible or more affordable.
- The promised 'downward pressure' on landlords regarding the cost of rentals, will not happen. Landlords will not reduce rents.
- Put simply, all of the above means the rich will get (much) richer; the poor will get screwed.
- Emissions of greenhouse gasses will start trending upwards again.
- The environmental health of our fresh-water and marine ecosystems will continue to decline.
- Government departmental cost-cutting will affect the Department of Conservation most severely.
- Left to local government, the decline and breakdowns in our water-supply infrastructure will continue.
- Extreme weather events will continue to happen. There will not be adequate budget to respond properly to them.
Good luck to all of us!
Just a technical thing: I often click links to spinoff articles here and the app either delivers me to the home page or to the last thing I read, instead of the specific article I'm trying to get to. Would love a fix for the convenience!
What a load of rubbish, they are not in Government. Labour is still the interim Government. National can't start till a Government is formed.
One family, one mortgage hasn't been 'bog-standard' for New Zealanders for at least the last decade. And on National government form, it's likely to become even more the preserve of (mostly white) people whose parents own more than one property and can help them to the deposit. Māori and Pacific home ownership rates will slide further, much faster.
My 6c worth... https://ianguy.substack.com/p/reflections-on-october-14th
And the irresponsible headline award goes to...
The 100 days starts when the new Government is sworn in.
I accept that things are unlikely to change within the first 100 days, but you can’t start the clock until the new Government is in place.
It was entirely predictable that the coalition negotiations would be complex and time-consuming. Responsible leadership should avoid making promises that they can't possibly keep. I heard frequently that they would take certain actions "before Christmas", when it was apparent to anyone with thinking informed by history that it would be impossible to achieve that goal, and that it was just blatant vote seeking. This immediately creates a credibility gap which will be hard to hide.