After the omicron peak

Michael Baker on what’s next for the country and whether the traffic light system can survive

Mōrena and welcome to The Bulletin for Wednesday, March 9, by Justin Giovannetti. Presented in partnership with Z Energy.

In today’s edition: Grocery study dismisses significant change; cost of living battle at parliament; Covid-positive health staff told to work; but first, a look at omicron’s future in Aotearoa.

University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker. (Image: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone)

Aotearoa is now in the midst of its omicron surge, with over 20,000 daily cases.

International comparisons of Covid-19 responses have always been difficult and less insightful than we’d like through the pandemic, however there are some important lessons that can be drawn from looking across the Tasman today. After abandoning their respective elimination strategies, both Aotearoa and Australia experienced steep omicron outbreaks. Australia’s outbreak, really the ones in New South Wales and Victoria, peaked in mid-January and quickly declined. Aotearoa’s surge is now nearly identical to Australia’s peak. I spoke to epidemiologist Michael Baker about what we can learn from the Australian omicron experience, and perhaps more importantly, where it points to next.

But first the cautionary tale of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong also maintained an elimination strategy and its omicron outbreak began at the same time as Aotearoa’s. As a share of the population, Hong Kong’s case numbers are now significantly worse, but we shouldn’t focus too much on those. Case numbers during omicron, especially when so much is based on self-reported rapid tests, are only helpful to a point. What’s more important is hospitalisations and deaths.

“We both haven’t really had the virus before. Our immunities all come from vaccination. New Zealand delayed the inevitable, so it turned out, until we got good vaccine coverage of our older, more vulnerable groups. Our peak hasn’t translated into large numbers of deaths. We will see a lot more deaths, but nothing like Hong Kong. It’s quite a frightening curve there,” he said.

The uncoupling of cases and deaths.

Aotearoa’s case numbers and its death rate have now uncoupled, they don’t follow very closely. For those questioning the value of vaccines, look to Hong Kong. The city had experienced very few Covid deaths prior to omicron. It’s now in the midst of a Covid death wave, with nearly 2,000 fatalities over the past month. The number of recorded Covid deaths is now increasing by nearly 200 daily. Aotearoa has had 65 deaths from Covid, in total. What’s the difference? Older residents in Hong Kong have low levels of vaccine protection, while the opposite is true in Aotearoa. The Wall Street Journal has written about the city's deadly turn under omicron.

The Spinoff’s Covid data tracker has the latest figures.

Australia points to the world ahead.

Aotearoa’s cases aren’t really expected to peak for a few more weeks. If we’re lucky, Auckland could be near its peak now and the data will be messy over the next fortnight as the country’s regions reach their own individual peaks. Once that happens, case number should fall rapidly. But they won’t fall to zero.

“Places like New South Wales and Victoria are good places to look, because that’s what we’ll look like post peak. We will have ongoing transmission in New Zealand, potentially indefinitely, no one knows for how long,” said Baker.

New South Wales’ infections levelled out a month ago at about 10,000 cases daily. Victoria is also hovering around 6,000 daily cases a day. Both those states have larger populations than Aotearoa, but they give us a sense of what cases could look like. “That’s what we can expect. It’ll rise steeply, fall steeply and settle around a new equilibrium,” said Baker.

Why won’t omicron burn itself out?

“Your antibodies to omicron wane quite rapidly, so we’ll all be susceptible again in a few more months. People who weren’t infected in this first wave may well get infected later in the year. The effects of the booster will also wane, so we’ll get more vulnerable again,” according to Baker.

What comes next, either more boosters or a different approach, is unclear. 

The future of the traffic light system.

I asked Baker if it was likely we could move to orange in the preview provided across the Tasman. He was uncertain. The traffic light system seems more tailored for a delta world, where the armour of vaccines is more complete.

“I think we need to create a new system from the one we had in the past, that’s more fit-for-purpose. The traffic light system is two things, it is bits of the alert system with an added indoor vaccine mandate. I find it quite complex and you can’t seperate it out from what mandates will be needed in the future. I prefer a simpler alert system that just tells you, at a population level, what precautions you need to take out in the community. It’s simple, it’s unambiguous and it’s not divisive, we’re all in it together,” he said.

Speaking to The Bulletin, Covid-19 minister Chris Hipkins said the traffic light system will remain in its current form, but he hadn’t given it much thought for a post-peak world: “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There will be plenty of time to consider that.” Looking across the Tasman, about a month.

