One year on from Election 2023, what do we know about the next?
One year on from Election 2023, what do we know about the next?
NZ First is already eyeing up its 2026 campaign, while Labour is promising a 'reset'.
Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin for Monday, October 14.
In today’s edition: The evolution of Judith Collins, a roaring start to the America’s Cup, and the iwi and hapū-led projects on the fast track for Māori. But first, it’s 12 months since New Zealanders voted for change in the 2023 election. What has happened since, and where are we heading?
12 months since a vote for change
It’s exactly one year since New Zealanders headed to the polls in the 2023 general election, though as we should all remember, not quite a year since the coalition government came into power. 1News’ Anna Murray has looked back at the past 12 months, reflecting on what the government has managed to tick off its to-do list thus far. Seeing the list of achievements in rough chronological order really highlights just how much of the government’s initial work was about stopping work introduced by Labour – from the clean car discount to Let’s Get Wellington Moving, through to the possibility of letting 16 year olds vote in local elections. Soon after, work was under way to introduce and pass numerous new pieces of legislation, with Christopher Luxon announcing business-like “quarterly plans” that focused on key areas.
On The Spinoff this morning, we’ve published an extract from Back on Track? The New Zealand General Election 2023, edited by Stephen Levine, a collection of personal reflections on last year’s campaign. In an excerpt from the book, Luke Oldfield looks at the populism, starting with the protest at parliament in 2022. Turning to Labour, Oldfield suggests the party seemed “unwilling or unable to respond” to the then-opposition’s populist messaging, which in part contributed to the crushing defeat and “inevitably” played a role in Winston Peters’ return to parliament.
NZ First eyeing up 2026
Speaking of Winston Peters, one narrative that has built over the past 12 months has been the resurgence of New Zealand First. The party has famously struggled to stay in parliament for more than one term after being in government and, as noted in a recent column for the Herald (paywalled) by Matthew Hooton, support for the party often slips away quickly after an election result. But not this time, with almost all polls (bar a 1News Verian poll in April) showing New Zealand First comfortably above 5%.
Leader (and current deputy PM) Winston Peters sent a clear message to supporters and detractors while speaking in Hamilton yesterday. “We're getting ready to be fully prepared to do much better,” said Peters of the 2026 election. “But no political party has been under so much scrutiny and criticism unfairly than the party you're a member of.” And evoking his favourite, Chumbawamba: “We get knocked down, but we get up again.”
Peters was in Hamilton for the New Zealand First annual conference, which this year was attended by about 900 people (and disrupted by several protesters). In a lengthy address yesterday, Peters revealed new party policy (not yet signed onto by the coalition) in the form of a proposed $100b infrastructure fund. In analysis for RNZ, Russell Palmer noted that while Peters intends to push for this policy now, it may end up being on his party’s agenda come 2026 if he can’t win over his cabinet colleagues. With his tenure as deputy prime minister nearing its end, it’s not out of the question that Peters’ re-election campaign is already about to begin.
Coalition hoping for poll bump tonight
A new 1News Verian poll will be released tonight, which the government will be quietly hoping provides a better result than the most recent Curia poll made public before the weekend.
That poll, released while the prime minister was in Laos, provided an unwelcome book end to the first 12 months of the coalition government. As reported by The Post, it had support for National down by 4.1 points to 34.9% while Labour had bounced up 3.6% to 30.3%. While it wouldn’t result in a change of government – the centre left bloc would still be a handful of seats short – it’s an interesting indicator of the lukewarm support for both major parties. Polls routinely bump around and none can be taken in isolation, but bar the occasional outlier the trend of the past 12 months has been one of consistency as both blocs have remained relatively steady. Christopher Luxon, unsurprisingly, told reporters: “I just don’t care”.
Writing for Interest, Dan Brunskill suggested that National’s latest drop in support could be due to a series of controversies related to issues of health, from Casey Costello’s questionable smoke free proposals to the recent move to downscale the Dunedin Hospital development.
Labour planning ‘reset moment’
Many commentators saw the collapse of Labour as the defining narrative of last year’s election. “No matter the extenuating circumstances, and again there were many, to go from a historic high, above 50% in the 2020 election, to a result last night below 27%? A horror show,” wrote The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire the day after the election.
The party has spent the last year in reflection mode. In an interview with me last December, Chris Hipkins said he was looking to develop a a “refreshed manifesto” and “a really clear vision for the future of the country” in time for the 2026 election.