A note from Toby Manhire, editor at large

On Wednesday March 2, the 23-day occupation of parliament came to an end amid terrible and unprecedented scenes on the doorstep of New Zealand’s house of representatives. It was a lot to keep up with – and a lot to get our collective heads around. At the Spinoff we were able to call on Justin Giovannetti, our political editor, to report from the press gallery, while Stewart Sowman Lund travelled to Wellington to run our news updates on location.
More than any protest action in New Zealand history, it needed to be understood not just on the ground, but in the digital undergrowth. Dylan Reeve dived into a teachable moment; I surveyed the key figureheads; Madeleine Chapman raised the alarm on a puff piece. Annabelle Lee-Mather, Justin and I discussed it all on the latest edition of the Gone By Lunchtime podcast (listen here).
The story is far from over, and we’ll continue to pull on the threads: from the global context and conspiracy theories to misinformation, disinformation and social media’s role; from the arguments around mandates to social cohesion.
As we continue to struggle against commercial headwinds, contributions from our members are more critical than ever – we simply couldn’t do this work without their support. If you value what we do, please consider becoming a member today. Donate now.

Two major supermarket chains making $1 million daily in excess profits but Commerce Commission takes soft approach.

The country’s supermarket duopoly of Woolworths and Foodstuffs has excessive profits, engages in little competition and stifles new entrants. The diagnosis of the problem hasn’t changed since the Commerce Commission’s draft market study came out in July, but the agency has retreated from any major structural reforms. Bernard Hickey read the final report and reports on the suggested tweaks for The Spinoff. They include ending restrictive covenants on land for new supermarkets and a possible new grocery regulator. The commerce minister said he might be willing to go further than the commission if prices don’t come down in the future. But as Luke Malpass writes for Stuff, a clear signal from the commission to break up the duopoly would have given the government a mission to lower the cost of living.

The soaring cost of everything is now the main battle at parliament.

Earlier this week the prime minister refused to call the current surge in prices a “crisis” and the opposition has pounced. While National’s Christopher Luxon puts the blame at the government’s feet, Jacinda Ardern says it’s only supply chain issues and the price of crude oil, according to the NZ Herald. There’s worse on the horizon, as ANZ now warns inflation could hit 7.4% due to the Russian war. RNZ reports that petrol retailers are struggling with more thefts as prices rise at the pump. The Commerce Commission’s timid report on groceries is unlikely to have any impact at the checkout for some time. I was at the commission when the report was released and the immediate reaction seemed to border between disbelief and resignation at what had happened.

Covid-positive health workers cleared to work in Covid wards.

Reflecting the growing worker shortages in hospitals, doctors and nurses who are Covid-positive can now keep working as long as they only look after Covid patients, the ministry of health announced yesterday. Those working in non-Covid areas need two negative rapid tests before they can return to work. Health unions told One News that it’s a “desperate” move that will pressure sick doctors and nurses to keep working when they should be resting.

Wellington airport is going to court to stop a pedestrian crossing.

There are few better examples of the planning dysfunction in the capital than the ongoing sage over a single pedestrian crossing. There’s a popular cycling and walking path on Evans Bay and the also popular ASB Sports Centre is across Cobham Drive. To stop people from running across 70kmh traffic, Waka Kotahi wants to install a pedestrian crossing. The nearest one is nearly a kilometre away. As the Dominion Post reports, Wellington airport is demanding a judicial review. The airport argues Cobham Drive is the first experience many have of the capital and the crossing could slow traffic. The average drive to Khandallah could be slowed by 50 seconds. There have been 528 accidents on the road over the past 12 years from cyclists and pedestrians trying to run across.

After weeks of downpours, Sydney faces evacuations from flooding.

Many rivers in eastern Australia were already swollen before another torrent of rain drenched Sydney. Deaths have been reported, according to Reuters, as snap evacuation orders have gone out in Queensland and New South Wales. Rescue and recovery efforts from earlier flooding has been disrupted by renewed rains, with the commonwealth government calling in more soldiers to help. The next 24 hours will be tough for many in Sydney.

Got some feedback about The Bulletin, or anything in the news? Get in touch with me at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz

Right now on The Spinoff:

Siouxsie Wiles & Toby Morris explain why you might have symptoms and your Rats keeps coming back negative. Dylan Reeve reports on whether tech platforms are creating extra problems for renters. Reweti Kohere writes about two friends crafting spiced rum in New Zealand. Justin Latif explains why a new bus service for Ihumātao is cautiously welcomed. Tara Ward watches a new kids show called Bird’s Eye that mixes comedy and birds.

The chaos at the centre of Greek football.

Exploding ovens, fixed games, red cards that appear out of nowhere. Welcome to Green football. The BBC has looked at the state of a game where no effort to clean things up has worked. Corruption always seems to find a way. “Greek football is a hydra with many heads. You cut one, others emerge,” according to a former referee.