Labour has remained relatively quiet over the past year, opting not to “bark at every passing car”. That approach is going to have to change soon. Speaking to AAP in a piece shared here by the Otago Daily Times, Hipkins remained determined he could refresh and reinvigorate his party in time for the 2026 election. "We've spent a year not really talking about what we would do differently because we wanted to hear from people,” said Hipkins, who expects to reveal the party's new direction in a speech next month.
"It will be the reset moment.”
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America’s Cup: Team NZ leads 3-0 in first to seven series
Team New Zealand has got off to a roaring start in the America’s Cup, leading 3-0 over challengers INEOS Britannia. Stuff’s Todd Niall, who is on the ground in Barcelona, reported that the second morning of sailing came close to disaster in race three after the boats converged and then swerved away with foils very close. “Both teams protested, and the British copped a penalty, having to drop back 75 metres,” Niall reported.
In a post-race interview, Team NZ skipper Peter Burling described the incident as “a little bit uncomfortable” but said it was “great to get a penalty and control the rest from it”.
New Zealand is trying to win its third straight America’s Cup, while Britain has never secured the Auld Mug.
The rebranding of Judith Collins
Judith Collins will head to Europe today for a Nato defence meeting. One year after last year’s election, it’s hard not to think about the recent re-evolution of Collins, who at one point had hoped to lead National to victory in 2023 after a crushing defeat three years earlier. In an interview with the Herald’s Audrey Young (paywalled), Collins said she “did not shed a tear” after being rolled as leader by her party back in 2021. “It was a massive relief not to have that burden to carry.”
After laying low and initially ranking number 19 in Christopher Luxon’s shadow cabinet, Collins jumped up the list last year and picked up more portfolios than anyone else in the coalition. She had always wanted the defence role. “I just find it a joy to go to work every day. I know I’ve had to deal with some pretty difficult situations like we’ve had recently but actually I find my work a joy. I love it so much.”
Speaking of difficult situations, Collins also cropped up on TVNZ’s Q+A yesterday morning, where she reflected on the recent sinking of HMNZS Manawanui. Collins defended the decision for the ship to be evacuated. "What I said to the prime minister is, 'We could've had 75 body bags…’ and I am just so grateful nobody died. I am devastated by the loss of a ship, but I don't know that I could've coped with 75 body bags."
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Click and Collect
A couple of fast track pieces for you this morning. Firstly, in The Spinoff, The iwi and hapū-led projects on the fast track for Māori. Meanwhile, The Post runs through ten controversial projects on the fast track list.
How Act could get a Treaty principles referendum regardless of what the PM says.
Speed bumps: Number of cancelled Auckland projects revealed.
Why the last boot camps failed, and what might make Christopher Luxon’s ones better. (NZ Herald Premium, paywalled)
Newsroom’s Mark Jennings looks at the proposal to close the 1News website, and explains why the chances of the broadcaster outsourcing its news has increased.
Why are Ashley Bloomfield and Graham Henry fronting new herpes campaign?
Trade Me says it made a mistake in how it told a Waikato artist why his portrait of Christopher Luxon was removed from sale, but stands by the decision.
The government is moving forward with plans to change or remove Treaty of Waitangi provisions in 28 laws. (Newsroom Pro, paywalled)
Join us for a one-night only live event
We’re huge fans of local television here at The Spinoff, and for one night only we want to celebrate some of our all-time faves. Join Alex Casey, Kura Forrester, Rhiannon McCall, Stewart Sowman-Lund and Lyric Waiwiri-Smith at Q Theatre on October 31 as we unearth some beloved TV gems and argue for their place in our history.
Shanti Mathias hates “CAPTCHAs”, the unnecessary ritual of having to prove you’re a human being. For The Spinoff Essay, Maya Field explains why young women are “rotting” in their bedrooms. Ben Fagan reveals how his collection of Funko Pops ended up in Te Papa. Claire Mabey asks: Is celebrity book culture… good, actually? Alex Casey talks to filmmaker Alexis Smith about documenting her journey to communicate with extraterrestrial life. Former All Black and current Celebrity Treasure Island castaway Christian Cullen looks back on his life in TV. Kirsten Morrell shares her perfect weekend playlist. Nick Iles shares where to find Wellington’s best hot chips.
That’s it for this morning, thanks for reading. See you back here tomorrow.
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